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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 7, 2019 10:54 am 
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Highlight for today will be strong winds. Bora wind event setting up for this afternoon and evening with wind gusts to 75 mph possible in local foothill areas as well as over mountain ares along and east of the Divide. Snow will persist along and west of the Divide through this afternoon making travel very difficult with snow and blowing snow with snow level near 7000 ft. NWS has issued a High Wind Warning through 10 pm tonight for foothill and Urban Corridor areas. Winds will gradually diminish overnight into Tuesday morning, but will remain gusty at times over higher elevations. Winds may cause power outages and downed trees today into this evening. Temps will remain above average for most areas today.

For the remainder of the week, expect temps to remain above average through Thursday and expect mostly dry conditions locally. A cold front is forecats to moves across CO Friday morning which will cool temps back to near average, and provide some light precip for mountain areas during the day on Friday, but little if any precip expected in foothill areas.

Weekend looks dry statewide as temps go back above average.

For next week, models suggest a chance for some mountain precip Tuesday, and then slightly better precip chances to extend into eastern CO Thursday into Friday and then again next weekend. Temps will be near average for most of the week.

My absence over the weekend was to attend my grandson's first birthday party in CA (pictures attached)

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 8, 2019 2:30 pm 
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Upper ridge currently over the Great Basin with a dry northwest flow aloft over CO creating mostly sunny skies and temps 5-10 degrees above average. Upper ridge will move east over the Rockies Wednesday creating westerly flow aloft over CO then move to our east on Thursday with southwest flow aloft. As upper ridge moves over and to our east, skies will remain mostly sunny and temps will be 10-15 degrees above average.

A weak upper level trough will make it's way from the Pacific into CO late Thursday into Friday. A cold front will push across CO early Friday morning which will bring temps back to near average on Friday. Some precip will move into the mountains Friday morning and then into eastern CO Friday afternoon into Friday night with snow level near 4000 ft. Models suggest snow amounts will be mostly light, and generally be in the trace to 2 inches range for most areas. It may be just enough to slick roads up Friday afternoon and evening in foothill areas. Snow should diminish Friday night with mostly clear skies by Saturday morning.

For the weekend, a Omega Blocking pattern develops over the Great Basin with the upper High centered over Idaho, and then a upper trough on each side of the High to the west and east. This will keep CO under a dry northeast flow aloft, so no precip expected this weekend and temps will be near seasonal norms.

For next week, blocking pattern breaks down and upper ridge moves east which will allow another Pacific upper level trough to move into CO late Tuesday into Wednesday. Monday should be dry statewide with temps above average. Precip will move into western CO Tuesday afternoon with snow level near 6000 ft and will move east to about the Urban Corridor Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then retreat back over the mountains on Wednesday as snow level lowers to 4000 ft on Wednesday. For amounts, mountains may pick up 2-5 inches, while foothill areas likely to less than an inch. Temps will be near average Tuesday and a bit below average Wednesday.

Another Pacific system will move into Co late Thursday into Friday with more mountain snow. Precip will move into western CO early Thursday and spread east to about the Front Range Crest during the day on Thursday with snow level near 7000 ft. Snow level lowers to 4000 ft by Friday morning, but vast majority of precip remains west of the Front Range Crest, so less than an inch for foothill areas, but several inches possible in the mountains.

Next weekend looks dry statewide, and dry conditions likely to persist into much of the following week. At this point, unless something dramatically shifts, it appears we are in for a very dry January east of the Divide which will put us further behind in snowfall. However, I am still betting on February through April to have above average snowfall, so we wilol hopefully recover. Time will tell.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 8, 2019 4:55 pm 
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Thought many may find this graphic interesting. It is the latest GFS model precip accumulation over the next 384 hours (16 days). Sad to see northeast CO with under 0.10 inches over the next 16 days. Interesting to note the 10-15 inches of precip over portions of the northern Sierras of California, at least somewhere is getting the precip they need. Hopefully ours will come later.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 9, 2019 2:59 pm 
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Dry and warm day across the state as temps range from 5 to 15 degrees above average today as upper level ridge axis is over CO. Similar weather on tap for Thursday as upper ridge moves east, but leaves southwest flow aloft over Co which will create katabatic warming for areas east of the Divide, so temps should be similar to today on Thursday.

