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 Post subject: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 18, 2018 5:25 pm 
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Beautiful day across the state today as temps remain below average.

For the week ahead, models in good agreement through the coming weekend. Dry weather will prevail statewide Monday through Wednesday, so good travel weather for anyone heading to other parts of the state. Temps will be near to slightly below average Monday, then rise above average by a few degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Thanksgiving, conditions should be dry statewide through mid morning as temps remain on the warm side of average. By late morning clouds will increase along and west of the Divide leading to a chance for precip with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Snow will become likely Thursday afternoon along and west of the Front Range Crest as snow level lowers to 6000-7000 ft. Snow will persists through about midnight, then diminish. Models suggest 3-7 inches will be possible in the mountains. Dry conditions should prevail in our foothills with some gusty westerly winds on Thursday.

Friday will start out mostly sunny, then next system will quickly approach CO bringing a chance for some snow to areas along and west of the Divide by Friday afternoon. GFS and ECMWF both bring a upper trough across CO, but ECMWF is slower and deeper with the upper level system, although both models bring snow to most of CO Friday night into Saturday. Snow level would begin around 6000-7000 ft Friday in the mountains, then lower to below 4000 ft by Saturday. Models suggest snow will increase and spread into eastern CO Saturday morning with snow continuing during the day on Saturday statewide. GFS brings snow to an end Saturday evening, while ECMWF keeps snow going into Sunday morning. Models suggest 6-12 inches of snow for the mountains, with 4-8 inches possible in our foothills, 2-6 inches along the Urban Corridor and 1-3 inches on the plains. Of course actual amounts will depend on the track of the system, so stay tuned for updates this week. Sunday afternoon looks dry on both models.

If you are traveling out of the state, overall looks like decent travel weather this week. Some rain will fall along the West Coast Wednesday into Thursday, and then rain in the Ohio Valley and East Coast Friday into Saturday, but nothing that will seriously impact travel.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 20, 2018 1:56 pm 
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Sunny skies and mild temps across the state today as temps will be above average for most areas of the state. The dry and mild conditions are forecast to prevail through Wednesday with temps 5-10 degrees above average.

On Thanksgiving, conditions will remain dry and mild (temps 5-10 deg above average) east of the Divide, so no travel worries if you remain east of the Divide. On the west side of the Divide, precip will become likely during the afternoon and evening hours with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Foothill areas could see some gusty westerly winds Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Snow amounts in the mountains look to remain on the light side, with generally 2-5 inches possible through Friday morning. Snow should diminish overnight with just a few lingering flurries over higher terrain on Friday. Friday will remain dry east of the Divide as temps remain slightly above average.

Latest models have come into better agreement for our system this weekend, with ECMWF coming into alignment with the GFS this time. The latest forecast call for a progressive upper trough moving over CO late Friday into Saturday. AT the surface, precip will move into western CO Friday night with snow level around 7000 ft. This will be accompanied by some strong westerly winds in the mountains that will extend into the foothills with wind speeds of 25-50 mph. Associated cold front will move across CO from west to east during the day on Saturday which will lower snow level down to 4000 ft and bring precip into eastern CO during the day on Saturday. However, because winds remain westerly snow amounts will remain light east of the Front Range Crest, so foothill areas are only looking at 1/2 to 2 inches of snow on Saturday, and westerly winds will remain very string at 30-60 mph. Looks like best chances for accumulating snow will be from Noon to 5 pm Saturday locally. Mountains look to get 5-10 inches of snow, and combines with strong winds will create tough travel conditions over mountain passes. Urban Corridor and plains likely to see less than an inch of snow. Snow should diminish statewide after midnight Saturday, but northwest winds will become very strong across the eastern plains Saturday night into Sunday morning with speeds of 35-65 mph, which may cause travel issues for high profile vehicles. Westerly winds will remain strong in the mountains and foothills as well.

On Sunday, strong northwest winds across the eastern plains will gradually diminish through the day, while the rest of CO will see mostly sunny skies with light winds. Temps will remain on the cool side of average.

For next week, models keep CO mostly dry Monday through Wednesday as temps gradually warm back to average by mid week. Later in the week, models begin to suggest a more active weather pattern across most of the Western U.S. as a strong Pacific jetstream brings Pacific storms from the West Coast into the Rocky Mountains that could being additional precip into CO in early December.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 21, 2018 2:57 pm 
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I hope everyone is able to enjoy Thanksgiving in whatever way works best for you.

From a weather perspective, very nice day today under mostly sunny skies and temps 5-10 degrees above average.

For Thanksgiving, the morning should be nice statewide as temps remain above average. After Noon, things will change. Along and west of the Divide snow will begin with snow level 7000-8000 ft. East of the Divide, westerly winds will increase with speeds of 25-50 mph in the foothills. Precip will persist and move east to about the Front Range Crest Thursday night as snow level lowers to 5000-6000 ft. Westerly winds will increase overnight with gusts to 60-75 mph in the foothills with strongest winds north of I-70.

Snow will diminish in the mountains Friday morning with just some lingering flurries over higher terrain during the day. Westerly winds will remain strong during the day on Friday in the mountains and foothills with speeds of 30-60 mph. Temps will be near average on Friday.

