A nice round of showers and thunderstorms yesterday, and fairly early for our first rain of the season. Typically first rain is in May, but every year is a little difefrent. Since it's Spring, that means the weather will be changing, and this weekend we go back into winter mode.

Models are in decent agreement on the track and timing with our upcoming system, although with some minor differences. I'm currently leaning towards the NAM/WRF model solution, so based on latest run, forecast looks something like this:

Upper low will track from CA into southern NV on Saturday morning, then to the 4 Corners Saturday evening, into southeast CO Sunday morning and off into NE Sunday evening. This is a more southern track than yesterday, which means more precip for the foothills and Plains. At the surface, we will see some light showers this afternoon and evening, but mosly west of the Divde and across the far northeast Plains, where there is a slight chance for severe storms. Friday should be the calm before the storm, with only widely scattered showers west of the Divide, mostly in the afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft.

We begin to see the impacts from this system Saturday. Precip will move into western CO Saturday but remain mostly west of Vail Pass through noon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Precip moves east of the Divide Saturday afternoon with snow level 7500-8500 ft in the foothills. Precip becomes heavy Saturday night into Sunday east of the Divide. Surface low sets up over southwest KS and provides a good upslope flow across eastern CO. This system could also have embedded convective elements, so isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday night into Sunday morning which could cause brief heavy snowfall rates. Snow level should lower to Plains level by midnight, so Urban Corridor will see mostly snow from this system. With warm asphalt, most accumulation will stay on grassy surfaces below 6000 ft, but slush likely on roads and streets. For the foothills, we will see a good Spring snowstorm from Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. Models output of liquid equivalent over an inch from this system, so I can see 5-10 inches of snow with the potential for over a foot in some favored areas, and this will be the nice wet and heavy variety, so downed tree limbs and power outages a possibility. Roads will become snow and ice packed by late Saturday night into Sunday, so travel will be treacherous with ice likely under snow on roads. Snow should be winding down Sunday night turning to showers and flurries on Monday, with little if any additional accumulation on Monday. This looks to be some much needed moisture that will help lower fire danger and expedite the green up next week.

We should see a return to warmer and mostly dry conditions for the remainder of next week.

Fri Apr 13

It appears numerical models taking us on a Spring roller coaster ride. Latest model guidance, which I trust more now that the Pacific system has moved onshore in CA, has the upper low taking a more northerly track and weakening the system into an open trough as it moves across CO while moving the system much faster. The end result will be much less snow for the foothills and Plains, but the northern and central mountains will receive substantial amounts of snow from this system. Forecast now looks like this:

Pacific upper trough moved through central CA this morning and is forecast to move into northern AZ on Saturday morning then move quickly northeast across CO into western NE by Sunday monring. Associated surface low now forms in northeast CO Saturday and into northeast NE on Sunday. This now limits the previously forecast upslope flow and keeps the flow more westerly, which severely limits snow amounts in the foothills.

Some showers possible across western CO and our foothills this afternoon and evening, but limited precip amounts. Heavier precip moves into western CO during the day on Saturday, remaining mostly west of the Divide until late Saturday afternoon. Snow level will be from 6000-7000 ft on Saturday in the higher mountains. Snow chances begin in the foothills by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with snow level around 7000-8000 ft initially, but lowering to Plains level by midnight. Snow could be heavy at times west of the Divide Saturday into Sunday morning where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect west of the Divide, and a Winter Storm Watch is in effect east of the Divide to the Front Range Crest. Snow showers and flurries likely to persist into Sunday night, although additional accumulations would be light on Sunday.

Snow totals - Now looks like only 1-4 inches for the foothills, and a dusting to an inch or two for the Urban Corridor. Far northeast Plains could see 1-3 inches of snow. Best chances for accumulating snow will be from Saturday late afternoon into Sunday morning. Central and Northern Mountains west of the Divide could see 8-14 inches of snow, with areas east of the Divide in the 4-8 inch range. Flurries and showers Sunday and Monday will mostly affect areas north of I-70.

The remainder of next week continues to look mostly dry with a few isolated afternoon and evening showers and temps near or slightly above seasonal norms. No major precipitation events on the horizon through next weekend at this time. At our present rate and unless something drastic changes, April will end with below average snowfall for most of the foothills, and likely leave us below average for the season unless May provides some bigger storms. It appears elevated fire concerns will persist througout the remainder of Spring.

>>..Snow totals - Now looks like only 1-4 inches for the foothills,..<<

Shucks and darn.... sigh!

Sat Apr 14

Upper low currently over southeast UT and models now have it tracking slightly farther south through central CO tonight and into NE on Sunday. Showers beginning to develop all across CO in unstable airmass ahead of main system. I now believe foothills could see 2-6 inches of snow from this afternoon into Sunday evening, with the vast majority falling this afternoon into Sunday morning. Convective showers could accompany system this evening which could produce 1-2 inch snowfall rates per hour. Snow level should lower to Plans level by midnight, so some accumulation in the Urban Corridsor possible on grassy surfaces. Warm roads will initially melt snow, but roads could become snow and ice packed tonight into Sunday morning.

SNow shoers and flurries likely to continue during the day on Sunday, but do not expect much if any additkional accumulation during the day. Snow should end by Sunday evening.

Major severe weather outbreak in progress across OK, KS, NE and IA with the potential for long track and very strong tornadoes into tonight. Area will move east on Sunday in advance of our upper low, so severe weather expected for portions of IA, MN, IL on Sunday.

Remainder of next week continues to look mostly dry and mild.