Monday June 25

Our blistering heat will continue through Wednesday as a very strong upper High will remain over KS. The clockwise upper flow around the high will bring some mid level moisture into CO from the south, so there will be slightly better chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms this week. SO far today, Denver has again broken the record high temp for this date at 102, and many areas have single digit RH values this afternoon, so another very tough day for firefighters. It is likely Denver will tie the record of 5 consecutive 100 degree days on Tuesday, last set in 1994, but Wednesday will be iffy with increased cloud cover. Models indicate majority of activity today will exist over the High Country.The issue is that any precipitation from these storms is expected to be on the light side, and storms may cause strong and eratic outlow winds and lightning, which hampers fire fighting efforts. Winds today will be from the south to southeast from the foothills east, and south to southwest from the foothills west. This wind will likely push fires in a northerly direction today, as well as to the northwest and northeast as terrain allows.

Tuesday through Thursday will see more hot temps, although we should see an increase in afternoon clouds and better chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday through Thursday. We may even see measurable precipitation in some areas, although not likely enough to help firefighting efforts, and with any storms will come outflow winds and lightning. We basically have a monsoon type flow this week, but without the significant monsoon moisture. Surface winds will become more southwest to west Tuesday through Thusday.

Reg Flag conditions likely to extend at least into Wednesday and possibly Thursday for much of CO. The upper ridge currently over KS is forecast to slowly move over southern AZ by later this week, so flow aloft over CO becomes more westerly which will limit any monsoonal moisture from making it's way into CO. Models indicate a hot and dry weekend ahead. Long range models build the upper ridge back into the southern Rockies and southern Plains next week, which will keep temps across CO above seasonal norms. Our only hope is that some monsoonal moisture moves north from northern Mexico into CO by this time, although we need the upper ridge to build more into TX/LA for this to happen.

The good news is that Tucson, AZ will officially begin the North American Monsoon later today as they will have had 3 consecutive days with the average dew point tempertaure above 54 deg F. It looks like it will take some time before this moisture moves farther north though, but the good news is that the monsoon season has started earlier than normal, so we can hope that as the monsoon moves farther north we begin to see better chances for precipitation to ease our extreme fire conditions. I currently see 70 deg F dew point temps across northern Mexico, so the moisture exists over northern Mexico, we now just need a mechanism to transport this moisture northward.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Debby is meandering in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, giving Florida a lot of rainfall. The storm is expected to remain at tropical storm strength as it slowly moves to the east. The storm is currently expected to move across northern Florida this weekend, and then meander up the southeast U.S. coast next week, so lots of precip with some flooding expected for this region.

Update Tuesday June 26

Another hot day with Reg Flag Warnings. I don't think I have ever seen this many consecutive days with Reg Flag Warnings. Temp has already reached 100 degress at DIA, so this ties the Denver record for most consecutive 100 degree days at 5. Denver also tied the all time high temp with a 105 recorded on Monday, which also set a new record high temp for the moth of June. This combined today with more single digit RH values and gusty south to southwest winds is another bad day for fire fighters. Wind direction today favors fire growth to the north and northeast primarily, but fires can also move to the northwest, especially if terrain favors that direction. Flow aloft from the south to southwest which will likely bring some limited monsoonal moisture into the High Country which will aid shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Storms may move into the foothills and adjacent Plains by late afternoon into evening. Storms will likely contain only limited precip due to very dry lower levels, but will contain gusty outflow winds and lightning, so bigger concern will be new fire starts due to lightning strikes. Around my proprty it is about the driest I have ever seen since 2006.

Wednesday looks like better chances for seeing measurable precipitation from afternoon/evening storms from the High Country across the foothills and into the Plains as we get a better surge of monsoon moisture from the southwest. Temps will still be hot, so breaking the 100 degree mark for a 6th consecutive day will be questionable with the additional cloud cover expected on Wednesday, but it will be close. Winds on Wednesday look to be mostly from the soutwest, shifting to more westerly by Wednesday evening. Once again, storms on Wednesday will bring more gusty outflow winds and lightning, although hopefully some measurable precipitation as well.

Thursday looks to be very similar to Wednesday, with a decent chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms building over the High Country and moving east across the foothills and into the Plains. Winds look mostly westerly and could turn from the northwest by Thursday evening.

By Friday the upper ridge will begin to decrease in intensity a bit and move into southern AZ. This will bring a more westerly flow aloft to CO which will inhibit any monsoonal moisture, so precip chances look very low Friday through Sunday, and temps will remain very warm with readings 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. We may not be in the 100's on the Plains, but easily mid to upper 90's. RH values will remain very low with gusty afternoon winds, so more red flag conditions likely Friday through Sunday.

Unfortunately no real relief from the hot and dry weather in the extended outlook. Even though the monsoon has officially begun in Tucson, models don't predict a good mechanism to transport that moisture into CO for at least the next 3-7 days.

Tropical Storm Debby nearing the northwest Florida coast and is now beginning to move consistently to the east northeast. TPC models predict the storm to move across northern FL on Wednesday on a track through Gainsville. Winds really not that strong at 40-45 mph, but very heavy rains will continue until the storm moves off into the Atlantic. I'm normally not envious of much in Florida, but right now I would sure like some of their rain for CO. Some areas in FL have received 20 inches of rain over the past 72 hours.