Latest models are a little more generous for snowfall from our next system on Friday. Cold front will push across CO Thursday night and will usher in snow behind the front. Snow will develop after midnight over mountain areas and we should see first snowfall between 3-6 am Friday in local foothill areas. Snow looks to persist much of the day on Friday into Friday night, with snow diminishing after midnight. Heaviest snow looks to be from 6 am through 3 pm Friday and snow will be focused on areas between the Divide and Urban Corridor. For amounts, latest models suggest 2-6 inches will be possible from the Divide to the foothills and Palmer Divide, with 2-4 inches possible across the Urban Corridor, and less than 2 inches farther east. Snow level will begin near 6000 ft early Friday morning lowering to 4000 ft by mid morning Friday. With warm temps this week, initial snowfall may melt on major roadways, but should re-freeze as heavier snow falls Friday morning into afternoon, so expect slick roads for most of the day on Friday into Friday night. Temps will fall most of the day on Friday with temps mostly in the 20's during the day in our foothills.

The weekend should remain dry statewide after some exiting flurries early Saturday morning. Temps will be near average each day under mostly sunny skies.

For next week, Monday looks dry with temps a bit above average. Next Pacific system will bring some light precip to areas west of the Front Range Crest during the day on Tuesday with snow level near 6000 ft. Next system will be right on the heels with precip moving into western CO during the day on Wednesday with snow level near 7000 ft. Precip will persist along and west of the Front Range Crest on Thursday as snow level remains near 7000 ft, but foothills should remain mostly dry. Friday will see isolated areas of precip west of the Front Range Crest with snow level near 6000 ft. Foothills could see a dusting, but nothing of significance at this time.

For next weekend, Saturday looks dry with temps near average, then snow may be possible for most of the state on Sunday.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 13, 2019 5:46 pm 
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Mostly sunny day across the state today outside of a few showers near the NM border with temps close to average for most areas.

For the week ahead, we should start out dry statewide Monday through Tuesday as temps rise a bit above average. A weak upper level trough will pass over CO on Wednesday and bring some light snow to areas west of the Front Range Crest with snow level 5000-6000 ft. Looks like 2-4 inches for mountain areas with some flurries lingering into Thursday morning. For foothill areas, should be dry Wednesday with temps slightly above average.

Next Pacific system which will be stronger will bring precip to western CO by Thursday afternoon with snow level near 8000 ft. Foothills will remain dry on Thursday with above average temps. Snow will push east to the foothills by Friday morning with snow level near 6000 ft. Snow will spread east into eastern CO during the day on Friday as snow level lowers to below 4000 ft. Models suggest some light accumulation will be possible in our foothills with current estimates from 2-5 inches.

For the weekend, snow will diminish Friday night with just some lingering flurries over mountain areas on Saturday as temps remain below average. Sunday looks dry statewide with temps near to slightly above average.

For next week, models suggest a stronger system could bring snow to much of CO beginning Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Wednesday looks dry but more snow could be possible Thursday. Friday into next weekend looks dry statewide at this time.

With our 18 inches of snow on Friday, we are nearly at our average for the month on Conifer Mountain.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 14, 2019 3:21 pm 
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Fair weather across the state today as Omega upper level block is centered over the northern Rockies leaving CO under a ridge axis today. Temps will be near average as snow cover will keep temps lower than if there were no snow cover. Tuesday will also be mostly dry statewide as temps remain near to slightly above average. Some showers will move into western CO west of the Divide by late in the day with snow level near 7000 ft. Precip will spread east overnight into Wednesday morning as a weak upper level trough moves over CO from the Pacific. Precip will remain along and west of the Front Range Crest with snow level near 6000 ft on Wednesday. Mountain areas should see 2-6 inches of snow from this system, with highest amounts on the west side of the Divide. Temps should ne near average on Wednesday.

Thursday will start out dry statewide, but next Pacific system will bring precip to araes west of the Divide by late in the day on Thursday with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Precip will move east to the Front Range Crest overnight into Friday morning. Precip will move farther east during the day on Friday into eastern CO by Friday afternoon and evening as snow level lowers to near 4000 ft. Snow will begin to diminish by midnight Friday night. Mountain areas will see another 3-7 inches of snow, while foothill areas could see 2-5 inches of snow from this system, and 1-3 inches along the Urban Corridor. Temps will be below average on Friday, and area roads could become slick for the evening commute.

Saturday will be a cool day with isolated flurries diminishing through the day, and little if any additional accumulation expected. Sunday will be dry statewide as temps return to average.

