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 Post subject: Weather Outlook Into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 25, 2018 3:37 pm 
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Mostly sunny but cool day across the state with temps 5-10 degrees below average. Winds have mostly subsided to "normal" speeds with some higher gusts over higher terrain of the mountains.

For the week ahead, models beginning to come into better agreement. Overall, expect a more active weather pattern this week that will see frequent mountain snow and some light precip east of the Divide as Pacific systems transit across the state.

Monday and Tuesday look pretty tranquil as upper ridge moves over CO. Temps will be near average Monday then above average Tuesday.

From Wednesday through the weekend, a series of Pacific systems will move down from the Pacific Northwest and across CO. First system will bring precip into CO from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Snow level will be near 8000 ft Wednesday lowering to 6000 ft Thursday morning. Majority of precip will be along and west of the Divide with 2-5 inches of new snow possible. Foothills may see a dusting at best Wednesday night.

On Thursday, a stronger system will move into the Great Basin that will move across CO on Friday. Precip will move into western CO Friday morning with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will spread east Friday afternoon into Saturday morning with snow level down to 4500 ft. This system should bring 6-12 inches to the mountains, and 1-3 inches will be possible in our foothills and along the Urban Corridor. Snow amounts will depend on eventual track and timing of system as usual.

Next system will be right on the heels of previous system and bring a new round of precip into CO Sunday morning into Monday morning. Snow level wll be below 4000 ft with this system, and an additional 4-8 inches for the mountains, and 1-3 inches from the foothills to the eastern plains will be possible.

For next week, another system will bring a fresh round of snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. A little break mid week, then another potentially bigger system on tap for late next week.

An update on our blossoming El Nino. The weekly ONI in the Nino 3.4 region is currently +0.7, which puts conditions in the weak El Nino range. These conditions are expected to persist and possibly increase into the Winter months before beginning to subside in the Spring months of 2019. This will hopefully bring above average snowfall to most of CO, and especially eastern CO. We are also in a positive phase of the MJO which should bring enhanced precipitation for CO from late November into mid December. Our current snowfall on Conifer Mountain is 27.0 inches, which is right at our average through the end of November. The ENSO pattern for this season is very similar to the 2006/2007 season. I am not saying we will have an extreme snowfall year like that this year, but hopefully we will see above average snowfall. We have never had below average snowfall on Conifer Mountain in an El Nino season since records have been kept.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 26, 2018 12:56 pm 
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Mostly sunny day statewide with light winds and temps near average today. Pretty much the same for Tuesday except temps will rise 5-10 degrees above average.

Our more active pattern begins on Wednesday with some light snow developing along and west of the Divide Wednesday morning with snow level 7000-8000 ft. A dry day is expected east of the Divide through Wednesday afternoon and temps will remain above average. Models suggest precip will move into the foothills and Urban Corridor Wednesday evening into Thursday morning with snow level near 7000 ft. Currently looks like 2-6 inches possible in the mountains, with only a dusting east of the Divide.

On Thursday, precip will persist along and west of the Divide most of the day with snow level 7000-8000 ft. East of the Divide little if any precip expected. Upper level trough will move over CO late Thursday into Friday, which will spread precip east into eastern Co Thursday night into Friday evening as snow level lowers to 5000-6000 ft, with precip diminishing Friday night into Saturday morning. Mountains look to pick up an additional 4-8 inches, while foothills and Urban Corridor may see 1/2 to 2 inches of snow above 6000 ft.

There will be a slight break in precip during the day on Saturday before next Pacific system moves in. GFS is stronger with next system as it digs upper trough over CO, while ECMWF keeps majority of energy to our north. Since GFS has been performing better recently, will use this model as primary guidance for next system until proven otherwise. Snow would move into western CO Saturday afternoon into evening, and spread into eastern Co Saturday night and persist all day Sunday, then diminish Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow level would be below 4000 ft with this system, so an all snow event for CO. For amounts, mountains looking at 6-18 inches, with 4-10 inches for foothill areas and 3-7 inches for Urban Corridor and eastern plains. However, if ECMWF is more accurate, snow amounts would be much lower with only a few inches in local foothill areas. I will continue to monitor and update. Overall, it is looking like a good 7-10 day period for precip across the state as temps remain mostly below average after Wednesday.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 27, 2018 1:48 pm 
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Warm and partly cloudy day across the state with some mountain wave clouds along the Front Range today. Temps will be 5-10 degrees above average most areas today with no precip expected. Some gusty westerly winds will be possible tonight in the foothills with speeds of 25-50 mph. Some light snow will be possible in the northern mountains overnight as well.

