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 Post subject: red flag warning
Post Posted: Aug 27, 2018 4:58 am 
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Dry conditions and hot temperatures can be expected this afternoon. Continued dry for Monday with gusty west wind regionwide. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect Monday afternoon for the mountains, foothills and northeast plains as very low relative humidity and wind gusts to 35 mph across the area. Turning cooler Monday evening with cool temperatures persisting into Tuesday.

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 Post subject: Re: red flag warning
Post Posted: Aug 27, 2018 5:56 am 
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Synopsis: A Red Flag Warning is in effect today as critical fire weather conditions likely this afternoon for the Colorado Front Range Foothills, High Mountain Parks, and Northeast Plains. Gusty winds bordering on strong will combine with very low relative humidity, a well mixed atmosphere, and above average temperatures to potentially create dangerous wildland fire behavior in the Front Range Foothills, mountain valleys, and Northeast plains of Colorado today. These critical weather Conditions will also further dry out the vegetation compounding the fire danger. Land managers and residents are urged to use extreme caution when handling fire outside today as a small fire could rapidly grow into a large, uncontrollable problem threatening life and property.

The long-term outlook through Friday: Cloudy, breezy and cooler on Tuesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over and along the Front Range. High temperatures on the plains Tuesday will be as much as 15 to 20 degrees below average. The cool down will not be as great in the high country. Dry and warmer conditions will return Wednesday and Thursday with a high pressure ridge building over the region. Little change is expected on Friday with temperatures remaining near to slightly above average.


Watches & Warnings


A Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones, 215, 216, 238, 239, 240, 241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 246, 248 and 249. Basically, the Front Range, the entire Denver Metro, and much of the northeastern plains.

* Timing...1100 TO 1800 MDT Monday.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, except up to 60 mph over the foothills.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Fires may start easily with the dry fuels and spread rapidly with anticipated gusty winds. These gusty and erratic winds may create unpredictable fire behavior.

Hazardous Weather Outlook for today and tonight: Strong westerly winds will continue over the mountains and adjacent plains early this morning, then spread over the plains by afternoon. Gusts up to 70 mph are possible over the mountains and foothills, while up to 45 mph are expected over the plains. This will lead to critical fire danger conditions today. Temperatures will remain very warm with again readings well in the 90s. Winds will slowly decrease this evening.

For Tuesday through Sunday: There will be a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly along and east of the Front Range with a cool and moist upslope flow and a passing jet stream. Storms are not expected to become severe, a one or two may produce brief heavy rainfall and possibly some small hail on the plains. Dry and much warmer conditions will return for Wednesday and beyond with high pressure building over the region.

Front Range Foothills Forecast
Today
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am. Sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with a west southwest wind 18 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 11 to 16 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 69. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.

Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 2am. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 45. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 77. West southwest wind around 7 mph becoming east southeast in the afternoon.

West Denver Metro Forecast

Today
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am. Sunny, with a high near 91. Windy, with a west southwest wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph.

Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Breezy, with a west wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 74. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.

Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 2am. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 53. North northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south southwest after midnight. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 83. West southwest wind around 7 mph becoming east southeast in the afternoon.

Fire Weather for the Western Metro Fire Districts below 6000 feet (Zone 239) –

Today...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%).

Max Temperature.....87-93.
24 hr trend......Little change.

Min Humidity........12-16%.
24 hr trend......Little change.

20-foot winds.......Breezy. West winds 17-27 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Haines Index........4 low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 30-40 mph.

Mixing height.......4500-5500 ft AGL until 1100, then 13000-14000 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....West 25-30 mph.

Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. excellent after 1200.

Tonight...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45%).

Min Temperature.....44-52.
24 hr trend......7-10 degrees cooler.

Max Humidity........74-84%.
24 hr trend......25-35% wetter.

20-foot winds.......North winds 9-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Haines Index........4 low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 25-35 mph.

Mixing height.......10500-11500 ft AGL until 2100, then 1500-2500 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....West 20-25 mph until 2100, then north 15-20 mph.

Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900. poor after 2100.

Tuesday...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%) until 1200, then mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 1300. chance of rain showers after 1600.

Max Temperature.....67-73.
24 hr trend......15-20 degrees cooler.

Min Humidity........35-45%.
24 hr trend......25-35% wetter.

20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 8-14 mph.

Haines Index........2 very low.

LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....West 35-45 mph.

Mixing height.......6000-7000 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....East 10-15 mph.

Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

Fire weather for the foothills fire districts above 6000 feet (zone 216) -

Monday...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.

Max Temperature.....77-87.
24 hr trend......Little change.

Min Humidity........14-18%.
24 hr trend......2-4% drier.

20-foot winds.......
Valleys / lower slopes...Windy. West winds 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Ridges / upper slopes....Breezy. West winds 18-28 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Haines Index........4 low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 20-30 mph.

Mixing height.......12000-13000 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....West 25-30 mph until 1500, then around 20 mph.

Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 0900. excellent after 1500.

Tonight...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.

Min Temperature.....41-51.
24 hr trend......7-10 degrees cooler.

Max Humidity........56-66%.
24 hr trend......4-7% wetter.

20-foot winds.......
Valleys / lower slopes...West winds 6-12 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening.
Ridges / upper slopes....West winds 7-13 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening.

Haines Index........4 low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....West 25-35 mph.

Mixing height.......9500-10500 ft AGL until 2100, then 2500-3500 ft
AGL.

Transport winds.....West 15-20 mph until 0100, then around 10 mph
until 0300, then north until 0400, then light.

Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900. poor after 0200.

TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 0900, then partly cloudy (40-50%) until 1500, then mostly cloudy (60-65%). Slight chance of thunderstorms after 1300. chance of rain showers after 1600.

Max Temperature.....65-75.
24 hr trend......10-15 degrees cooler.

Min Humidity........25-35%.
24 hr trend......15-20% wetter.

20-foot winds.......
Valleys / lower slopes...East winds 4-13 mph.
Ridges / upper slopes....South winds 4-13 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.

Haines Index........3 very low.

LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....West 20-30 mph.

Mixing height.......4000-5000 ft AGL until 1100, then 12000-13000 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....Light winds until 0800, then northwest 10-15 mph.

Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good until 1200, then excellent until 1700, then very good.
Fire weather terms and abbreviations
LAL – Lightning Activity Level:
LAL 1 - No thunderstorms
LAL 2 - Isolated thunderstorms. Light rain will occasionally reach the ground. Lightning is very infrequent, 1 to 5 cloud to ground strikes in a five minute period.
LAL 3 - Widely scattered thunderstorms. Light to moderate rain will reach the ground. Lightning is infrequent, 6 to 10 cloud to ground strikes in a 5 minute period.
LAL 4 - Scattered thunderstorms. Moderate rain is commonly produced Lightning is frequent, 11 to 15 cloud to ground strikes in a 5 minute period.
LAL 5 - Numerous thunderstorms. Rainfall is moderate to heavy. Lightning is frequent and intense, greater than 15 cloud to ground strikes in a 5 minute period.
LAL 6 - Dry lightning (same as LAL 3 but without rain). This type of lightning has the potential for extreme fire activity and is normally highlighted in fire weather forecasts with a Red Flag Warning.
Haines Index (HI) - Is a numerical value that indicates the potential for large wildfires to experience extreme fire behavior. The HI combines both the instability and dryness of the air by examining the lapse rate between two pressure levels in the atmosphere and the dryness of one of the pressure levels.
HI 2 or 3…..Very low
HI 4………..Low
HI 5………..Moderate
HI 6………..High
CWR – Chance of Wetting Rain. Measurable rain above 0.10 inches.

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 Post subject: Re: red flag warning
Post Posted: Aug 27, 2018 7:01 am 
Scanner Monitor
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Location: the outerbanks of Mooredale
BURN BAN. Park County will be in a burn ban until 6:00 tonight due to a Red flag Warning.

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