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 Post subject: Weather Outlook Into Late August
Post Posted: Aug 13, 2019 9:52 am 
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A mostly sunny day for most of CO today with temps near to slightly above average. Drier air has moved into much of CO west of the I-25 corridor, but moist air remains across the eastern plains. This will set up a dry line across the eastern plains this afternoon which will be the focus of convective initiation today. Storms will form along a line from about Sterling down to Limon this afternoon, and some are likely to become severe with large hail. Latest high resolution models bring easterly moist outflow from these storms back into the Urban Corridor later this evening into tonight, which may develop new storms from the I-25 corridor back into the foothills between 6 pm and midnight, so foothill areas may see some late storms this evening and tonight, although still not expecting much precip from any storms that do form.

Similar situation expected on Wednesday with best chances for storms to be on the eastern plains, and only a slight chance for any precip in foothill araes. Temps should remain near average. By Thursday, a more zonal flow aloft is over CO as a early Fall pattern develops across the U.S. This should keep drier air across most of CO, so the best chance for any precip will be across the eastern plains. Temps will be near average.

On Friday, a upper level trough will approach and will create better chances for storms to form from the Divide into the Urban Corridor, including foothill areas. Similar situation on Saturday with isolated storm chances from the mountains to the Urban Corridor.On Sunday, upper level ridge begins to re-build over the southern Rockies, which will keep CO mostly dry and warmer as temps rise above average for most areas, and only limited chances for precip.

For next week, upper level ridge intensifies over the Desert Southwest which will keep temps warm over CO. MOnday looks mostly dry, then isolated storm chances Tuesday through Thursday from the Divide to the eastern plains. Drier weather currently expected next weekend as upper ridge moves into the Great Basin and creates a drier northerly flow aloft over CO.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Late August
Post Posted: Aug 15, 2019 1:50 pm 
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Hot and mostly dry day across most of CO today. Temps running 3-10 degrees above average, and very little precip expected statewide today, with best chances around the southwest, southeast and northeast corners of the state this afternoon and evening. Some gusty westerly winds at times.

On Friday, we will see easterly outflow from a MCS expected to pass to our north tonight which is expected to cool temps from the foothill eastward a few degrees, so temps closer to average on Friday. Slightly better chances for precip Friday due to better low level moisture from the Divide east into the plains, so isolated afternoon and evening storms will be possible, but precip amounts will mostly remain light. A slight chance for storms to become severe across the eastern plains Friday afternoon/evening.

For the weekend, temps will be a little cooler on Saturday and slightly better precip chances with isolated afternoon and evening storms possible from the mountains to the plains. On Sunday, temps will be back above average and drier conditions with only a slight chance for any precip statewide.

For next week, upper level ridge will re-build back over the 4 Corners region, which should keep CO warm with mostly dry conditions which will help to increase fire danger across much of CO west of I-25. Wednesday looks to be the best chance for any precip, but it looks mostly dry Monday through Friday. Temps will be hot Monday and Tuesday, then near average Wednesday through Friday.

Most of the monsoon moisture has retreated back into Mexico, which is a little early. However, models suggest a return of higher dew points back into AZ late next week into next weekend, but it does not appear this moisture will make it up into CO, so for us, seems like monsoon season is mostly over, which is not a good sign for fire danger heading into September.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Late August
Post Posted: Aug 16, 2019 10:57 am 
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Warm and breezy day on tap across most of CO today. Brisk zonal flow aloft will translate to gusty westerly winds for mountain and foothill areas today with speeds of 15-35 mph. This combined with low RH values has prompted Red Flag Warnings across much of western CO as well as into Park county today. Temps will be near average today for most areas, and for precip most activity will be east of I-25 where better low level moisture exists. Some storms may become severe across the eastern plains this afternoon and evening. For foothill areas, little if any precip expected today.

For the weekend, Saturday will be similar to Friday with gusty westerly winds in the mountains and foothills and temps will remain near average, maybe a tad below. For precip, again nearly all precip will be east of I-25 in better low level moisture with some storms possible to be severe. Little if any precip expected in foothill areas. On Sunday, upper level ridge begins to re-build over the southern Rockies and this will act to increase temps across CO, so expect hot and mostly dry weather on SUnday with more gusty westerly winds which will increase fire danger along and west of I-25 with more Red Flag Warnings possible.

For next week, upper level ridge strengthens over the 4 Corners region early in the week, which will keep CO hot and mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. A weak cold front looks to slide across eastern CO Wednesday which will cool temps below average and increase precip chances from the Divide into the eastern plains, so best chances for precip in foothill areas will be Wednesday. Temps look to remain below average Thursday and isolated precip will be possible from the mountains into the Urban Corridor Thursday afternoon and evening. By Friday, temps return to near average and just a slight chance for isolated afternoon and evening storms.