For next week, Monday looks dry with temps near average, then on Tuesday a weak system will bring a chance for some light snow to most of CO. Later in the week models create a very high amplitude upper ridge in the Eastern Pacific which will bring some systems and much colder temps to CO beginning on Thursday. Several inches of snow will be possible over most of CO Thursday into Friday along with arctic temps. Cold air will remain in place next weekend and then more snow looks possible the following week as arctic air remains in place. This could be our first major arctic outbreak of the season.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 15, 2019 2:42 pm 
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Mostly sunny day across the state again today with temps running about 5 degrees above average most areas. Clouds and some light precip will move into western CO this afternoon with precip staying mostly west of Vail Pass with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Precip will intensify and spread east to the Front Range Crest overnight as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Precip will persist most of the day on Wednesday west of the Front Range Crest and begin to diminish Wednesday evening as snow level remains near 6000 ft. East of the Front Range Crest, dry conditions will remain and temps will be 1-5 degrees above average on Wednesday. For snow amounts, most mountain valleys will see 2-6 inches, while higher west facing ranges could see 6-14 inches. Could be tough travel conditions through mountain areas on Wednesday.

Next Pacific system will begin to bring renewed precip to western CO Thursday afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Dry conditions will persists east of the Divide on Thursday as temps remain above average. Precip will move east Thursday night into Friday morning to near the Front Range Crest as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. On Friday, there are some slight differences in how models track the upper level trough across CO. Most models bring an open trough across CO then intensify the system over southeast CO Friday evening. This track would keep a mostly northwest flow across foothill areas on Friday, which would limit snowfall. Latest models only bring from a trace to 2 inches of snow to foothill areas Friday afternoon into evening. Mountain areas could see an additional 6-12 inches of snow. Precip should diminish Friday night with some gusty northerly winds and cooler temps.

Saturday looks mostly dry with a few lingering mountain flurries in the morning. Temps will remain on the cool side of average and gusty northwest winds will keep a blustery feel in the air. Sunday will also be dry statewide as temps rise a bit above average most areas and winds diminish.

For next week, a series of systems will impact CO during the week as a high amplitude upper level ridge builds off the West Coast in the eastern Pacific. This will bring a series of systems from western Canada down across CO with much cooler temps all week. Typically these systems do not bring much snow as the air is much colder and they are fast moving. First system will bring snow to CO from late Monday into Tuesday afternoon. Next system will bring more snow to CO late Wednesday into Thursday. Models then develop an interesting pattern next weekend into the following week, as arctic air combines with moisture from the southwest. If this pattern were to come to fruition, it would produce a lot of snow over CO, but way too early to tell if this will actually happen.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 16, 2019 2:59 pm 
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Not many changes from yesterday, Snow occurring in the high country mostly west of the Divide today and will subside this evening. Some gusty westerly winds possible at higher elevations tonight as mild temps persist east of the Divide. Next Pacific system that is soaking CA today with 2-6 inches of rain will move into CO Thursday night into Friday morning with precip moving to the Front Range Crest by Friday morning. Latest models in agreement that foothill areas will see from a trace to 2 inches of snow above 6000 ft with best chances for accumulating snow between Noon and 8 pm Friday. Roads could become slick for the return commute Friday evening. Mountain areas will see 6-18 inches of snow from today through Saturday morning, so good ski conditions this weekend.

Weekend weather still looking dry with temps near to slightly above average.

Next week will feature a series of fast moving systems that move down from the northwest which will mean temps below average all week. First system will bring snow to most of CO Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning with several inches possible in mountain and foothill areas. Next system brings a chance of snow late Wednesday into Thursday afternoon with mostly light amounts.

For next weekend and the following week, models are now uncertain whether arctic air will move in or whether Pacific air will prevail.

For those wondering after our 18 inch snowfall last Friday, I heard many people saying we haven't seen that in years. Well, the last time we saw at least 18 inches of snow was on April 3-4, 2017 when we received 19 inches on Conifer Mountain. Before that it was April 15-17, 2016 when we received 46 inches of snow, so really not that long ago.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 17, 2019 3:18 pm 
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Mostly sunny, breezy and warm day across the state as temps are running 5-10 degrees above average today. Westerly winds will be gusty at times with speeds in the 15-35 mph range and gusts to 50 mph. Potent Pacific system will bring precip to areas west of the Divide beginning this afternoon with precip intensifying and spreading east to the Front Range Crest overnight, Snow level will begin at 7000-8000 ft this afternoon lowering to near 6000 ft Friday morning. Mountain areas will see heavy snow overnight combined with strong westerly winds creating very difficult travel conditions. NWS has hoisted Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for most areas west of the Front Range Crest from this evening through Friday evening. Latest models keep snow going most of the day on Friday west of the Front Range Crest, with some precip moving into eastern CO Friday afternoon. Flow will remain northwesterly, so foothill areas will not see much snow from this system, likely a dusting to up to 2 inches between Noon and 6 pm. Mountain areas will see 6-18 inches. Palmer Divide may see up to 3 inches as it does better in northwest flow. Urban and plains not likely to see any accumulations. Westerly winds will remain strong overnight and into Friday for our foothills, turning northerly late Friday into Saturday morning. Temps will be below average on Friday.

