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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Late December
Post Posted: Dec 5, 2018 2:33 pm 
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Partly to mostly cloudy day across the state today as clouds stream in ahead of upper trough off the CA coast. Temps begin to moderate today and inch closer to seasonal normal values. Some light snow will be possible in the mountains today, but amounts would generally remain less than 1 inch for most areas with snow level near 6000 ft. A cold front will push down from the north tonight into CO and create cooler temps for Thursday. There may be enough of an upslope component in the flow to create low clouds and a slight chance for some light snow across eastern Co from the plains into the foothills overnight. Any amounts would be light and only a dusting at best. Upper level trough will move into the Desert Southwest late Thursday and snow will move into western CO Thursday afternoon west of the Divide with snow level near 6000 ft. Snow moves east to the Front Range Crest Thursday night into Friday morning, with a slight chance for some light snow in western foothill areas, but again only a dusting at best expected. Snow showers will persists much of the day on Friday, mostly west of the Front Range Crest, but a few showers could develop in the foothills, but no accumulation expected. Temps on Friday will remain on the cool side of average. Mountains may receive 2-6 inches of snow from Thursday into Friday night, with highest amounts south of I-70 and over the southwest mountains.

For the weekend, mostly dry conditions expected with temps near average.

For next week, dry conditions persist Monday into Tuesday as temps rise above average. By Wednesday, precip chances increase as upper trough moves across the state during the day. Precip will stay mostly west of the Front Range Crest, but some light snow may move to about the I-25 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening with snow level near 5500 ft. Thursday and Friday look to remain dry statewide with temps near average.

For next weekend, models keep Saturday dry, and then bring a upper trough to our south that may bring some light precip mostly south of US 50 on Sunday with snow level near 8000 ft.

For anyone keep track, November snowfall on Conifer Mountain was 13.5 inches which is close to our average for November. This bring seasonal snowfall through the end of November to 27 inches, which right at our average. So far 3.5 inches in December, with our monthly average near 20 inches, so we shall see where we end up. It only takes one big storm this time of year to provide a month's worth of snow. With our building El Nino in the Pacific, chances are good we will see above average snowfall this season.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late December
Post Posted: Dec 6, 2018 2:30 pm 
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Much colder temps today in wake of cold frontal passage. After some light snow this morning conditions mostly cleared out across eastern CO. Some snow will remain along and west of the Divide today with 1-2 inches possible.

For Friday, upper low that is currently bringing very heavy rain to southern CA will move across the Desert Southwest and bring precip to portions of CO mostly along and west of the Divide, with heaviest snow south of I-70. Little if any snow expected in our foothills Friday. Temps should moderate on Friday with readings near average values.

Weekend weather continues to look dry statewide as temps rise a few degrees above average.

For next week, models keep Monday dry and mild with temps above average. Latest models now bring two separate systems across CO next week. First one will bring precip to western CO Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning with snow level around 5500 ft. Only a slight chance any precip will move east of the Front Range Crest, so a dusting at best for foothill and Urban Corridor areas. A stronger system will move into CO late Wednesday into Thursday. This system looks to have better chances for snow into eastern CO Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Friday into Sunday next week looks dry with temps near average. Most of the following week (Dec 17-21) also looks to remain dry, with precip chances returning late that week into the weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late December
Post Posted: Dec 7, 2018 3:47 pm 
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Mostly sunny day across the state today as clouds and precip remain to our south. Temps warming up to near seasonal norms today allowing for some melting finally.

Weekend weather is looking quite nice locally, and should be mostly dry outside of a few mountain flurries on Saturday. Temps will be near to slightly above average each day.

For next week, models agree on overall pattern, but of course have some differences. Monday will be dry and mild statewide as temps rise 5-10 degrees above average.

On Tuesday, GFS brings the first of two upper troughs across CO and will bring precip to areas along and west of the Front Range Crest. The ECMWF develops a cutoff upper low over SoCAL and keep CO dry on Tuesday. Precip with GFS solution would be light in the mountains anyway. Both models bring a stronger upper level trough into CO late Wednesday into Thursday. Snow will move into western CO Wednesday afternoon, and then spread into eastern CO Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. If models are correct, foothills and Urban Corridor could see 2-6 inches of snow with this system next week, but too far out for any certainty. Friday into Sunday looks dry statewide with temps near average.

For the following week, dry Monday and Tuesday, precip possible Wednesday, dry Thursday and Friday, then potentially bigger system Saturday into Sunday.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late December
Post Posted: Dec 10, 2018 2:49 pm 
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Higher clouds moving over the state today ahead of a system bringing precip to the Western Coast. Temps will be above average by 5-10 degrees for most areas and no precip expected statewide today. Pacific system will weaken as it moves over CO on Tuesday. Some light snow above 7000-8000 ft will be possible during the day on Tuesday across central and northern mountain areas, otherwise areas east of the mountains will remain dry with temps remaining above average. The big story this week will be strong winds in the foothills from Wednesday into the weekend.

Next and stronger system will move across CO late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Snow will move into areas along and west of the Divide after Noon on Wednesday, and strong westerly winds of 25-50 mph will develop in the foothills ahead of this system beginning Tuesday night with winds increasing during the day on Wednesday. Snow will push east into eastern CO Wednesday evening into Wednesday night but amounts will remain on the light side with generally less than 1 inch for areas east of the Front Range Crest. Mountain areas could see 2-5 inches from this system. Conditions will remain windy with much cooler temps on Thursday and a few mountain flurries.

Winds will finally diminish some on Friday as temps warm back to near average. No precip is expected statewide Friday through Sunday as temps remain slightly above average.

