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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Mid September
Post Posted: Sep 2, 2018 4:46 pm 
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Pretty nice late summer day across most of CO. There is a weak upper level low circulation over the 4 Corners region today that will move slowly across CO on Labor Day. THis is causing an easterly flow aloft over most of CO today so any storms that do form will move from east to west, a bit unusual. Most activity will be over southwest CO this afternoon and will expand into south central CO this evening and tonight. Some activity will persist overnight but mostly remain south of US 50 with some showers up into the Palmer Divide area. Most local foothill areas will see little if any precip today. Temps running mostly a few degrees below average today.

For Labor Day, expect similar conditions from today with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mostly along and south of US 50, but some precip possible as far north as the I-70 corridor. Storm motion will return to a more normal direction from the southwest at 10-20 mph. Any precip in the foothills will be on the light side, as temps remain slightly below average.

For the week ahead, showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening over much of CO as temps remain on the cool side of average. Later in the week a drier northwest flow aloft returns over CO which should keep most areas dry as temps rise back towards average. The weekend looks to remain mostly dry as temps rise above average.

For next week, upper ridge builds over CO which will keep CO under a mostly dry northwest flow aloft. Models suggest little if any precip for most of CO while temps remain above average.

A tropical disturbance has formed just north of Cuba and it is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico early this week and will head towards the Louisiana coast later in the week.

We ended August with 1.50 inches of rain on Conifer Mountain, well below our average of 2.68 inches in August. The past 12 months we have had below average precipitation each month, ending the past 12 months with 14.29 inches of liquid precipitation, while our average for the past 12 months is 17.58 inches. Hopefully the impacts from our building El Nino will come soon, as our continued dry conditions have created high fire danger as we begin the Fall season.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid September
Post Posted: Sep 4, 2018 1:25 pm 
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Weak upper level cyclonic circulation will persist over the 4 Corners region today and move slowly eastward during the week. The impact will be for the system to create enough instability to combine with some late season monsoon moisture to fuel afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day from today through Friday. Majority of activity will be focused from the Divide westward over higher terrain, but foothill areas will see a good chance for precip as well this week.

Today, showers and thunderstorms developing along and west of the Divide, but upper flow is very weak so any storms that form will be very slow moving so localized flooding may be possible in heavier storms. Temps will remain on the cool side of average today through Friday. Foothill areas may see some precip overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, but amounts expected to be light. Precip chances remain each day Wednesday through Friday, and foothill areas could see up to 0.10 inches each day.

Upper level system finally moves east this weekend, and a drier and warmer pattern with a upper ridge over CA will persists this weekend with westerly flow aloft over CO. Temps will rise to or slightly above average Saturday through early next week, and precip chances remain low over all of CO this weekend into early next week.

For next week, upper ridge builds over CO which will raise temps well above average and keep precip chances very limited which will raise fire danger levels next week as ground fuels continue to dry out.

Tropical Storm Gordon is located in the Gulf of Mexico south of Pensacola and is moving towards the northwest. Gordon may briefly become a category 1 hurricane this evening before making landfall tonight somewhere between Mobile and New Orleans. Storm surges of 3-5 feet are expected on the east side of the eye and rainfall of 4-8 inches will create widespread flooding along the coast and inland.

Farther in the Atlantic, hurricane Florence is chugging along and moving towards the northwest. Florence is expected to move towards Bermuda this weekend, but should not be a threat to the U.S. as it re-curves next week and should remain in the Atlantic. there are two other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic that models suggest will move towards the northern Windward Islands by the end of next week, and one of these may become a threat for the U.S. as hurricane season reaches it's peak in September.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid September
Post Posted: Sep 5, 2018 12:58 pm 
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Cool lightning show last night as cold front backed into eastern CO, and even a bit of snow up high on Mt Evans and Rosalie. Foothills received from 0.10 to and inch of rain, while some spots along the Urban Corridor received up to 2 inches of rain. For today, showers and thunderstorms already present across much of western CO as weak upper level circulation combines with monsoon moisture to fuel storms. Activity should move into the foothills and Urban Corridor this afternoon and evening and persists through 8-10 pm. Storm motion today should be from teh south at 5-10 mph, thus with slower moving storms localized flooding will be possible in heavier storms. Models suggest most areas could see up to 0.25 inches of rain, and heavier amounts possible in heavier storms. Sadly, this will likely be the last decent precip for a while in our area. Temps will remain below average today.

