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 Post subject: Forecast to Start 2019
Post Posted: Jan 2, 2019 1:32 pm 
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Location: Conifer Mountain
Mostly sunny day across the state as the upper level low to our south is creating northerly flow aloft over CO. Aforementioned upper low will create a major winter storm which will impact northern TX and OK tonight into Thursday with up to 6 inches of snow, creating travel issues for the region. For Colorado, temps will be near average today. Fair conditions are expected statewide through Saturday as upper level ridge builds over the state. Temps will rise above average Thursday through Saturday.

Next chance for precip in the state will be Sunday into Monday. Upper level trough from the Pacific will move across CO and bring precip to western CO Sunday morning with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will spread east to about the Front Range Crest Sunday afternoon as snow level remains near 6000 ft. GFS brings some light precip eastward Sunday night into Monday morning while the ECMWF keeps all precip west of the Front Range Crest. Any precip that does make it farther east would be very light, so not expecting anything beyond a dusting for foothill areas at this time. Mountains could pick up 2-6 inches from this system.

For next week, upper level ridge builds back over CO early next week, so expect dry conditions statewide and temps to be above average Tuesday through Thursday. Models bring another Pacific upper level trough over the state late Thursday into Friday. This will bring a chance for precip for western CO Thursday afternoon with snow level near 9000 ft. Models bring precip into eastern CO Thursday night into Friday evening as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft on Friday. Models bring 1-3 inches of snow to foothill areas with this system, and 3-8 inches to mountain areas.

Next weekend looks dry with temps near average. The following week also looks to remain mostly dry for CO with temps on the warm side of average.

For snowfall, we ended December with 9.0 inches of snow, which is well below our average of 20 inches on Conifer Mountain. Our season total now stands at 36.0 inches, which is 70% of average. I will not get too concerned about a lack of snowfall at this point, as during most El Nino seasons, our majority of snow falls between February and April, so still optimistic for above average snowfall this season. For reference, the 2002-2003 season which was an El Nino year, we only had 35 inches of snow through January, but March had 103 inches and we ended the season with 198 inches.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Forecast to Start 2019
Post Posted: Jan 3, 2019 2:22 pm 
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Location: Conifer Mountain
Nary a cloud in the sky across CO today as temps have risen 5-10 degrees above average. Some breezy westerly winds will exist at higher elevations of the mountains and foothills today. It is odd in visible satellite imagery to see more snow on the ground across eastern NM than eastern CO, but such is the case.

Temps on Friday will continue to rise and be 10-15 degrees above average for most areas. Mountain and foothill areas will also see stronger westerly winds of 20-45 mph under mostly sunny skies. On Saturday, temps will remain 5-10 degrees above average, and most areas will see an increase in mid and high clouds during the afternoon hours.

Upper level trough will approach CO and bring a chance for precip to areas along and west of the Divide Saturday night into Sunday morning, with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Precip will spread east to near the Front Range Crest during the day on Sunday as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. There will be a chance for some light precip to spread east to about the Urban Corridor late Sunday into Monday morning, but any precip would be light. Mountain areas may see 2-5 inches of snow, but only a dusting at best expected for foothill areas. Temps will be close to seasonal norms on Sunday.

For next week, Monday looks breezy as temps remain close to average. Tuesday through Wednesday will remain dry as temps rise 10-15 degrees above average.

Next system will bring a chance for precip Thursday into Friday, but majority of precip looks to remain along and west of the Divide. Only a slight chance for any precip east of the Divide and amounts would be light.

Next weekend will see temps near average, with some mountain snow, but mostly dry east of the Divide.

In general, models suggest very little snow for areas east of the Divide for the first half of January. This is not unusual for CO, as January tends to be relatively dry.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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