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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Late June
Post Posted: Jun 12, 2019 7:59 am 
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Mostly cloudy start to the day today, but sun should make it through this afternoon. Slight chance for an afternoon storm today, with best chances south of I-70, but precip should remain light. Temps will remain a bit below average today statewide. Storm motion will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph today.

Better precip chances statewide on Thursday and Friday as weak upper trough moves across the state. Flow will become westerly aloft, so storm motion will be from the west at 10-20 mph each day. Temps will rise to average or slightly above each day. There will be a marginal risk for thunderstorms to become severe across the far eastern plains each day, with the primary threat of moderate sized hail and strong winds.

Weekend should also have decent precip chances each day with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms developing and moving from the west at 10-20 mph each day.

For next week, upper level trough will move into the northern Great Basin late next week, which will keep flow aloft westerly early in the week then turn southwesterly late next week. Temps should remain near average early in the week, rising above average lat in the week. For precip, decent chances early in the week, then drying out late in the week.

Expect streams and rivers to remain at very high levels in the mountains over the next 3-4 weeks as deep snow melt continues across the state. Hiking across what our usually slow running streams may be difficult with fast and cold high water, so exercise caution in the High Country.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late June
Post Posted: Jun 14, 2019 7:49 am 
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Fairly nice early summer day on tap across the state. Temps will be near average for most areas today, and isolated afternoon and evening storms will develop and move from the west at 10-20 mph. Storms may become severe across eastern CO today, but in general precip amounts should remain under 0.10 inches for foothill areas. Activity should diminish shortly after sunset.

For the weekend, a weak upper trough will pass over CO and this will enhance our precip chances each day. Temps will likely be a bit below average due to more abundant cloud cover and cooler outflow from storms. Storms will form early and move from west to east at 10-20 mph each day. Storms may become severe across eastern plains, with highest chances on Saturday. Models suggest foothill areas could see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of precip this weekend.

For next week, Monday and Tuesday should see good precip chances as another weal upper trough moves over CO. Flow aloft will be northwesterly and that will be the storm direction as well. Temps will remain a bit below average each day. Wednesday through Friday flow aloft becomes more westerly, and this will dry things out and warm temps up to at least average, maybe a bit above average. Precip should be pretty isolated each day.

Next weekend, temps should be near average with slightly better precip chances Saturday, then mostly dry on Sunday.

Looking ahead to our Monsoon season, latest information suggests we could see a later start to the North American Monsoon this year due to the increased moisture across the Desert Southwest. However, as El Nino conditions are expected to persist through Fall, the warmer ocean temps in the eastern Pacific could enhance Monsoon precip in July and August as more tropical systems are expected in the eastern Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center continues to call for above average precip over CO through August with temps remaining mostly below average.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late June
Post Posted: Jun 16, 2019 7:36 am 
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Happy Fathers Day to all the fathers out there.

Nice start to the day today, but storms will begin to develop around Noon and move from the west at 5-15 mph. Foothill areas likely to see about 0.10 inches of precip up to 0.25 in areas with heavier storms. Storms may become severe across the northeast plains this afternoon and evening. Activity should die down after sunset in foothill areas, and may linger through midnight across the eastern plains. Temps should be slightly below average today most areas.

For the week ahead, good precip chances Monday and Tuesday as temps remain below average, then drier and warmer Wednesday through Friday. Better precip chances return Saturday into Sunday as temps drop below average.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late June
Post Posted: Jun 17, 2019 8:14 am 
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Today looks to be mostly cloudy and potentially soggy. Weak upper trough will move over the state and this combined with good low and mid level moisture will produce several rounds of thunderstorms that will move from the mountains into the plains. Storm motion will be from the west at 5-15 mph, and SPC has put most of eastern CO in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, and a marginal risk extends into foothill areas. Primary threat will be large hail on the plains, with hail up to 1 inch possible in storms in foothill areas. Storms should start just before Noon, and several waves will pass through this afternoon and evening, and latest HRRR models suggest storms may persist through midnight in some areas. Models suggest rainfall amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 inches common in foothill areas, with up to 1 inch possible where heavier storms pass. Localized flooding will be possible in areas with heavier storms today with up to 2 inches of rainfall possible over the eastern plains. As with all thunderstorms, risk of frequent lightning will be prevalent. Roads may have standing water during heavier storms, so a reminder to please turn lights on when driving in rain, and slower speeds advised when standing water is present.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late June
Post Posted: Jun 18, 2019 7:18 am 
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Our cool and wet early summer pattern will continue today. Early low clouds will give way to partial sun later this morning, but will be followed quickly by another round of storms that will move through foothill areas between 11 am and 2 pm. Storm motion today will be from the west at 5-15 mph. A second wave of storms is forecast by HRRR model to move through this evening with activity persisting through about 10 pm. Only a marginal risk of severe storms today across southeast CO, so primary threat today is heavy rainfall and lightning. Models suggest up to 0.50 inches of rain will be possible in foothill areas today, with up to an inch or more in some areas where heavier storms pass. Temps will remain well below average today locally.