Wednesday will be the last warm day for a while as our weather pattern become much more active through the weekend. The mountains along and west of the Front Range Crest will receive nearly continuous snowfall from late Wednesday through Monday, with 2-3 feet of snow possible during this time frame. East of the Front Range Crest, much less precip will fall, but temps will cool back to normal or below Thursday through Monday.

Here are the details. Precip will become likely during the day from the Divide west with snow level near 8000 ft. Precip will intensify day evening into Thursday morning along and west of the Front Range Crest as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Little if any precip is expected east of the Front Range Crest. During the day on Thursday, precip will continue in the mountains most of the day on Thursday with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Will mark this as the first system, and mountains should get 4-8 inches of snow during this period above 7000 ft.

Next and stronger system moves into CO Thursday night into Saturday morning. Mountains will again see near continuous snowfall during this period. Precip moves into western CO west of the Divide Thursday night with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will spread east during the day on Friday and remain mostly along and west of the Front Range Crest, but some precip will make it's way into eastern CO Friday afternoon and evening. Best chances currently look to be across the northeast plains, with only a slight chance for any precip in our foothills. Snow level looks to remain near 6000 ft on Friday, so precip across northeast CO will likely fall as rain. Foothills may see a dusting of snow above 6000 ft. Precip will diminish Friday night into Saturday morning, with best chances over the mountains. For this system, mountains likely to see an additional 5-10 inches of snow above 6000 ft.

Saturday appears to be a break day, so only limited snow in the mountains, so if you're thinking of heading up skiing, Saturday is the day. Mostly dry statewide outside of some mountain flurries Saturday, but temps will be below average. Next and even stronger system will arrive in CO Sunday into Monday. Latest models bring upper level trough into the Great Basin Sunday and move it across CO Sunday night into Monday. Still some differences in models on track and intensity of system, but the overall broad pattern is agreed upon. This system will be colder, so all snow for CO. Snow will move into southwestern CO Saturday night into Sunday morning and spread east into eastern CO during the day on Sunday and persist into Monday morning. Snow amounts will depend on actual track, but at current time mountains looks to get an additional 6-18 inches with highest amounts over the southwest mountains. Foothills could see 4-8 inches, and 2-6 inches possible along teh Urban Corridor and plains. Heaviest amounts appear to be south of I-70 as the primary circulation moves along the CO/NM border, but if models change track, snow amounts will change. Sunday could be a tough travel day across much of CO. Snow is expected to taper off Monday morning with some flurries during the day on Monday as temps remain well below average.

For the rest of next week, models suggest dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as temps remain below average. Some snow possible late Thursday into Friday, then dry next weekend as temps return to near average values.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 28, 2018 1:41 pm 
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Clouds have begun to funnel into CO from first Pacific storm this afternoon, with some precip along and west of the Divide. Snow level is around 8000-9000 ft today, and will lower to around 6000 ft overnight. Precip will intensify overnight and move east to about the Front Range Crest with 3-7 inches of snow possible in mountain areas. East of the Divide, temps will remain above average today with some gusty westerly winds at times in the foothills.

On Thursday, precip will persist along and west of the Divide with snow level near 8000 ft. East of the Divide mostly cloudy skies with temps slightly above average.

Next Pacific system will bring renewed precip to western CO Thursday night into Friday morning with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will spread east during the day on Friday and move into eastern CO Friday afternoon into Friday night. Mountains will pick up an additional 5-10 inches of snow from this system, with lesser amounts east of the Divide. In our foothills and the Urban Corridor, looks like a dusting for most areas with up to 2 inches in favored areas possible. Northeast plains may pick up 2-4 inches from this system as snow level lowers to 4000 ft by Saturday morning.

On Saturday, lingering snow showers will persist much of teh day in the mountains, but only light additional accumulations expected. Mostly dry east of the Divide with temps slightly below average.

