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 Post subject: Weather Outlook Through Late November
Post Posted: Nov 7, 2018 1:45 pm 
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Upper level pattern remains locked with upper ridge off the West Coast and a strong northwest flow aloft over CO, as systems move from western Canada into CO.

For today, some light snow remains across the eastern plains, but mostly dry elsewhere. Temps remain below average statewide. Next system to move down from the northwest will move over CO tonight into Thursday morning. This system will keep snow mostly along and east of I-25, with 2-6 inches possible across the far northeast plains through Thursday morning, but generally less than an inch for areas along the Urban Corridor. Little if any snow expected in the foothills, while mountain areas may see an inch or so overnight. Temps remain well below average Thursday with highs remaining below freezing in the foothills.

Friday should see mostly sunny skies over CO as we are between systems, and temps will warm but remain below average. Saturday will also be dry statewide and temps will be the warmest of the week and close to seasonal norms. There will also be more wind with some gusty westerly winds in the mountains and foothills.

Next system will move down over CO late Saturday night into Sunday, and will bring cold temps and snow to much of CO during the day on Sunday into Sunday night. Snow will be heaviest from the Divide east across eastern CO. Currently looks like most areas will see 1-3 inches of light and fluffy snow. Snow will begin between 3-6 am Sunday and persist through Sunday afternoon then diminish overnight. Temps will remain cold on Sunday with high temps in the 20's in the foothills.

For next week, upper ridge moves east over the Rocky Mountains early in the week which will have temps rise to near average values by mid week and conditions will remain dry through next weekend as temps remain near average. Overall, the global upper level pattern will be transitioning to a more zonal pattern next week, but CO will remain south of the storm track. Current models keep CO mostly dry through Thanksgiving at this time.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Late November
Post Posted: Nov 9, 2018 1:18 pm 
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Crisp Fall day across the state today as temps remain below average under mostly sunny skies. Saturday should remain mostly sunny with some gusty westerly winds over higher terrain from late tonight into Saturday afternoon. Temps will warm to near average values on Saturday.

Next system will move down from the northwest Saturday night with snow developing to near the CO/WY border by midnight, and moving south of I-70 around Dawn Sunday morning. Temps will cold enough for an all snow event as snow level will remain below 4000 ft. Snow will increase in coverage and intensity during the day on Sunday and persist through Sunday evening. Snow will begin to diminish Sunday night with some light snow and flurries through Monday morning. Heaviest snow looks to be during the day on Sunday, and will exist from the Divide east to the Urban Corridor. Amounts generally look to be in the 2-6 inch range from Sunday morning through Monday morning from the Divide to the I-25 corridor. Lesser amounts expected west of the Divide and east of I-25 where amounts will generally be less than 1 inch. Temps will be cold on Sunday, with high temps remaining in the upper teens to low 20's for our foothills. Roads will likely become slick on Sunday with a mix of slush and snow pack that should persist into the Monday morning commute.

For next week, upper ridge moves over the western U.S. shich should keep CO dry and mild as temps will gradually warm to average or above values late next week. Dry weather should persist into next weekend as well.

For Thanksgiving week, models hint at cooler temps with some snow chances early in the week, and then after Thanksgiving as well.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Late November
Post Posted: Nov 13, 2018 1:19 pm 
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Mostly sunny skies on tap through Friday this week. Temps running below average today, then will be at or above average Wednesday through Friday. Latest models bring a upper level trough and associated cold front over CO Friday night into Saturday, The impact will be much cooler temps on Saturday and a chance for some light snow for much of CO during the day on Saturday. Latest estimates are from a trace to 2 inches of snow possible for our local foothills, with lesser amounts across the Urban Corridor and plains. Mountains may see 1-3 inches. Snow will diminish Saturday night with clearing on Sunday as temps remain below average.

