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 Post subject: Get Ready for Winter This Week
Post Posted: Oct 7, 2019 8:40 am 
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After a mild start early this week, residents are in for a blast of winter late this week....

Monday through Wednesday will feature dry conditions statewide with elevated fire danger. Temps Monday will be near average, then 5-10 degrees above average Tuesday and Wednesday. Westerly winds will also increase Tuesday into Wednesday creating dangerous fire weather conditions in the mountains and foothills.

Big change coming late Wednesday into Thursday. Upper level trough will move down from western Canada into Wyoming by late Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring a strong cold front south into CO Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temps will plummet behind cold front and be in the low 20's by Thursday morning. Snow will develop across northern CO Wednesday evening and move south by Thursday morning and then become heavy at times during the day on Thursday as temps continue to drop during the day into the low teens. Latest models bring 2-6 inches of snow into mountain and foothill areas by Thursday evening, with 1-3 inches possible over the Urban Corridor and eastern plains. With the heavier snow now forecast and very cold temps, I now believe roads will become an issue on Thursday. Initial snow likely to melt on warm roads, then will freeze with heavier snow and colder temps during the day on Thursday creating very slick roads for higher elevations in the mountains and foothills and possibly down to Metro area roads. Snow looks to mostly dissipate by Thursday night, with temps in the single digits into Friday morning. Cold day on Friday with temps in the teens to low 20's for foothill areas under mostly sunny skies.

For the weekend, dry weather is expected but temps will remain below average with snow on the ground in higher elevations.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Get Ready for Winter This Week
Post Posted: Oct 8, 2019 8:21 am 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
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Two warm and windy days before winter arrives this week. Temps Tuesday and Wednesday will be well above average and gusty westerly winds will combine with RH values below 15% to create dangerous fire weather conditions each day.

Models in good agreement on incoming winter system. Upper level low will move from ID and MT Wednesday into WY on Thursday. An associated cold front will drop south into northern CO Wednesday evening and will push south into southern CO by Wednesday night. Snow will be behind the cold front by a few hours and will push south into foothill areas around midnight Wednesday night, and then snow will persist through Thursday evening with some periods of heavy snow from Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Temp will steadily drop during the day on Thursday, with the high temp for the day right after midnight. Temp in foothill areas will be in the teens by Thursday morning and lower into the single digits Thursday night. For snowfall amounts, models still suggesting 2-6 inches will be possible in mountain and foothill areas, with 1-3 inches along the Urban Corridor, and generally less than an inch over the eastern plains. Heaviest snow amounts will be north of I-70 with this system, but locally we are likely looking at 3-4 inches. Roads are likely to become snow and ice packed during the day on Thursday, so the commute Thursday could be a tough one, especially being the first snow of the season and many people will not have made the transition to winter conditions for vehicles, so expect a messy commute on Thursday.

Conditions improve after midnight on Thursday night, but temps will be in the single digits Friday morning, so roads could still have some slick spots. Lots of sunshine expected Friday which will melt most snow on roads, but temps will remain below freezing for most foothill areas.

For the weekend, dry conditions expected statewide, but temps likely to remain a bit below average Saturday, then near average Sunday. Dry weather is expected to persist next week as well as upper ridge moves over the Rocky Mountain region, and temps will accordingly be near to above average each day.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Get Ready for Winter This Week
Post Posted: Oct 9, 2019 8:42 am 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
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warm and breezy day today ahead of incoming winter system. Temps will be 10-15 deg above average today with southwest winds of 20-45 mph and RH values below 20%, so Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon to 6 pm today. Cold front is currently in central WY and will continue to push south into CO this evening going through local areas around 8 pm. There will be some gusty northerly winds as front goes through and temps will drop rapidly. Moisture lags behind front a bit with snow developing near the CO/WY border around 6 pm and will move south of I-70 between 9 pm and midnight. Temps drop below freezing by midnight and will steadily drop during the day on Thursday. Heaviest snow looks to move through Thursday between 9 am and 3 pm as some heavier bands will develop associated with jetstream aloft. Snow will diminish by Thursday evening and mostly dissipate by midnight. For snow amounts, heaviest snow amounts will be north of I-70. Locally, most foothill areas will see 2-4 inches, with up to 6 inches possible in favored areas.

Northern and Central Mountains: 4-8 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-3 inches
Eastern Plains: less than 1 inch

The big shock will be temps. On Thursday, temps will be in the teens locally, dropping to single digits Thursday night into Friday morning. On Friday, temps remain below freezing during the day, and then back into the teens Friday night into Saturday morning.

Nice weather expected for the weekend with no precip, and temps rising but still below average Saturday, and then near average on Sunday. Dry conditions also expected next week with temps near average.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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