Models still struggling on a precise solution for the next system Sunday into Monday. The big picture has a large upper trough over the western U.S. and a blocking upper ridge over the northern Great Plains. Where the actual circulation center tracks is the big question. ECMWF keep a mostly westerly flow over CO Sunday while the GFS develops a closed circulation that tracks across southern CO on Sunday. Hence, the GFS solution would bring much more snow to eastern CO than the ECMWF solution. Using the GFS solution, foothills would pick up 3-7 inches of snow Sunday into Monday, while the ECMWF solution would deposit less than 2 inches. I will keep my hopes up that the GFS has a better handle on this. Temps would be well below average with way on Sunday.

For next week, after some lingering flurries Monday morning, clearing and cool temps expected on Monday. Dry and cool weather should persist on Tuesday as temps remain 5-10 degrees below average. There will be a chance for some additional precip next Wednesday into Thursday with best chances along and west of the Divide.

Next Friday through Sunday looks dry statewide with temps near average.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 29, 2018 12:22 pm 
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Mostly sunny and breezy day east of the Divide today with temps near to slightly above average. West of the Divide, snow will persist but gradually diminish through the day with snow level around 8000 ft today.

Pacific system that is causing mudslide concerns over CA today will move into western CO early Friday morning. Precip will extend east to about Vail Pass early Friday morning then precip will move east during the day and extend into portions of eastern CO Friday afternoon and evening. Snow level will be near 6000 ft across most of CO on Friday. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for mountain areas along and west of the Divide from 8 PM this evening through Noon on Saturday. Mountain areas are expected to receive 5-10 inches of snow through Saturday, while much less east of the Divide. Latest models suggest anywhere from nothing to about 2 inches will be possible in the foothills and Palmer Divide above 6000 ft, with best chances to see accumulating snow from Noon Friday through Midnight Friday night. NAM is driest of models while the GFS and ECMWF bring some light precip into our foothills. Travel could be difficult across mountain areas on Friday.

On Saturday, snow will diminish in the mountains during the morning with just some flurries in the afternoon with snow level around 4000 ft. The far northeast plains may also see some snow on Saturday as exiting system winds up in the Central Plains and may create some wrap-around snow across northeast CO. Other areas, like our foothills, should remain dry on Saturday with temps below average.

For our next system Sunday into Monday, latest models have begun to diminish intensity and precip potential with this system. A complex upper level pattern will inhibit the development of a closed circulation over CO, so more of a general upper trough will prevail over CO on Sunday. Best snow chances will be over the southwest mountains where an additional 5-10 inches are possible. Elsewhere, snow amounts on Sunday look to remain light as temps remain well below average. Best chance for accumulating snow in our foothills will be Sunday afternoon and evening, where a trace to 2 inches will be possible with similar light amounts across most of eastern CO. Snow will diminish Sunday night with just a few lingering flurries around by Monday morning.

For next week, a cool start to the week as temps should remain below average most of the week. Forecast calls for dry conditions statewide Monday through Wednesday outside of a few mountain flurries Wednesday afternoon. Models then suggest a weak upper trough will move over CO late Thursday into Friday and bring precip chances back to CO. Precip will move into western CO during the day on Thursday with snow level around 6000 ft. Precip will move east to about the I-25 corridor overnight into Friday morning, but any snow amounts expected to remain light east of the Divide, while several inches will be possible in the mountains. Snow may persist through about Noon Friday then diminish.

Next weekend looks dry statewide with temps near average.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 30, 2018 1:06 pm 
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Precip moved into western CO this morning and has begun to spread into eastern CO this afternoon with snow level near 6000 ft. Best chances for snow in our foothills will be between 2 pm and 8 pm today. Latest models still suggest only a dusting to an inch or two at most for our area. Mountains still look to pick up 5-10 inches today into Saturday morning. Precip will mostly end by midnight across the state outside of a few lingering flurries in the mountains through Noon Saturday. Roads could become a little slick late this afternoon and evening at higher elevations. The other impact with this system will be strong westerly winds developing tonight into Saturday morning with speeds of 15-40 mph in our foothills. Temps will be near seasonal averages today.

On Saturday, temps will be below average statewide. Clearing conditions in the mountains, but far northeast CO may see a period of wrap-around snow from developing system in the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Mostly dry conditions in the foothills as winds subside in the afternoon.