For next week, dry and mild conditions expected Monday through Wednesday. ECMWF then brings a chance for precip to western CO Wednesday night into Thursday morning with bulk of precip remaining along and west of the Divide with snow level near 6000 ft. Foothills could see a dusting to an inch or so. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps CO dry and mild through Friday, so not sure at this time which models is correct, but leaning towards the ECMWF. Next Friday looks dry, then additional precip will be possible Saturday, then dry on Sunday. This far out, this could all change.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Late November
Post Posted: Nov 15, 2018 4:00 pm 
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Mostly sunny skies and mild temps will persist across CO through Friday. Temps running above average today and will be even a little warmer on Friday. Models bring a cold front south over CO Friday night and snow will develop begind front across northern CO Friday night. Models keep snow generally north of I-70 through Saturday morning, then slowly move snow south to the southern foothills and Palmer Divide during the afternoon hours. Snow moves south to about US 50 late Saturday afternoon into evening. Snow will gradually taper off from north to south after midnight, with generally clearing by Sunday morning. Amounts look to remain on the light side, with heaviest amounts north of I-70. In general, local foothill areas can expect from a trace to 2 inches of snow for this event. Northern foothill areas could see up to 4 inches, but that is about the maximum. Mountains and eastern plains are in the same trace to 2 inch category for this system. Temps will be well below average on Saturday and should remain below freezing for most areas.

Sunday should be dry after a few early morning flurries mostly over areas south of I-70. Temps will remain below average on Sunday with mostly sunny skies by afternoon.

For Thanksgiving week, models keep a upper level ridge over CO Monday through Wednesday which should keep CO free of any precipitation and keep temps at to slightly above average. For Thanksgiving, GFS keeps CO dry and mild, while the ECMWF brings some snow to mountain areas along and west of the Divide in the afternoon and evening hours. Foothills remain dry either way on Turkey Day. On Friday, GFS continues the dry and mild pattern, while ECMWF keeps some flurries over mountain areas. Dry in the foothills.

For next weekend, GFS keeps CO dry while the ECMWF has a more progressive upper level pattern that would bring another system into CO on Saturday with heavy snow in the mountains that would spread into eastern CO later Saturday into Sunday. Will have to wait and see how things evolve.

I am out in CA this week, and my heart goes out to those affected by the deadly fires out here. I have an elementary school teacher I have stayed in tough with over the years that lives in Paradise, and no one has heard from her, so hoping she made it out safely. Smoke has reduced visibility to less than 3 miles in much of the Bay Area, and below 1/2 mile in the Sacramento Valley causing health concerns.

Elsewhere, the first winter storm of the season is impacting the mid Atlantic and Northeast today into Friday which will create many travel delays and flight cancellations. Snow even fell over portions of the South yesterday.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Late November
Post Posted: Nov 17, 2018 1:26 pm 
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Light freezing drizzle and snow beginning to move south across CO this morning into the afternoon. Precip should change over to all snow this afternoon and heaviest snow will be from late this afternoon through midnight, then diminish into Sunday morning. Latest models keep snowfall under 2 inches for most areas, with the exception of 2-5 inches across the northern foothills north of I-70. Locally we should see 1/2 to 2 inches. Since this system is a shallow upslope system lower foothill areas may see heavier snow than higher elevations. Roads likely to become slick this afternoon through Sunday morning, with possible ice underneath snow. Visibility will also be reduced in the foothills through midnight. Overall, not a bad day to stick close to home. On my drive down to Conifer this morning to gather groceries, if my car were an airplane I would have reported light to moderate clear icing. Temps way below average today with below freezing temps most areas all day.

Sunday should be a mostly sunny day but temps will remain below average statewide.

For the upcoming Holiday week, Monday through Wednesday look dry statewide, and temps will be near to slightly below average. By Thursday, models suggest a upper level ridge will develop in the central Pacific, which will allow a series of storms to move from the Gulf of Alaska southeast into the Pacific Northwest and then into the northern and central Rockies. This should set up an active weather pattern for CO from Thursday into next weekend, especially for the mountains. First system will move into western CO Thursday afternoon and bring snow to areas along and west of the Divide above 7000 ft. Snow will move eats to about the Front Range Crest Thursday night a snow level lowers to 5000 ft. Currently looks like not much more than a dusting possible for western foothill areas Thursday night. Mountains could see 5-10 inches.

Precip will lighten Friday morning in the mountains with mostly clear skies east of the Divide. Next system moves into CO Friday afternoon into Saturday. Snow will increase along and west of the Divide Friday afternoon and move east to about the Front Range Crest Friday night into Saturday morning with snow level 5000-6000 ft. Snow will push east into eastern CO Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, then diminish with only a few flurries in the mountains Sunday. Temps will remain below average Thursday through Sunday statewide.

More precip is forecast for the Monday after Thanksgiving as active pattern persists. Drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then more precip Thursday into Friday. Good news is that CA will begin to get precip next week and beyond which will help extinguish current fires.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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