Next and stronger system will move into CO Friday evening into Saturday evening. Snow will develop along and west of the Divide Friday night into Saturday morning with snow level near 6000 ft. Snow will intensify and spread east during the day on Saturday, combined with strong westerly winds of 25-50 mph will create very difficult driving conditions through the Mountains on Saturday. Snow will spread east into eastern CO Saturday afternoon and evening as snow level lowers to below 4000 ft. Snow will begin to diminish Saturday night into Sunday morning, but winds will actually increase across eastern CO Saturday night into Sunday morning with northwest winds of 30-60 mph east of the I-25 corridor. Northwest winds will remain strong in the foothills as well with speeds of 25-50 mph. For snow amounts, mountains looking at 8-16 inches with heaviest amounts central and northern mountains. Foothills and Urban Corridor looking at 1/2 to 2 inches due to downslope winds, but northeast plains may see 1-4 inches north of i-70, and less than and inch south of I-70.

On Sunday, most areas will be dry outside of a few mountain flurries. Winds will gradually diminish statewide but remain gusty across eastern CO. Temps will remain below average on Sunday.

For next week, Monday and Tuesday looks dry statewide with temps near average. Precip returns to the mountains west of the Divide on Wednesday with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Stronger system moves into CO Thursday into Friday, but vast majority of precip remains along and west of the Divide. Pattern suggest more precip will be possible in CO next weekend into the following week as temps look to remain mostly below average.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 23, 2018 10:21 am 
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WIND - that will be the primary weather influence in our foothills through Sunday morning. Farther west, Winter Storm Warnings will go into effect from 6 PM this evening through 5 AM Sunday for 8-16 inches of snow accompanied by 30-50 mph winds creating blizzard like conditions for areas along and west of the Front Range Crest. Travel will become difficult to impossible through mountain areas from tonight into Sunday morning.

Powerful Pacific system will begin to bring precip into western CO tonight with snow level near 7000 ft. Strong westerly winds will exist in the mountains and foothills ahead of this system during the day today with speeds of 25-55 mph that will increase overnight tonight with gusts to 65 mph possible. Precip will increase in coverage and intensity overnight into Saturday morning as snow spreads east to the Front Range Crest. Associated cold front will move from west to east across CO Saturday afternoon and this will move precip farther east into the foothills and eastern plains as snow level lowers to 4000 ft Saturday afternoon. Westerly winds will remain very strong during the day on Saturday in the mountains and foothills with speeds of 25-55 mph, creating white out conditions in the mountains. As the cold front passes Saturday afternoon, winds will remain strong but become northwest winds, and extend into eastern CO. For snow amounts, here is what the forecast looks like from tonight through Sunday morning:

Northern and Central Mountains: 8-16 inches with up top 2 feet possible
Southwest Mountains: 4-8 inches
Foothills, Palmer Divide and Urban Corridor: 1/2 to 2 inches
Northeast Plains (north of I-70): 1-3 inches
Southeast Plains (south of I-70): trace

Northwest winds will remain very strong Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially across the eastern plains. Snow and winds will diminish Sunday morning in the mountains and foothills, with a mostly sunny Sunday as temps will be well below average.

For next week, Monday and Tuesday look dry statewide as temper remain below average Monday and near average Tuesday. A weak system moves across the state on Wednesday, which will bring some snow to the mountains and a chance for some light snow into the foothills and Urban Corridor/plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday looks dry with temps near average. Late next week models begin to diverge on timing and track of next system. Bottom line is some snow will be possible across the state late next week into next weekend, but details remain uncertain at this time.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 24, 2018 9:27 am 
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Tough travel conditions today in the High Country with snow level near 7000 ft. Strong westerly winds of 25-50 mph will continue today in the mountains and foothills. Powerful cold front currently in WY and UT will move into western CO later this morning and this will intensify snowfall in the mountains. Front will move through foothills and Urban Corridor between Noon and 3 pm, which will be our best shot at brief snowfall in the foothills, although latest models suggest less than 1 inch will fall in most foothill areas. Winds will become northwesterly and temps will drop after cold frontal passage with snow level lowering to 4000 ft behind cold front. Strong northwest winds of 30-60 mph will develop behind cold front across eastern CO (east of I-25) this afternoon and evening, as NWS has issued a High Wind Warning for eastern plains through 2 AM Sunday. Travel with light or high profile vehicles will be difficult, thus overall not a good travel day either direction across CO today. An additional 4-10 inches of snow will be possible in the mountains today, so expect very difficult travel with delays and road closures.

Sunday looks to be a much nicer day as winds gradually subside, and only a few lingering flurries in the High Country as temps will be well below average.

For next week, models agree Monday and Tuesday will be dry statewide. Temps Monday near average, and above average Tuesday. On Wednesday, a weak system will bring some precip to the mountains mostly along and west of the Divide with snow level near 7000 ft. Only a slight chance any precip will male it farther eats into the foothills and Urban Corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening, with clearing overnight. Late next week, models not in very good agreement. ECMWF digs a closed upper low near the 4 Corners region Friday while the GFS has a open upper trough. Both models bring some precip to western CO late Thursday, and GFS brings precip into eastern CO on Friday. ECMWF brings precip to eaastern CO late Friday into Saturday. Either way it looks like some precip for our foothills late next week with more precip possible Sunday into Monday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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