Front Range Foothills / Denver Metro Weather Briefing – 5 July, 2012 – 0755 hrs MDT
Synopsis – Today will be the last day of high temps in the 80’s for at least a week. Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and foothills this afternoon and may drift into the western metro. For the foothills, locally heavy rains are possible that may trigger flash flooding and debris flows in the burn areas along with dangerous, frequent cloud to ground lightning
For the long term forecast: a cooler, more moist and unsettled weather pattern will set up on Friday and will remain over the region through the weekend. The high temps on Saturday will be in the 70’s in the metro and in the 60’s and 70’s in the foothills. Temps will return to normal with highs in the 80 and 70 through Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms on Friday will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall over and east of the Front Range during the afternoon and evening. There will be a continued chance for thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with less of a chance for storms on Monday with the airmass becoming drier and warmer. A large high pressure ridge over the Great Plains is forecast to slowly shift west over Colorado during the weekend and eventually over the great basin by early next week.
Watches & Warning: None are this time. However flash flood watches / advisories maybe issued in the foothills in and around the recent burn areas of JeffCo and Boulder County.
Hazardous Weather Outlook for today and tonight: Moisture levels have increased across the entire area this morning and will result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity in the mountains and foothills this afternoon and evening. Expect heavy rain and gusty winds with the storms. Rainfall rates may approach an inch in 30 minutes with the stronger storms.
For Friday through Wednesday: The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase on Friday as a moist and cooler airmass sets up over the region. Upslope flow behind a weak cold front will probably concentrate most of the precipitation, some of which may be heavy at times, over and near the Front Range Friday afternoon and evening. Storms on the plains could linger for most of Friday night where one or two storms could produce large hail and heavy rainfall. Areas recently burned over by wildfire will be susceptible to flash flooding should heavy rainfall develop. There will be a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, especially over and near the Front Range. Cloud cover and upslope flow will produce below average temperatures in many areas this weekend. By early next week, temperatures should slowly rebound as the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms decreases each day.
Front Range Foothills Forecast
Today A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South southeast wind 5 to 11 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Tonight A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Friday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming east in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Friday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Saturday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming south southeast 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
West Denver Metro Area Forecast
Today A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 94. Light south southeast wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph.
Tonight A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 7 to 15 mph becoming west northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Friday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east in the morning.
Friday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph.
Saturday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming south southeast 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Fire Weather for Zone 239 (Below 6000 feet) –
Today...
Sky/weather.........partly cloudy (40-50%) until 1200...then mostly cloudy (60-65%). Slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max temperature.....93-97.
24 hr trend......little change.
Min humidity........17-21%.
24 hr trend......4-7% wetter.
20-foot winds.......variable less than 8 mph becoming south 8-13 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Haines index........3 very low.
LAL.................1 until 1200...then 3.
CWR.................0 percent.
10k ft free winds...south 15-25 mph.
Mixing height.......below 1000 ft agl until 0700. 13500-14500 ft agl after 1200.
Transport winds.....light and variable until 1000...then south 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....poor until 1000. Excellent after 1200.
Tonight...
Sky/weather.........mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms until 2400...then slight chance of thunderstorms until 0300.
Min temperature.....60-64.
24 hr trend......2-4 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........69-73%.
24 hr trend......4-7% wetter.
20-foot winds.......southwest 8-13 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming variable less than 8 mph.
Haines index........3 very low.
LAL.................4 until 2400...then 2 until 0300...then 1.
CWR.................10 percent until 2400...then 0 percent.
10k ft free winds...south 15-20 mph.
Mixing height.......14000 ft agl until 2400...then below 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....southwest around 10 mph until 2400...then light and variable.
Smoke dispersal.....good until 2400...then poor.
Friday...
Sky/weather.........mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200...then chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....86-90.
24 hr trend......4-7 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........31-35%.
24 hr trend......7-10% wetter.
20-foot winds.......variable less than 8 mph.
Haines index........2 very low.
LAL.................3 until 1200...then 4.
CWR.................0 percent until 1200...then 20 percent.
10k ft free winds...southwest 15-20 mph.
Mixing height.......below 1000 ft agl until 0700...then 10000-11000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....light and variable.
Smoke dispersal.....poor until 1200...then fair.
Fire Weather Zone 216 (Above 6000 Feet)
Today...
Sky/weather.........partly cloudy (40-50%) until 1000...then mostly cloudy. Widely scattered thunderstorms after 1000 until 1200...then chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....80-90.
24 hr trend......little change.
Min humidity........20-26%.
24 hr trend......4-7% wetter.
20-foot winds.......
Valleys / lower slopes...upslope / upvalley 4-10 mph becoming southeast 8-13 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges / upper slopes....upslope / upvalley 4-10 mph becoming southeast 8-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Haines index........3 very low.
LAL.................1 until 1000...then 3 until 1200...then 4.
CWR.................0 percent until 1200...then 20 percent.
10k ft free winds...south 15-20 mph.
Mixing height.......below 1000 ft agl until 0700...then 12000-13000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....light and variable until 0900...then south 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....poor until 1000. Very good after 1200.
Tonight...
Sky/weather.........mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms until 2400...then slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....52-60.
24 hr trend......little change.
Max humidity........67-75%.
24 hr trend......4-7% wetter.
20-foot winds.......
Valleys / lower slopes...downslope / downvalley 2-8 mph becoming west 8-12 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Ridges / upper slopes....downslope / downvalley 2-8 mph.
Haines index........2 very low.
LAL.................4 until 2400...then 3 until 0300...then 2.
CWR.................20 percent until 2400...then 0 percent.
10k ft free winds...south 15-20 mph.
Mixing height.......12500 ft agl until 2400...then below 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....southwest around 10 mph until 2400...then light and variable.
Smoke dispersal.....fair until 2400...then poor.
Friday...
Sky/weather.........mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200...then chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....73-83.
24 hr trend......4-7 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........34-42%.
24 hr trend......7-10% wetter.
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