Weather Outlook into Early November
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Author:  wxgeek [ Oct 31, 2018 4:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Weather Outlook into Early November

Well, that was quite a shock to the system to go from upper 80's and very humid to mid 20's and snow in less than 24 hours. At least the drive back up last night at midnight was very pretty, and with no traffic quite easy.

Most local areas saw 4-8 inches of snow, which helps with our moisture deficit. Despite October having a record 10 days with measurable snow, we still only managed 13.5 inches of snow at my location with is still just shy of average for October (14.5 inches). Very pleasant day as temps will remain below average today.

The upper level pattern has a large upper ridge just off the CA coast, with a brisk northwest flow aloft over CO. This pattern is expected to remain in place for a few days and will allow a series of fast moving storms to move from the Pacific Northwest across CO the next 7-10 days.

Thursday will see some snow in the mountains mostly along and west of the Divide above 7000-8000 ft during the day on Thursday, but foothill areas should remain dry with temps remaining slightly below average. Friday should be mostly dry statewide with some breezy westerly winds at times at higher elevations. Temps should be near seasonal norms most areas.

The next system is now forecast to move down over CO Friday night into Saturday. GFS is a little stronger with this system currently, but both GFS and ECMWF bring heavy snow to the mountains and some light snow to the foothills between Friday evening and Saturday afternoon. Snow level looks to be 7000-8000 ft Friday night lowering to near 6000 ft Saturday afternoon. Currently looks like 5-10 inches possible in the mountains with heaviest amounts along and north of I-70, while foothill areas may see 1-3 inches of snow and little if any expected east of the foothills. Temps should be below average Saturday most areas. Conditions should mostly clear Saturday night with cool temps overnight. Another system is fast on the heels of this system and will bring new precip to areas of western CO along and west of the Divide Sunday afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Models bring a chance for this snow to move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor Sunday evening into Monday morning as snow level lowers to 5000-6000 ft. Currently looks like 1-3 inches possible in the foothills Sunday night. Temps will be near average during the day on Sunday but lower to below average on Monday.

For next week, pattern remains in place, so there will be periods of mountain snow with some snow possible in the foothills Tuesday night into Wednesday with cool temps and some lingering snow on Thursday. Then more precip chances next weekend. In general, a pattern like this will bring frequent precip chances, especially to the mountains, but amounts will remain mostly on the light side unless a system digs and intensifies, which models do not suggest at this time.

Author:  wxgeek [ Nov 1, 2018 3:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Early November

Fairly nice day across the state today with a few mountain flurries above 8000 ft, but mostly sunny elsewhere as temps are running on the col side of average.

Next system to impact CO will move down from the northwest on Friday with precip developing along and west of the Divide Friday evening and then moving east into eastern CO Friday night into Saturday morning. Gusty westerly winds will be in place Friday as temps warm to near to slightly above average. Snow level with this system will start near 8000 ft and lower to near 5000 ft by Saturday morning. Mostly light precip expected east of the Front Range Crest, but 5-10 inches of snow will be possible over the central and northern mountains, which may cause travel issues over mountain passes. For foothill areas, generally looking at from a trace to 2 inches of snow from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon. Temps will remain below average on Saturday. Conditions will clear out Saturday night with cool temps by Sunday morning.

Sunday will start out nice, then next system moves in quickly with precip developing along and west of the Divide by late Sunday morning and will move east Sunday afternoon and evening to about the I-25 corridor. Snow level begins near 8000 ft Sunday afternoon lowering to 6000 ft by Monday morning. Mountains could see an additional 6-12 inches of snow Sunday into Monday, while foothill areas may see another 1/2 to 2 inches. Snow could persist into Monday afternoon, then diminish Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Temps look to remain below average Monday.

Tuesday looks to remain mostly dry statewide as temps remain below average. Next system is forecast to move into western CO Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with snow down to 4000-5000 ft. Snow will move east into eastern CO during the day on Wednesday and finally diminish Wednesday night.

Thursday into next weekend looks dry statewide as temps will gradually warm to above average by next weekend.

Longer range models suggest a upper level pattern change the following week which shows the potential for a stronger system for CO Tuesday Nov 13 through Thursday Nov 15, but that remains in the fairy tale category for now.

Author:  wxgeek [ Nov 2, 2018 2:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Early November

Breezy day across much of the state today as strong northwest flow aloft and a strong surface pressure gradient combine to create breezy to windy conditions across much of the state. A few snow flurries at higher elevations today but nothing noteworthy. Temps running near to slightly above average in most areas, with downslope winds creating warming on east side of mountains. As n ext system approaches CO tonight, winds will pick up with speeds in the 30-60 mph range possible in the mountains and foothills. Snow will also pick up tonight along and west of the Front Range Crest with snow level around 8000 ft at midnight lowering to 6000 ft by Saturday morning. Mountains expected to pick up 5-10 inches from tonight through Saturday afternoon. Best precip chances in our foothills will be between midnight and 6 am where a dusting to an inch or two will be possible. Saturday will remain cool and breezy with isolated showers possible though Saturday afternoon. Not expecting any additional accumulation in the foothills during the day, but travel across mountain passes will likely include winter driving conditions. Conditions should clear out Saturday night and winds will subside.

Sunday starts out cool but mostly sunny, then next system will move into western CO Sunday afternoon and precip moves east to near the foothills Sunday evening into Monday morning. Snow level start out around 8000 ft Sunday afternoon and lowers to near 6000 ft by Monday morning. Mountains likely to see an additional 5-10 inches of snow, while foothills may see a dusting to 2 inches through Monday afternoon. Conditions should clear out by Monday evening as temps remain below average Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday looks to remain dry statewide as temps remain on the cool side of average. Next system moves down over CO Wednesday into Thursday. Snow should move into CO Wednesday afternoon and intensify across all of CO Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Friday looks dry and cool.

Models then begin to diverge next weekend, as GFS bring another upper trough over CO with more snow, while the ECMWF builds upper ridge over CO and keeps things dry and mild. It appears the larger scale upper level pattern will be going through a long wave cycle change late next week, so it may take the models a few days to get things sorted.

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