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 Post subject: Florence
Post Posted: Sep 12, 2018 3:54 pm 
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Since the weather across CO is not gonna change much, the focus of the next few posts will focus on the much more dynamic weather associated with hurricane Florence. CO will see more record heat today with highs in the mid 90's across eastern CO. No precip expected statewide through Sunday, and it will likely remain dry through much of next week as well which will create very high fire danger for most of CO. The next chance for precip appears to be next Thursday as some late season monsoon moisture associated with eastern Pacific tropical systems moves north into CO. Temps will remain above average through Wednesday of next week, then closer to average late next week into next weekend.

Now on to Florence. Florence is currently a category 4 hurricane 450 miles southeast of Wilmington NC with sustained winds to 125 mph and moving towards the northwest at 15 mph. Florence is expected to remain a category 4 hurricane overnight with some strengthening possible. There have been some changes in the ultimate track of Florence over the past 24 hours. Latest models and the NHC official track brings Florence close to the southern NC coast Thursday night into Friday morning just offshore from Wilmington. Then, instead of moving onshore, Florence is forecast to stop just offshore and then move slowly southward during the day on Friday towards the northern SC coast with Florence being near Myrtle Beach Saturday morning as a category 1 hurricane and continue down the SC coast into Sunday before finally turning inland Sunday night and meandering into GA on Monday. There is good news and bad news with this track, the good news is the storm surge will be reduced because the eye does come onshore immediately, but the bad news is the surf, rain, wind and flooding will be prolonged over a larger area of NC and SC/GA. This will be a very dangerous storm and have wide impacts for much of the mid Atlantic and Southeast U.S. Rainfall estimates of 20-40 inches along the NC and SC coast will create record flooding across much of NC and SC.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Florence
Post Posted: Sep 13, 2018 12:04 pm 
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Another dry and warm day across CO with more near record heat expected. Gusty southwest winds across much of western CO creating Red Flag fire conditions with Red Flag Warning in effect along and west of the Divide. Enough southwest winds to make it breezy in local foothill areas with fire danger very high. Conditions expected to remain warm and dry through the weekend statewide and for most of next week. Slight chance for some precip late next week.

Florence has weakened to a category 2 hurricane with maximum winds to 105 mph. Outer bands of the hurricane are beginning to bring heavy rain squalls to eastern North Carolina. Florence is expected to remain a category 2 hurricane as it moves close to the NC coast tonight into Friday morning, with the eye just offshore near Wilmington Friday morning. Florence is still expected to wander slowly south during the day on Friday along the NC coast towards the SC border and remain a category 1 hurricane through Friday evening. Latest track brings Florence inland near Myrtle Beach SC Friday night and has it moving inland across SC during the day on Saturday and into western SC by Sunday morning as a tropical storm. Even in this position, Florence will continue to create very heavy rainfall across portions of NC and SC bringing bands from the Atlantic onshore. Storm Surge will be near 6-9 feet across portions of coastal NC tonight into Friday morning, so coastal flooding will be a concern, and into inland rivers as ocean waters move upstream. Models still suggest 20-40 inches of rainfall for portions of eastern NC which will create extensive and life threatening flooding. Florence will finally move into western TN Sunday night into Monday and into the upper Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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