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 Post subject: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 20, 2018 2:34 pm 
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Mostly sunny day across the state today with temps 5-10 degrees above average. Winds mostly on the light side today.

Beginning Friday, a much more active weather pattern appears to be on tap for most of CO through the end of December. A series of weak system will pass over CO Friday into Monday next week, then a much stronger system is forecast to impact CO next Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are coming into much better agreement, but as with any larger system, it is the details of track and timing that matter for Colorado.

Westerly winds will increase after midnight tonight over higher terrain of the mountains and foothills and continue to increase through the day on Friday. Speeds will generally be in the 25-40 mph range with some gusts to 60 mph. Snow will develop in the mountains Friday afternoon mostly west of the Divide above 8000-9000 ft, with maybe 1-2 inches possible. Snow should mostly diminish by evening as winds begin to subside as well overnight. Temps will be 10-20 degrees above average on Friday.

Next system will follow quickly on the heels and bring a new round of snow to mountain areas Friday night into Saturday morning with snow level down to 5000-6000 ft. Snow will push east during the day on Saturday, especially across northeast CO north of I-70. For foothill areas, models suggest less than 1 inch will be possible on Saturday, as mountain areas pick up 2-5 inches of snow with possible tough driving conditions. Snow will diminish Saturday afternoon and generally end by evening. Temps will be near average on Saturday and Sunday. Yet another fast moving system will bring new snow chances to western CO Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Snow is expected to remain mostly along and west of the Divide, so little if any snow expected to make it into foothill areas. Mountains may see another 1-2 inches. Snow should gradually diminish Monday afternoon with mostly lingering mountain flurries as temps remain near average.

For xmas day, models dig a closed upper level low somewhere near the 4 Corners region. GFS is a little faster but ECMWF is now following the same track. The upper low then moves across southern CO on Wednesday and into the Central Plains on Thursday. The current track is favorable for a good snow event across nearly all of CO from late Tuesday into Thursday morning. Snow will move into western CO along and west of the Divide during the day on Tuesday with snow level 5000-6000 ft. Snow will gradually move east into eastern CO Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, with a full fledged upslope snow event all day on Wednesday and then snow diminishing Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Latest models suggest 6-12 inches will be possible across much of eastern CO, but this is still a ways out, and things could change, but would be a fun way to end xmas for those not having to travel.

Thursday would be a cool and unsettled day with some lingering snow showers and temps below average.Models suggest another upper trough moving to our south on Friday, which would generate new snow mostly south of US 50, but some snow could make it into foothill areas during the day as temps remain below average.

Next weekend looks mostly dry as temps return to near average. More snow looks to be possible the first week of January as system continue to move over CO.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 21, 2018 3:23 pm 
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A Happy Winter Solstice to everyone, and combining with a full moon you think the weather could do a little better than just strong winds, but we get what we get.

Windy day for the mountains and foothills, with speeds mostly in the 25-50 mph range with higher gusts. Some snow has developed west of the Divide with snow level near 9000 ft as temps run 10-20 degrees above average today. Snow and winds will diminish this evening. Next system will push into western CO after midnight tonight with a cold front that will bring cooler temps and more snow on Saturday. Snow will develop overnight west of the Divide and then push east during the day on Saturday with snow level near 4000 ft. As winds remain westerly, foothills likely to see less than 1/2 inch of accumulation, while mountain areas will see 2-6 inches and up to 10 inches across the northern mountains, while northeast plains could see 1-3 inches. Travel through the mountains Saturday will include winter driving conditions, and across the northeast plains. Snow should diminish statewide Saturday evening.

Sunday should start out mostly dry, then snow moves into areas west of the Divide Sunday afternoon with snow level near 4000 ft with temps near average. Snow will increase overnight into Monday morning and move east to about the Front Range Crest. Snow will gradually diminish Monday evening into Monday night with just some lingering flurries in the mountains. Temps will be near average Monday.