Models have weakened system for Sunday. Temps will remain below average, but precip will be mostly light. Snow will move into southwest CO early Sunday morning and then spread east during the day. Heaviest precip will remain south of I-70 across the state. Best chances for snow in our foothills will be from late Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. Amounts expected to remain light, so looking at another dusting to 2 inches locally. It may be just enough to snarl the Monday morning commute however. Snow will diminish Monday morning with clearing conditions through the day as temps remain well below average. Southwest mountains could see an additional 4-8 inches from this system, with 2-5 inches in other mountain areas.

For next week, temps will remain below average all week, with much below temps early in the week. For precip, some light snow may be possible Tuesday afternoon along and west of the Divide, dry elsewhere. Next precip chances come late Thursday into Friday as system moves to our south. Best precip chances will be along and south of I-70 with snow level near 7000 ft. For next weekend, a few mountain snow showers possible late Saturday into Sunday morning, dry elsewhere as temps remain near to slightly below average.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Early December
Post Posted: Dec 2, 2018 10:44 am 
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Cool day today as temps will remain well below average statewide, with locally high temps in the low 20's. Next system is bringing snow to western CO this morning south of I-70 and west of Vail Pass. Models wash most of the energy associated with this system out, but enough will remain to bring light snow to much of CO along and west of the Divide today, with some snow spreading east into the foothills and Urban Corridor this afternoon into Monday. Latest models keep light snow going through Monday evening, but amounts will remain on the lights side. Snow amounts will be 2-5 inches in the mountains, with highest amounts in the southwest and south central mountains. Locally, we are looking at somewhere between a trace and up to 2 inches in favored spots. So not significant system, but could create some slick spots in roads for the morning commute.

On Monday temps will remain well below average with high temps again in the low 20's, and light snow will persist through much of the day, but not much if any additional accumulation expected. Skies should begin to clear Monday night as temps drop into single digits to near zero.

For the remainder of the week, temps are expected to remain below average through Friday. Fore precip, we should have dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday statewide. By Thursday, a weak upper trough will move to our south and bring a chance for light snow back into western CO from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Not much if any snow expected east of the Front Range Crest with this system.

The weekend looks to remain dry statewide as temps remain near to slightly below average.

For next week, models keep the state dry Monday and Tuesday as temps rise above average. Next chance for precip will be Wednesday into Thursday and then again over the weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Into Early December
Post Posted: Dec 3, 2018 11:38 am 
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Another cool day across the state as temps will remain in teh 20's in the foothills today. A weak piece of energy will pass over the state today and create snow showers that will move from the mountains into the foothills this afternoon and then onto the Urban Corridor and plains this evening. Best chances for snow in the foothills looks to be between 1 pm and 6 pm today with most areas seeing less than 1 inch, but isolated amounts of 2 inches will be possible in heavier showers. Mountain areas could see 2-5 inches, and Palmer Divide could see 1-3 inches. Snow will move east after 8 pm with clearing conditions overnight, leading to temps from Zero to 10 degrees locally. Snow could be enough to create some slick conditions on area roads this afternoon and evening.

Conditions dry out statewide Tuesday and Wednesday, but temps will remain below average each day. Models bring a weak upper trough over the Desert Southwest late this week that will provide enough lift as it moves over CO to bring snow to areas along and west of the Divide on Thursday with snow level 5000-6000 ft. Snow will remain possible Thursday night into Friday afternoon, but latest models keep precip along and west of the Front Range Crest, so little if any precip expected in our foothills and points east from this system. Mountains look to pick up 2-6 inches through Friday evening as temps remain below average Thursday and Friday.

Weekend weather looks to remain mostly dry outside of a few mountain flurries on Saturday with temps remaining below average. Sunday looks dry statewide as temps rise a bit closer to average.

For next week, dry conditions prevail Monday and Tuesday with temps near or slightly above average. By Wednesday another upper trough will move over the Desert Southwest and into CO Late Wednesday into Thursday. Models currently suggest vast majority of precip will remain along and west of the Divide, with only a slight chance for snow in the foothills next Thursday as temps drop below average again. Late next week conditions should again dry out Friday into Saturday with temps back above average. Next chance for precip will be next Sunday, and again mostly along and west of the Divide.

The following week shows better potential for precip into eastern CO, but will wait and see how things evolve.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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