For next week, Monday and Tuesday look dry with temps remaining on the mild side. On Wednesday, GFS keeps things dry while ECMWF brings some snow to areas west of the Divide. Both models bring strong westerly winds to the foothills. Late next week into the following week models want to bring cold temps with snow to most of CO, so will see if that continues to be the case to set up a white xmas for CO.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late December
Post Posted: Dec 11, 2018 2:41 pm 
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Breezy to windy day for most areas with warm temps 5-10 degrees above average. After some light snowfall in the mountains this morning, mostly clear skies this afternoon. Wind will be the primary weather factor for foothill areas through Thursday. Winds will diminish some this evening but then will begin to increase tonight ahead of next system. Upper trough will move over CO late Wednesday with snow moving into areas west of the Divide Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of this system westerly winds will pick up from 30-60 mph in local foothill areas. Cold front will move across CO Wednesday afternoon and move through the foothills between 3 pm and 6 pm Wednesday. This will be the best time for foothill areas to see a brief period of snow that could result in a dusting to a 1/2 inch on the ground. Winds will become northwesterly behind front and remain very strong into the evening and overnight hours. Some snow will be possible across areas of the Palmer Divide and eastern CO Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, but amounts would remain on the light side. Mountain areas may see 2-5 inches.

Temps will be much cooler on Thursday and remain below average. Northwest winds will gradually diminish during the day, but remain strong across the eastern plains through Thursday evening.

Friday through Sunday should remain mostly dry statewide as temps rise back above average by 5-10 degrees each day.

For next week, it appears Co will remain mostly dry Monday through Friday, with a slight chance for some light precip Monday into Tuesday morning mostly across southwest and south central CO. Temps will likely remain above average all week for most areas with some periods of gusty westerly winds. By next weekend we may see a chance for cooler temps and some light snow Sunday, however models from today look to keep CO mostly dry through xmas and beyond.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late December
Post Posted: Dec 18, 2018 2:28 pm 
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Dry and mild day across the state today as temps remain 5-15 degrees above average. A weak upper level trough will move over CO Wednesday with some impacts. For most of the state the big impact will be strong northwest winds of 25-50 mph from tonight through Wednesday evening. The mountains along and west of the Front Range Crest will see some snow of 2-6 inches that will combine with strong winds to create tough travel conditions on Wednesday. Strongest winds tonight into Wednesday morning will be in the mountains and foothills, but winds will become strong across eastern CO Wednesday afternoon and evening that may create blowing dust that could impact travel over the eastern plains. Winds will begin to subside Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Snow should subside Wednesday night in the mountains.

Upper level ridge will move over CO late this week keeping temps well above average and mostly dry statewide Thursday and Friday. By late Friday, some light snow in the mountains will be possible, and westerly winds will increase in the mountains and foothills.

On Saturday, another weak upper level trough will move over CO and bring more snow to the mountains. The ECMWF is stronger with this system and brings snow into the foothills and eastern plains during the day on Saturday, while the GFS keeps snow west of the Front Range Crest. Will have to wait and see how models resolve differences in the next day or so, but temps will be back closer to seasonal norms on Saturday.

Sunday looks mostly dry except for a few snow showers over higher terrain and temps will remain near average for most areas.

For next week, models are struggling with a consistent solution. In general, models want to keep a large upper trough over much of the Western U.S. next week, but the details of individual systems is a bit convoluted. It appears there will be decent snow chances for much of Colorado from Tuesday through next weekend and temps will be at or below average most of the week. Hopefully models will begin to coalesce around a solution and some details will emerge. For now, keep the possibility of snow open for much of the week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late December
Post Posted: Dec 19, 2018 2:37 pm 
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Windy day across the state today. Snow occurring in the mountains from the Front Range Crest west with even a little spill over snow into western foothill areas this morning. Snow amounts will generally be 2-6 inches except up to 10 inches over the northern mountains, and combined with 30-60 mph winds creating tough travel conditions. Strong northwest winds will increase over eastern CO this afternoon with gusts to 60 mph that may create blowing dust and cause reduced visibility for travel. Snow in the mountains and wind everywhere will diminish this evening, but remain gusty in areas overnight. Temps will remain above average for eastern CO today, while near average west of the Divide.

Thursday will be a more tranquil day across the state, with generally sunny skies and light winds, with temps remaining above average.

Friday will see winds increase once again ahead of next weak system that will move over CO. Westerly winds inf 20-45 mph will impact mountain and foothill areas during the day, and some light snow will be possible in mountain areas Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Generally less than 2 inches expected for mountain areas above 6000 ft. Winds and snow should diminish Friday night.

Saturday will see a stronger system move across the state during the day. Snow will move into western CO Saturday morning, and then move east into the foothills and eastern CO Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Mountains look to pick up another 2-6 inches, while foothill areas could see 1-3 inches, and generally less than 1 inch east of the foothills. Temps will be near average on Saturday. Sunday should see mostly dry conditions to start as temps remain near average. There will be a chance for snow across areas west of the Divide Sunday afternoon and evening.

For next week, models beginning to come into better agreement, but there are still some pretty significant differences in timing for precip next week. In general, upper trough will carve out over the western U.S. early next week and remain most of the week as systems move through. GFS brings snow to western CO late Monday and moves it over most of eastern CO during the day on Tuesday and keeps snow going into Wednesday, while the ECMWF hold precip off until Tuesday evening across western CO and brings it over eastern CO Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Temps will remain mostly below average next week. Thursday will see isolated snow showers but not much actual accumulation, then drier conditions on Friday statewide as temps remain cool.

For next weekend, Saturday looks mostly dry statewide, then next system will bring more snow late Sunday into Monday for most of the state, then mostly dry and warmer temps the first week of January.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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