Attention then turns to potentially bigger snow event Tuesday into Thursday. Models continue to work on a solution, and overall GFS and ECMWF have a very similar track today that brings upper trough over NV on Tuesday, over the 4 Corners on Wednesday and into western KS by Thursday. This is a relatively favorable track for snow across eastern CO, but the eventual track and intensity will dictate actual snow amounts. The GFS brings snow into eastern CO by Tuesday afternoon, while ECMWF holds off snow until Wednesday morning across eastern CO. Both models have significant snow across all of eastern CO during the day on Wednesday into Thursday morning. If current track holds true most areas east of the Divide would see 6-12 inches of snow, but still too far out to be a certainty. Hopefully will have more confidence in forecast by Sunday or Monday. Thursday looks to be cold with lingering snow in areas.

Another upper trough moves to our south Friday and would bring good snow chances to areas south of US 50, with some snow possible north to I-70 during the day as temps remain cool. Saturday looks to be cool with just a few flurries in areas.

Sunday looks mostly dry statewide with temps near average. Models then suggest another potentially strong system could move down over CO Monday into Tuesday next week to start the new year. Way too far out for any semblance of truth, but would be a fun way to ring in the New Year.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 23, 2018 3:54 pm 
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Pretty nice day across the state today with temps near seasonal norms. Next in our series of Pacific storms will bring renewed precip into western CO after midnight tonight with snow level 4000-5000 ft. Precip will move east to about the Front Range Crest by Monday morning. Precip will begin to diminish after Noon with just some lingering mountain flurries through Monday evening. Mountain areas could see 2-5 inches of snow overnight into Monday evening, so expect winter driving conditions through the mountains tonight and Monday. Temps Monday will remain near average for most areas.

Xmas day looks to be dry east of the Divide with temps near average, so no white xmas for areas east of the Divide. Some light snow will move into areas west of the Divide during the day on Tuesday with snow level 6000-7000 ft.

For the next potentially bigger system, latest model runs have taken the upper low farther south over AZ and NM, which would limit snowfall for most of eastern CO. The track still has a lot of uncertainty to it, but the latest trend does not bode well for a significant snow event for our area. The latest forecast would keep all precip west of the Divide through Wednesday morning, and then bring snow into eastern CO Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday morning. Heaviest snow for local foothill areas would be from 6 pm Wednesday through 6 am Thursday given the latest track. For snow amounts, far eastern plains could still see 5-10 inches of snow, while foothill areas and Urban Corridor would see 2-6 inches, and mountain areas would pick up an additional 2-6 inches. Snow would gradually diminish over eastern CO Thursday afternoon, while latest models bring a new piece of energy into the 4 Corners region Thursday night which would increase snow across much of western CO Thursday night into Friday evening. Heaviest snow would be over the southwest and central mountains, but foothills areas could see an additional 1-3 inches of snow into Friday evening, while mountain areas could see 3-8 inches. Temps Thursday and Friday would be below average given this scenario. Stay tuned for updates as this complex system may evolve into something different from what models suggest today.

Next weekend looks mostly dry with temps near average.

For next week and the start to 2019, GFS and ECMWf have different solutions. GFS digs a closed upper low over northern Baja which would keep CO dry and mild to start 2019, while the ECMWF brings a upper trough into the Great Basin Monday into Tuesday which would bring more snow to western CO Monday that would move into eastern CO Monday night into Tuesday. Time will tell on this one.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 24, 2018 4:43 pm 
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Snow is beginning to diminish in the mountains west of the Front Range Crest this afternoon after 2-5 inches fell. Dry across most of eastern CO today with temps near average.

For the looming system, models have become more in agreement today and limit snowfall for most of CO. The upper trough looks to remain an elongated trough until Thursday when it develops across western KS. This will mean limited snowfall for most of CO, with the exception possibly across the far eastern plains where 6-12 inches if snow is possible late Wednesday into Thursday. For the remainder of CO, mountains will see snow beginning Tuesday morning and will continue into Wednesday night with 3-7 inches possible, possibly up to a foot over the southwest mountains. For our foothills, it looks like from 1/2 to 3 inches will; be possible, with best chances from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Urban Corridor likely to see less than 1 inch.

From Thursday through Saturday, models suggest a upper trough will remain over CO which will keep temps cool and keep a chance for snow showers and light snow for much of the state for this period, although any additional accumulation would be light, generally less than 2 additional inches for most areas.

Sunday looks mostly dry statewide but breezy with temps near average.

For next week, models continue to not agree, as ECMWF brings more snow and cold temps Monday into Tuesday, while GFS keeps CO dry and mild.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 25, 2018 9:08 am 
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Merry Christmas all.