Drier and warmer weather is on tap for Wednesday into Thursday. Only some isolated afternoon showers are forecast each day with best chances across the far eastern plains and mountains. Temps should warm to near average values.

Then a cold front will push south across CO Thursday night which will bring cooler temps statewide on Friday and better precip chances Friday afternoon and evening. Cool temps and better precip chances will remain in place Saturday as well. Sunday will have drier conditions and temps back to near average.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late June
Post Posted: Jun 19, 2019 2:09 pm 
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Some warmer and drier air today across most of CO, although some breezy northwest winds at higher elevations of the mountains and foothills that will persist into Thursday. Only a few very isolated showers expected today, so most areas will remain dry today as temps warm to near average values for most areas.

Similar day on tap for Thursday, as temps remain near average and most precip will remain north of I-70. Winds become southwesterly on Thursday but will remain breezy at times.

Hopefully you enjoyed your two days of summer, as models suggest a much cooler and wetter pattern Friday through Sunday across our state. A cold front is expected to drop south over CO Thursday night into Friday morning. Precip will remain possible Thursday night north of I-70 along cold front. Cooler air and northeast flow will create low clouds and precip chances over eastern CO Friday afternoon and evening. Low clouds and fog will likely persist in our foothills into Saturday morning, as temps drop into the upper 30's Saturday morning and snow will be possible over mountain areas above 10,000 ft Friday night into Saturday morning. Yes, it will be officially summer and the "s" word is being used, just that kind of year.

On Saturday, a deep upper level trough will move over the northern Rockies, and a piece of energy will swing south across CO during the day. This will increase precip chances from west to east during the day, with showers and thunderstorms likely Saturday afternoon and evening locally. Precip should mostly end in our foothills by midnight, but snow will persist over mountain areas above 9000-10,000 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning, with several inches possible. I doubt we will see much if any snow locally, but temps will drop into the mid to upper 30's Saturday night into Sunday morning, so tender vegetation may need protection. Temps will be 20-30 degrees below average Saturday and Sunday for most areas of the state. On Sunday, precip will be mostly confined to mountain areas, but a few showers locally are not out of the question.

For next week, summer returns. Upper level ridge builds over CO as upper low develops off the Orregon coast, leaving CO under a mostly dry and warm southwest flow aloft. Precip should be minimal Monday through Friday and temps should be at to slightly above average all week. Next weekend should remain dry as temps warm to 5-15 degrees above average.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late June
Post Posted: Jun 23, 2019 12:09 pm 
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So after a very cold start to summer, it appears summer weather will return to CO this week. One more day of cool weather today as temps will remain some 20-30 degrees below average statewide. For precip today, mostly isolated showers over the mountains and northeast plains that will move from the northwest at 15-25 mph. A stray shower is possible in foothill areas today, but any precip would be on the light side.

For the week ahead, models build an upper level ridge over southwest TX during the week, and this will create a warm and dry southwest flow aloft over CO. Temps will be slightly below average Monday and Tuesday, but will ample sunshine it will feel summer like. Temps then rise above average Wednesday into the weekend, with 90's likely across much of eastern CO, and finally 70's to low 80's in foothill areas. For precip, models suggest only a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, mostly over higher terrain. Thursday into the weekend looks mostly dry statewide.

The following week, models keep upper level ridge over the southern Rockies which will keep warm temps across CO. Models hint that by late in the week (early July) we may begin to see Monsoon moisture moving north from Mexico, but still too early to tell exactly when the North American Monsoon may begin as average daily dew points still in the mid 30's over Tucson, but as upper level ridge become established it will begin to bring moisture northward from Mexico.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late June
Post Posted: Jun 25, 2019 8:46 am 
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Summer is finally beginning to settle in across our state. Upper level ridge will build from the southern Plains over the state this week as deep upper low develops off the Pacific Northwest coast. This will keep a warm and relatively dry southwest flow aloft over CO through the weekend. There is just enough moisture and instability to fire off a few isolated thunderstorms each day this week, but any precip will likely remain on the light side. Temps will warm above average Wednesday into the weekend, with Thursday and Friday being the warmest days. The weekend appears to have the best precip chances as models suggest better coverage and intensity for storms this weekend.

For next week, model build upper level ridge farther west from the Desert Southwest up into CO. This will keep temps above average through the Holiday weekend, and precip will remain mostly isolated and on the light side. Withe the upper level ridge axis over the Desert Southwest, this will inhibit the start of the North American Monsoon, so it appears the monsoon will be delayed from it's usual start in early July, which is not uncommon when the Southwest has had above average precip in the Spring months. Since we have had above average precip this Spring, I suspect not many will complain about a delay in the onset of our monsoon season as fire danger remains low across most of CO.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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