Next weekend looks warm and mostly dry statewide.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Late August
Post Posted: Aug 19, 2019 10:51 am 
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Another hot and dry day on tap across the state today with record temps possible in many areas. Little if any precip expected, with best chance across the far eastern plains where better low level moisture exists. Tuesday will be warm again, but not quite as hot as Monday. Slightly better precip chances mostly east of I-25, but a few showers will be possible in the mountains and foothills, although any precip would be light. Models suggest a cold front will move across eastern CO Tuesday night which will usher in cooler air with better moisture for Wednesday. Models anticipate much better precip chances beginning in the mountains Wednesday morning and moving east into the foothills and plains by late afternoon and evening. Storms may become severe east of I-25 with large hail and a few tornadoes possible. Locally, we could see 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain Wednesday, which is appreciated as we move into a much drier pattern. The Monsoon has ended quite early this year, which will present fire danger issues into Fall for much of CO. On Thursday, temps will remain slightly below average and we will again have chances for measurable precip, but just not very much.

By Friday, the upper level ridge has moved back over CA leaving CO under a dry westerly flow aloft. Temps should return to average and only expecting isolated precip chances, mostly east of I-25. For the weekend, the upper ridge intensifies over the Great Basin which will leave CO warm and mostly dry with temps above average. Little if any precip expected statewide for the weekend, which will again raise fire danger concerns for much of the state, especially west of I-25.

For next week, models keep the upper ridge anchored over the Great Basin which will keep CO warm and mostly dry Monday through Friday and the pattern is likely to extend through next weekend, so expect above average temps and little if any precip next week, which will continue the trend of higher fire danger.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Late August
Post Posted: Aug 21, 2019 7:50 am 
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Cooler and moist air has moved into eastern CO overnight with low clouds and fog into the foothills up to about 8000 ft this morning. West of the foothills warmer temps and mostly sunny skies. The increased moisture will help fuel storms this afternoon from the Divide east into the plains. Storms will initiate where abundant sunshine prevails and then move slowly east into more favorable moisture. Latest HiRes models suggest storms will form shortly after Noon and then become likely later this afternoon and evening. SPC has put most of eastern CO under a marginal risk risk for severe thunderstorms from the foothills east, with large hail and heavy rainfall being the primary threats today. Due to weak upper winds, storms will move slowly today, generally under 10 mph, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible under stronger storms. Models suggest foothill areas could see 0.10 t0 0.25 inches of rain today, but locally 1-2 inches will be possible under heavier storms, especially farther east of I-25. Activity could persist through about 10 pm. Temps will be below average today, so enjoy the break from the heat.

On Thursday, enough low level moisture will remain over eastern CO to produce another round of afternoon storms from the Divide east. Expect less rainfall versus Wednesday, but still enough to reduce fire danger temporarily. Temps will likely remain a below average.

On Friday, a weak upper trough will pass to our north, and it should provide enough instability to fire off a few isolated afternoon storms from the mountains to the plains, with best chances north of I-70 for heavier precip. Temps will be close to average.

For the weekend, upper level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific leaving CO under a northwest flow aloft. This will create warmer conditions and mostly dry conditions as well. Temps Saturday will be slightly above average, and then hot weather returns on Sunday with temps well above average and possibly near record levels. For precip, little if any expected statewide this weekend, and some gusty westerly winds will be possible which will increase fire danger west of I-25.

For next week, upper ridge remains over the Pacific early in the week, then builds over the Great Basin later in the week. Monday looks to remain warm and mostly dry. Tuesday and Wednesday temps cool below average and a chance for some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms from the mountains to the Urban Corridor exist. Then warmer and drier weather Thursday into Friday that should persist into next weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Late August
Post Posted: Aug 23, 2019 10:16 am 
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A mostly cloudy start to the day today as an upper level trough will pass to our north today. The upper trough will provide enough lift and instability to produce some strong thunderstorms across eastern CO today. Farther west, moisture is sparse so only a few isolated storms will be possible west of I-25 today. Across eastern CO, storms look to develop along a dry line from about Ft. Morgan to Limon and then move slowly east during thew afternoon and evening. SPC has a slight risk for severe storms with large hail and heavy rainfall possible, as the far eastern plains are under a Flash Flood Watch today as well as 1-2 inches of rain will be possible. Locally, little if any precip likely today. Temps will be near average today.

For the weekend, upper ridge builds over CA which will keep CO under a mostly dry and warm northwest flow aloft. Little is any precip expected statewide this weekend, and temps will be slightly above average Saturday, and 5-10 degrees above average Sunday with record temps possible. Combined with gusty westerly winds and low RH values, most of CO west of I-25 will be under increased fire danger this weekend.

For next week, a cold front moves across eastern CO early Monday morning, which will usher in cooler air with higher dew points from the Divide east. Hence, temps will be below average east of the Divide and there will be a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms from the Divide into the Urban Corridor. Temps will remain below average Tuesday and precip chances will extend from the Divide to the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, although precip amounts look to remain light.

From Wednesday into next weekend, upper level ridge will build over the 4 Corners region which should keep temps near to slightly above average. For precip, Wednesday and Thursday look mostly dry, then better precip chances Friday into next weekend with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Given the lack of any heavy precip west of I-25, ground fuels will continue their annual dry out and fire danger will remain elevated.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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