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Snow Forecast for Friday
https://pinecam.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=228957
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Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 10, 2019 9:15 am ]
Post subject:  Snow Forecast for Friday

So models have taken what appeared to be a weak little system and now have it develop just as it passes over CO on Friday. There are still some differences in snow amounts between various models, but decent consensus so confidence is good.

Precip will begin across western CO this evening with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Precip will move east to about our foothills by midnight as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Precip spreads east into the Urban Corridor early Friday morning as snow level lowers to near 4000 ft. Snow will then persist all day on Friday and begin to diminish Friday evening, with snow ending around midnight. Heaviest snow will be between 6 am and 6 pm Friday, and favored areas for this storm will be from the Divide into the foothills south of I-70 and along the Palmer Divide. The NAM is the wettest of the models, and the GFS is the driest with ECMWF in-between. I expect NWS will hoist at least a Winter Weather Advisory for foothill and Metro areas later today. Here are what snow amounts currently look like:

Mountains from Divide east into Foothills and Palmer Divide: 3-8 inches heaviest south of I-70
Urban Corridor: 2-6 inches with heaviest amounts on west and south side of Metro area
Eastern Plains: 1-3 inches

Initial snow likely to melt on asphalt roadways due to warm temps this week, but as temps drop and snow becomes heavier I would expect roads to become snow and ice packed before the morning commute Friday morning, so expect a slow and slick drive down the hill. Temps will drop throughout the day on Friday as snow continues, so expect slick roads for most of the day on Friday. Major roads may become slushy or wet during the day as crews treat roads, but conditions will likely worsen Friday evening as sun goes down and temps lower further. All in all a good day to stay home if possible.

Weekend weather still looking mostly sunny with temps near average.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 11, 2019 8:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Snow Forecast for Friday

A wonderful snowy day on tap today, unless you have to be out in the weather. Upper level trough is currently over southwest CO and models suggest circulation center will intensify and move into southeast CO this afternoon which will provide better upslope flow across CO through the day today. Woke up to 4 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain, and heaviest snow has yet to arrive. Models suggest snow will persist through the day today and not subside until near midnight tonight, thus snow totals may be higher than previously anticipated. Snow level currently near 5000 ft and temps will lower throughout the day today bringing snow level below 4000 ft. Roads are currently snow packed above 6000 ft, mostly wet below that. Expect roads to be a combination of snow/ice, slush and wet today then snow and ice packed this evening into tonight.

NWS has upgraded WWA to a Winter Storm Warning for areas above 6000 ft. For snow amounts, latest HRRR model suggests eastern slopes, foothills and Palmer Divide areas could see 12-15 inches of snow by tonight, but believe that will be for favored areas at higher elevations. Most foothill areas still likely to see 4-10 inches, and Metro Area in the 3-7 inch range. Overall, expect messy road conditions through Saturday morning and traction laws for most foothill areas. Models now suggest that isolated flurries will persist much of the day on Saturday with temps below average, but little if any additional accumulation. Sunday still looks dry with temps near average.

Stay safe today and enjoy the snow if you can.

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