Thursday will see isolated afternoon storms pop up, but coverage and intensity will be much less than past 2 days. Best chances will be across southwest CO, but a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the foothills. Temps Thursday will be a little warmer than Wednesday but remain below average.

Latest models now dry thing out starting Friday as upper level circulation moves east and upper ridge builds over CA creating a dry northwest flow aloft over CO Friday into Sunday. Slight chance of a few isolated showers Friday afternoon over higher terrain, then no precip expected statewide Saturday, then a few isolated showers possible Sunday afternoon over higher terrain. Temps will be near average Friday, then above average Saturday and Sunday.

For next week, models today dig a upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and upper ridge over Texas, which keeps CO under a dry southwest flow aloft all of next week. Temps will remain well above average and little if any precip expected statewide. This pattern is expected to persist through next weekend.

Gordon made landfall last night near the MS/AL border along the Gulf coast as a strong tropical storm. Gordon has been downgraded to a tropical depression and is spinning over west central MS. Gordon will slowly move into AR and then combine with a cold front and bring heavy rain to the Ohio Valley late this week and into the weekend. Farther in the Atlantic. Florence has become a category 3 hurricane and latest models now bring Florence dangerously close to the East Coast late next week as a major hurricane. Definitely a storm to keep an eye on if you have travel plans to the East Coast late next week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid September
Post Posted: Sep 6, 2018 12:40 pm 
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Nice round of precip yesterday with 0.55 inches at the homestead. Models suggest we could see another good round of storms again today as upper level disturbance makes it's way across the state today and combines with monsoon moisture from the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms already developing over the mountains and activity will move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor this afternoon and evening. Activity likely to persist through about 8-10 pm again. Models suggest another 0.15 to 0.40 inches of precip for most foothill areas, with some higher amounts possible. Storm motion will again be slow at 5-15 mph from the west, so localized flooding will be possible in heavier storms, and there is a chance for storm training and back building today which could focus heavy rain over localized areas. Snow level will again be close to 14,000 ft so some higher peaks may see another dusting. Temps will remain below average today.

Friday will be the beginning of a warmer and drier weather pattern for CO. As upper level disturbance moves east, upper ridge will build over CA and create a dry northwest flow aloft over CO through Sunday. Temps will be near average Friday and above average this weekend. Only a slight chance for precip across the state Friday through Sunday, with best chances over higher terrain along the Divide.

For next week, models build upper level ridge over TX with a deep upper trough over the Pacific Northwest which will keep a warm and dry southwest flow aloft over CO. Outside of a few isolated showers over higher terrain on Monday, little if any precip expected statewide through next weekend. With stronger southwest winds aloft, mountains and foothills could see some gusty southwest winds early in the week, which will raise fire danger. Extended range models keep upper ridge over CO the following week, which would keep CO dry and warm through Sep 23.

As the Atlantic tropical season begins to heat up, attention turns to hurricane Florence. Models keep Florence moving towards the west northwest into next week. This motion will bring Florence south of Bermuda early next week and then Florence will track towards the mid Atlantic coast of the U.S. late next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring Florence towards the U.S. East Coast somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey next Thursday, and then have it meander along the coast through next weekend, so Florence could cause significant damage and havoc across a very large population next week, and possibly beyond. To complicate things, remains of Gordon will move up the Ohio Valley and across the Northeast this weekend which may cause flooding in an already soggy area, so if Florence hits this same area, flooding could be epic.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid September
Post Posted: Sep 9, 2018 1:23 pm 
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Well, not much to say about our weather the next 7-10 days except enjoy the warm and dry early Fall weather. Upper ridge over CA will keep flow aloft from the northwest most of the week and little if any precip is expected over the entire state through the week. Towards the middle of the week upper level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest which will turn upper flow from the southwest Wednesday through Friday, and some gusty southwest winds will be possible over the mountains and foothills, which will raise fire danger.