Brief update on the weather ahead. Latest models are now in good agreement on incoming system, and the system does not wind up until out in KS, so snowfall amounts will be light across most of CO except across the far eastern plains where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect from tonight through Thursday morning for 5-10 inches of snow and northerly winds of 20-45 mph along with possible freezing drizzle tonight. Tough travel conditions for anyone heading east from tonight into Thursday. The southwest mountains may see 8-16 inches of snow from today through Thursday as well, so good snow there. Elsewhere, central and northern mountains looking at 2-6 inches, while foothill areas may see 1/2 to 2 inches with best chances for snow between 6 pm Wednesday and Noon Thursday. Temps will be below average from today through the weekend.

For Thursday into Saturday, expect cold temps and a chance for snow showers and light snow, but additional accumulations expected to be light with 1/2 to 2 inches more for foothill areas. Southwest mountains may see another 5-10 inches, but less then 4 inches for other mountain areas.

Next week still undecided, as ECMWF brings more snow to all of CO Monday through Wednesday, while GFS keeps CO dry and mild.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 26, 2018 9:22 am 
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Cool but nice start to the day for most of CO. Our upper level system is currently near the AZ/NM border close to the Mexico border, so way too far south for much impact to CO except for the southeast plains. Snow will increase along and west of the Divide today especially over the southwest mountains where 6-12 inches are possible. Only a few inches possible for farther north mountain areas. For local foothill areas, latest models suggest less than an inch of snow possible from this evening into Thursday morning. Southeast plains of CO could see 6-12 inches of snow, while areas north of I-70 may see little snow, depending on how far north upper low tracks into the Great Plains. Heavy snow and rainfall expected across much of the southern and central Great Plains into Thursday which will impact travel.

On Thursday, another upper trough moves over UT which will produce some light snow across areas of CO mostly west of I-25 through Friday night. Mountain areas may see a few additional inches, while foothill areas may see 1/2 to 2 inches during this period as temps remain below average.

The weekend looks mostly dry statewide with cool temps on Saturday, then breezy and temps warming above average Sunday.

For next week, models still not in agreement, but prefer the ECMWF solution that brings new snow to most of CO from early Monday into Tuesday morning with several inches possible in the mountains, and a few inches possible over foothill and Urban Corridor areas.

Models then keep CO dry and mild Wednesday into next weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 27, 2018 10:10 am 
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Major winter storm (no, I refuse to use names for winter storms)impacting a large area of the country today. Full on blizzard underway across the northern and central Great Plains, with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the lower and mid Mississippi Valley. For Colorado, some light snow lingering in the foothills and mountains this morning should be clearing by afternoon. Gusty northerly winds impacting the far eastern plains this morning, but should diminish through the day as big winter storm moves farther east.

Another upper level trough will become a closed upper low over southern UT later today and then move slowly east to near the 4 Corners region on Friday. Later on Friday the system shears apart with a piece of energy moving across CO while another piece digs south into AZ. This scenario will increase snow chances across much of CO mostly west of I-25 from tonight into Friday night. Best snow chances will be south of US 50 and across the southwest mountains, but central mountains and foothills will likely see from 1/2 to 2 inches of snow through Saturday morning. Southwest and Southern mountains may see 3-7 inches. Temps will remain below average today and Friday statewide.

Saturday will see conditions dry out statewide as northerly flow aloft moves over the state, so little if any precip expected as temps remain on the cool side of average, but some gusty northwest winds will be possible in the mountains and foothills. Sunday will see breezy conditions continue as temps warm to near average.

Next upper level trough will move from the northwest into CO from late Sunday into Monday. Snow will move into western CO during the day on Sunday, and spread east into the foothills and eastern plains Sunday night. Models suggest snow will persist all day on Monday and will diminish after midnight. Currently looks like 2-5 inches of snow possible for foothill areas. New Years Day should be mostly dry but temps will be below average.

Remainder of next week looks dry as temps warm up to above average by late next week. Next chance for precip looks to be next weekend, but does not look significant at this point.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 29, 2018 9:39 am 
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Mostly sunny day today, and after a cool start, temps should warm to near average today. There may be some gusty westerly winds at times from the Divide east into our foothills, but no precip expected statewide today.

