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 Post subject: Dry and Mild Start to 2018
Post Posted: Jan 1, 2018 9:10 am 
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Some cold temps to start the New Year this morning, but arctic air mass is quite shallow across eastern CO and only extends up to about 6500 ft MSL. From the foothills west mostly sunny skies and warmer temps as temps will be at or above average today. Arctic air will hang tough across most of eastern CO today causing temps to remain below average.

For the remainder of the first week of 2018, skies will remain mostly sunny across CO and temps will rise above average Tuesday through Saturday as mean upper level ridge axis remains over the Great Basin this week. A system will bring some precip mostly to mountain areas on Sunday with snow level near 6000-7000 ft. Temp will cool down to near average on Sunday. Precip will be confined to areas along and west of the Front Range Crest, with only a slight chance any precip will make it into the foothills.

For next week, it should start out dry and mild statewide through Wednesday as temps remain near to slightly above average, then cooler temps with some precip possible late next week, but with the mean upper ridge position remaining over the Western U.S., no significant storms on the horizon. The latest ONI for the Nino 3.4 region is -1.0, putting ENSO conditions on the border between weak and moderate La Nina conditions. Nearly all models persist La Nina conditions through at least March, then begin to warm towards ENSO Neutral conditions this Spring into Summer. This spells mostly bad news for winter snowfall across most of CO, with the possible exception of the northern mountains. In our foothills, we may not see significant snowfall until late March into April or May.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Mild Start to 2018
Post Posted: Jan 2, 2018 3:17 pm 
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Yet another dry and mild day across our state, seems to be a theme this season. Upper level ridge currently along the West Coast, and is forecast to migrate eastward into the Great Basin later this week. Thus, dry weather is expected to persist through Saturday, and temps will continue to warm each day this week through Saturday, which means by Friday and Saturday temps will be 10-15 degrees above average. Upper level flow will remain light to moderate over CO this week, so only some breezy conditions at higher elevations expected, nothing like last week.

Latest models are a bit more vigorous with next system forecast to move over CO late Saturday into Sunday. ECMWF is a bit faster with this system than GFS, which is unusual. Depending on timing, precip could move into western CO from Saturday afternoon to Saturday night with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Precip is then expected to move into eastern CO from Saturday night to Sunday morning and persist through Sunday afternoon as snow level lowers to near 4000 ft. Mountains could see 6-12 inches of new snow, while foothills may see 1-4 inches, and Urban Corridor and plains maybe a dusting to 2 inches. With such warm temps this week expect most roads below 6000 ft to remain mostly wet, while some slush and snow will be possible above 7000-8000 ft. Conditions should clear Sunday night.

For next week, models rebuild upper ridge over the Great Basin Monday through Wednesday, so dry and mild conditions expected statewide. Late next week models bring another system across CO. Again, timing differences with ECMWF bringing precip across CO Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, while GFS brings precip across Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon with snow down to plains level. Does not look like a significant system at this time, but every little bit helps at this point.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Mild Start to 2018
Post Posted: Jan 3, 2018 1:17 pm 
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Yep, another dry and mild day as temps running 10 deg above average in the foothills and Urban Corridor. Some mid and high clouds moving across the state associated with a system to our north. Rest of the work week remains dry and mild as temps rise slightly each day through Saturday. Models today have backed off on the precip east of the Front Range Crest for Sunday, so mountains should see precip from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning with 5-10 inches above 6000 ft, but areas east look to receive little if any precip now, perhaps a dusting in the foothills by Sunday morning. Temps will lower back near seasonal norms on Sunday as cooler air moves over the state.

For next week, more dry and mild weather Monday through Wednesday as temps will remain above average. Later next week, model solutions diverge, with GFS bringing some precip to CO late Wednesday into Thursday, while the ECMWF keeps all precip south of CO. Dry and mild weather expected next weekend and into the following week through Wednesday, then some precip possible late that week.

Powerful winter storm is moving up the East Coast today, currently bringing snow and freezing rain to much of the Southeast, and system will intensify today into Thursday as it moves up the Atlantic Seaboard. System will become a powerful NorEaster for the Northeast tonight into Thursday with 6-18 inches of snow combined with 30-50 mph winds, so anyone traveling to the mid Atlantic to Northeast today through Thursday can expect significant travel delays and cancellations.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Mild Start to 2018
Post Posted: Jan 5, 2018 1:53 pm 
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More warm and dry weather today. Upper level trough will will bring increased clouds to much of the state during the day on Saturday, and precip will move into western CO Saturday afternoon mostly from Vail Pass west with snow level near 8000 ft. Temps will remain above average across eastern CO Saturday. Precip will increase and move to the Front Range Crest by Saturday evening and continue overnight in the mountains as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Some precip will also be possible across far northeast CO Saturday night, but little if any precip expected in our foothills, maybe a dusting of snow at best overnight Saturday night, and a few flurries possible Sunday. Temps Sunday should be close to seasonal norms.

Next week will start out dry and mild, with temps well above average Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridge moves over the state. Models have come into decent agreement on system for next week Wednesday into Thursday. Both GFS and ECMWF bring a closed upper level low to neat the 4 Corners Wednesday morning and move the upper low across southern CO during the day on Wednesday, into southwest KS by Wednesday evening. Models bring some light precip into western CO Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with snow level near 8000 ft. Precip intensifies and spreads into eastern CO during the day on Wednesday as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft with good upslope flow across much of eastern CO. Snow tapers off Wednesday night into Thursday morning as cooler air brings snow level down to plains level. AT this time portions of eastern CO, including our foothills could see decent snow, in the 6-12 inch range. However, models have been fairly cruel this year in advertising system that have fallen apart, so will hold off too much excitement until next week. For now, will be hopeful we can finally get some snow on the ground.

Conditions should clear on Thursday but temps will remain cool as cold air remains in place late next week into Saturday. Temps warm up next Sunday as conditions remain dry statewide. Models suggest the following week will start out dry and mild, then models suggest upper level pattern shifts to a more zonal flow from the Pacific into CO allowing more frequent moisture, but will wait and see if this actually happens.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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