Weather Outlook into Early October
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Author:  wxgeek [ Sep 24, 2018 12:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Weather Outlook into Early October

Cold front is moving through CO today and has brought a brief shot of light rain and showers to some areas. Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the cold front with gusts to 40 mph at higher elevations which will elevate fire danger through tonight. Temps will lower to near or below freezing tonight in mountain and foothill areas. After a chilly start on Tuesday, expect mostly dry conditions, although some fog will be possible in the foothills Tuesday morning as stratus forms over the eastern plains and pushes into the foothills. Temps will remain below average on Tuesday with cooler air in place.

For the rest of the week, expect dry conditions statewide as temps warm above average Wednesday through Sunday. No precip is expected statewide, thus fire danger will remain high this week.

For next week, as we begin October the weather looks more interesting. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring precip to most of CO early next week, yet for different reasons. GFS brings the remnants of a tropical system off Baja over CO on Tuesday, while the ECMWF brings a vigorous upper trough over CO late Monday into Wednesday. GFS would bring warmer precip late Tuesday, while ECMWF would bring precip chances from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon and would lower snow level to near 8000 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Not sure which solution will verify, but either way we should see some precip early next week. Later next week looks dry, with the potential for more precip next weekend into early the following week.

Author:  wxgeek [ Sep 25, 2018 2:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Early October

Mostly sunny day across the state today with no precip expected. Temps will be close to seasonal norms today. Temps will warm Wednesday into Thursday and no precip expected. Models have a cold front that will move down through eastern CO Thursday night which will cool temps below average on Friday, but no precip is expected with this front, only some low clouds across eastern CO and possibly into the foothills Thursday night into Friday morning that could hang around through much of the day on Friday. So fogy conditions may persist into the foothills much of the day on Friday as a result.

Weekend weather looks warm and dry as upper ridge moves over CO with southwest flow aloft over the state. With warm temps and dry conditions, fire danger will remain elevated over the weekend.

For next week, models not really certain what will happen at this point. Fall tends to be a tough time for models as they do not do all that well during the transition seasons. GFS brings moisture from tropical storm Rosa off Baja across CO Monday night into Tuesday afternoon, while the ECMWF keeps Rosa well offshore and does npot have any precip chances for CO until late Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS also brings a cold upper trough over CO late next week into next weekend with snow down to 7000-8000 ft while the ECMWF builds a upper ridge and keeps CO warm and dry. Hence, will have to wait and see how things evolve.

Author:  wxgeek [ Sep 27, 2018 2:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Early October

Dry and mild day across the state today as temps run above average. As upper trough drops into the Northern Plains a cold front will drop south across eastern CO tonight and bring low clouds across eastern CO and push foggy conditions into the foothills up to about 7500-8500 ft. Low clouds will persist through about Noon before slowly retreating. Temps will remain well below normal on Friday across eastern CO, and near average from the foothills west.

Weekend weather will remain dry and temps will rise above average.

For next week, models still struggling to come to consensus on a solution. In general terms, the GFS brings moisture from hurricane Rosa combined with an upper level trough over CO on Tuesday with precip across most of the state, but with heaviest precip along and west of the Divide. The ECMWF brings moisture from Rosa across western CO on Wednesday, so limits precip to areas mostly west of the Divide, and then slowly moves upper level low across the Desert Southwest through Friday with best chances for precip across eastern CO Friday into Saturday. Given the continued uncertainty in the forecast for next week, confidence in anything is quite low.

The following week models suggest the potential for more precip and much cooler temps, but time will tell if that holds true.

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