Over the weekend, upper ridge builds over CO which will keep temps well above average and limit any precip chances. For next week, flow aloft become more westerly but conditions are expected to remain dry statewide, as fire danger continues to rise. Temps will lower back near average next week.

The more dynamic weather will be along the East Coast this week as hurricane Florence approaches. Florence is currently a category 1 hurricane but as Florence moves towards the northwest it will strengthen to a category 3 or 4 hurricane this week. Latest models bring Florence towards the NC/SC border area late Thursday as a category 3 or 4 hurricane. If this track and forecast persist expect evacuations will begin Monday or Tuesday for much of SC and NC. Expect travel impacts if you are headed to the East Coast this week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid September
Post Posted: Sep 10, 2018 1:47 pm 
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Not much to update for our local forecast, hot and dry this week with temps near record levels all week, and some gusty southwest winds this week as a lee side trough forms. Red Flag conditions are likely later this week as fire danger rises. Little if any precip expected through Sunday statewide. Conditions remain mostly dry next week but temps should lower back to near normal values after Tuesday with a slight chance for some precip on Wednesday. Longer range models keep conditions warm and dry through the end of September.

Florence is now a category 3 hurricane and is expected to continue strengthening to a category 4 hurricane by Tuesday. The Latest NHC track has Florence making landfall near Wilmington NC Thursday evening as a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds to 150 mph. Storm surge associated with Florence will be in the 10-15 foot range. This will create life threatening flooding along with devastating winds and rainfall. Once Florence makes landfall, it is the storm that keeps on giving, as Florence is expected to slowly move inland over western NC and into western VA over the weekend, with heavy rainfall continuing which will create massive flooding over much of the mid Atlantic region.

Models also bring a tropical disturbance currently over the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. System may or may not attain tropical storm strength but will bring very heavy rain to the Texas Gulf Coast Thursday into Saturday.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid September
Post Posted: Sep 11, 2018 2:59 pm 
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A few showers have developed over higher terrain today and may cause some gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, but little if any precip expected for most areas. Temps will be near record levels today through the weekend. Gusty southwest winds will increase Wednesday and Thursday which may prompt Red Flag Warning each day in the foothills and mountains. Otherwise not much change in the forecast through the weekend with warm and dry weather expected statewide. For next week, a weak cold front may drop south over eastern CO Monday evening/night and bring a chance for some showers on Tuesday, but other than that dry and warm conditions expected through next weekend as well.

Hurricane Florence has weakened to a category 3 hurricane today as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. Further strengthening is expected tonight into Thursday and back to a category 4 hurricane Wednesday into Thursday. Latest track brings Florence towards the NC coast Thursday night into Friday morning between Wilmington and Morehead City as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds to 120 mph. As the storm approaches the coast it will slow down and then move very slowly inland over the next 2 days. This will create a hurricane Harvey type situation along the NC coast and inland where 20-40 inches of rain may fall between Thursday and Sunday creating massive flooding. ECMWF has Florence moving south over SC and GA over the weekend while GFS has it remaining over NC and VA. Yet another tropical storm (Isaac) in the Atlantic will move over the Lesser Antilles on Thursday as a tropical storm and continue into the Caribbean. Farther east, hurricane Helene off the Cape Verde islands is forecast to re-curve northward into the eastern Atlantic and weaken into a tropical storm as it heads towards the Azores.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Olivia will move over the Hawaiian Islands on Wednesday as a tropical storm. Latest track takes Olivia over Maui with mostly heavy rain being the primary threat as 10-20 inches of rainfall will be possible.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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