For the weekend, mostly dry conditions expected outside of some mountain flurries on Saturday. Northwesterly winds will remain strong Friday night into Saturday morning with gusts to 60 mph possible over mountain and foothill areas. Winds will slowly diminish Saturday afternoon. Temps Saturday will be near to slightly above average most areas. Sunday should be mostly sunny and temps 5-10 degrees above average.

For next week, next system to move into CO will be on Monday. Snow will move into areas west of the Divide during the day and then move into eastern CO Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Models suggest foothill areas could see 2-5 inches from this system on Monday, which could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. Mountain areas could see another 4-10 inches.

Tuesday looks dry with temps below average. Next system will bring more snow to western CO during the day on Wednesday and then bring some light snow into eastern CO Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. Looks like less than 2 inches for foothill areas, while mountain areas could see another 2-6 inches.

Friday looks dry with temps near average. Saturday into Sunday could have some light snow mostly over mountain areas. Latest models do not bring arctic air into CO after this and keeps the upper ridge over the Great Basin, so dry and mild conditions for CO the following week versus cold arctic air.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 18, 2019 9:05 am 
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Brief update on weather for today....

Tough travel conditions over mountain areas already this morning, with up to a foot of snow being reported overnight in some areas. Snow has moved east to teh Front Range Crest this morning. Latest hires models forecasting a band of snow to move through foothill areas between Noon and 6 pm, and there is enough instability in the atmosphere to produce brief heavy snow showers today, so snow amounts could be in the 1-3 inch range for foothill areas, and roads could become slick in these brief heavy showers. Snow should diminish after 6 pm but gusty northwest winds may persist overnight into Saturday morning that may cause blowing and drifting of snow.

For anyone heading to the High Country this weekend, be aware avalanche danger will be high in remote areas, so use caution.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 20, 2019 5:55 pm 
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After a sunny and warm day today, get ready for some more winter weather on Monday. Next Pacific system will move into western CO around Noon Monday with snow level near 6000 ft. Snow will move east during the afternoon to about the Front Range Crest by 4 pm, then move into the foothills and Urban Corridor between 5 pm and 8 pm. Snow level will drop to 4000 ft overnight as snow persists across most of CO through Tuesday morning. Snow will begin to diminish after 6 am Tuesday, with clearing after Noon. For snow amounts, mountains will see 3-7 inches, foothills 2-5 inches, and Urban Corridor 1-3 inches with higher amounts along western and southern edges of the Metro Area. With warm conditions today and Monday, believe roads will remain mostly wet through about 7-8 pm before becoming snow and ice packed overnight into Tuesday morning.

For the remainder of the week, temps will remain below average Tuesday through Friday. Tuesday looks to remain dry, then next system will bring snow to the mountains Wednesday afternoon, with some light snow moving east into the foothills and Urban Corridor Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Mountains could see 1-4 inches, while foothills should see less than an inch for most areas.

Friday through Sunday looks mostly dry with just a slight chance for some light mountain flurries Saturday. Temps should be near average.

For next week, models keep upper ridge off the West Coast with systems moving from the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada and then into the Rockies. First system will move into CO Monday into Tuesday. ECMWF is much stronger with this system than the GFS, so will see how this transpires. Next system arrive next Thursday, then another system next weekend.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late January
Post Posted: Jan 21, 2019 9:36 am 
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Quick update to forecast for today. There is a fair amount of uncertainty on snow amounts for much of eastern CO due to slight differences on where the upper trough and surface low form over CO later today into tonight. For much of the day it will be dry and windy with gusty southwest winds of 20-45 mph in the foothills, which will cause temps to side above average.

Precip will move into western CO this afternoon, and some showers will be possible in the foothills between 3-5 pm, but nothing to create any road issues. The main event will not occur until tonight between 9 pm and midnight as a cold front and northerly flow develop. Snow level near 6000-7000 ft through this evening, then lowering to 4000 ft overnight into Tuesday morning. Snow will persist overnight across much of eastern CO and will dissipate Tuesday morning between 6 am and 10 am. For amounts, here is my best guess:

Mountains: 4-9 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-4 inches
Northeast Plains (north of I-70): 3-6 inches
Southeast Plains (south of I-70): less than 1 inch

Blizzard conditions will be possible over the northeast plains tonight, which may create travel issues along I-76 and I-70 heading east. I expect local roads to remain fine for the evening commute this evening, then become snow and ice packed overnight into Tuesday morning, so a slick commute Tuesday morning. Temps will remain below average Tuesday with breezy northerly winds.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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