Sunday should also start out nice and temps should warm above average for most areas. Some gusty westerly winds in the morning and afternoon hours at higher elevations. The next system will begin to increase clouds across western CO Sunday afternoon and some snow will be possible west of the Divide by Sunday evening. Models in pretty good agreement on evolution of system, with upper trough moving down from the northern Rockies on Sunday and into UT and western CO on Monday. System shears on Tuesday with majority of energy going south into AZ. At the surface, snow will spread east Sunday night into Monday morning, so foothill areas should see snow begin between 3 am and 6 am Monday, and then snow will persist over the mountains to the eastern plains during the day on Monday. Snow will begin to diminish Monday evening but some flurries may persist through about midnight Monday night, so if you are heading out for New Years Eve, expect slick roads and winter driving conditions. Temps will be cold on Monday with high temps in the 20's in the foothills, then temps drop below zero by Tuesday morning, so a very chilly start to 2019. For snow amounts, models suggest mostly 2-6 inches will be possible in the mountains and foothills, with 1-3 inches possible over the Urban Corridor and generally less than 1 inch for the eastern plains. Expect winter driving conditions for most areas of CO on Monday into Monday night.

For the start of 2019, Tuesday will be cold with temps well below average but dry conditions expected statewide. For the remainder of the week, dry conditions are expected statewide through Saturday. Temps will be near average Wednesday, and then above average Thursday through Saturday. Next chance for precip looks to be late Sunday into Monday.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 30, 2018 4:58 pm 
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Pretty nice day across the state today with temps 5-10 degrees above average for most areas.

For our incoming system, recent models have trended towards keeping the upper level trough farther west in UT on Monday, and then creating a closed upper low over northern AZ on Tuesday and moving that across southern NM on Wednesday. This track will limit snowfall east of the Divide for CO. Snow will move into western CO tonight and remain west of the Divide until Monday morning. Snow now looks to begin in the foothills after 6 am and then will persist much of the day on Monday through about 6 pm. Snowfall will mostly be along and west of I-25 with very limited snowfall east of I-25 on Monday. Snow will begin to diminish after 6 pm Monday and mostly end by midnight east of the Divide. Snow will persist across southwest and south central CO through Tuesday afternoon. For snow amounts, Here is what is currently looks like:

Southwest and South Central Mountains: 6-12 inches
Central and Northern Mountains: 2-6 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor: 1/2 - 2 inches
Eastern plains: 0 - trace

Temps will be below average Monday and winter driving conditions will exist from the Urban Corridor west. Temps will plummet Monday night into Tuesday morning with temps in the -5 to -15 range by Tuesday morning, so a very cold start to 2019. High temps Tuesday will mostly be in single digits for foothill areas under mostly sunny skies.

For the remainder of the week, dry conditions are expected statewide Wednesday through Saturday. Temps will remain cool on Wednesday, then rise above average Thursday through Saturday. GFS brings a new round of precip to CO Sunday into Monday, while ECMWF brings some precip to western CO Monday.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Week Forecast
Post Posted: Dec 31, 2018 9:42 am 
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Snow has begun and latest hi-res models suggest snow will persist much of the day today and into this evening, before diminishing after midnight tonight. Snow will remain mostly light with some periods of heavier snow during the day. Heaviest snow will be over the southwest and south central portions of the state that are closer to upper level low over southern UT today. Temps will remain cold today and well below seasonal norms. High temps today will be in the 5-15 range then lower to below zero tonight, in the 0 to -10 range for most areas, so any revelry outdoors this evening will require extreme cold weather gear. For snow amounts, latest models continue to suggest amounts in the 2-6 inch range for local foothill areas, and 1-3 inches for Urban Corridor areas. Southwest and South Central mountains may see 6-12 inches with up to 18 inches in favored areas, while central and northern mountains will see 3-7 inches. Expect winter driving conditions across most areas of the state today west of I-25 into tonight.

Rest of the week looks to remain dry as temps warm to above average later in the week through Saturday. Next chance for precip will be Sunday into Monday, but models suggest precip will remain mostly west of the Front Range Crest.

Happy New Year to everyone, and I hope 2019 will be a good year for everyone.Stay warm and safe celebrating the New Year.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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