It is currently Jan 17, 2019 6:25 am 






Reply to topic  [ 4 posts ] 

Previous topic | Next topic 

  Print view

Offline 
 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Early September
Post Posted: Aug 23, 2018 12:59 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 2926
Location: Conifer Mountain
A mostly sunny and breezy day across the state today. As a upper level trough passes to our north, westerly winds aloft and at the surface will increase today, especially over higher terrain with wind speeds of 20-45 mph possible. Winds may remain gusty at higher elevations overnight, but should calm down at lower elevations. Temps today should be near seasonal averages. Only a slight chance for any afternoon convection, mostly along the Divide and across southwest CO.

For Friday through Sunday, temps should be near to slightly above average each day. Upper level ridge will build over the lower Mississippi Valley creating a southwest flow aloft over CO. This will allow for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to form over higher terrain and drift to the northeast each day. Saturday and Sunday look to have better precip chances than Friday. Precip will occur mostly along and west of I-25 with best chances over higher terrain of the mountains and foothills. Overall precip amounts expected to remain mostly light.

For next week, models bring another upper level trough to our north early next week, which should cool temps slightly and keep isolated precip chances over higher terrain. By mid to late next week models re-build upper level ridge over western TX which will keep CO mostly dry and warm under a southwest flow aloft. Not until next weekend do models bring much of any precip back into CO.

Overall, the North American Monsoon is in the waning stages, although dew points remain quite high across much of AZ. With our building El Nino conditions in the Pacific we should see a fair number of tropical systems move up along the western Mexico and Baja coast in September. In addition, there should be a positive phase of the MJO moving over western North America in September, which could combine to provide decent precipitation across much of CO, but we will have to wait and see if that actually happens. August will have below average precipitation, which will make the 12 consecutive month that we have had below average rainfall on Conifer Mountain. I don't have all the data, but would be surprised if that has happened before in recent history.

Hurricane Lane is currently south of the Hawaiian Islands and moving towards the north northwest. Lane is currently a category 4 hurricane but will weaken rapidly as it moves farther north. Lane is currently forecast to move north towards Oahu, then veer to the west. However, several numerical models move the storm over Maui. Either way much of Hawaii will receive copious amounts of rainfall, strong winds and damaging surf over the next 72 hours. I would expect many flights to and from Hawaii to be cancelled beginning Friday through Saturday or Sunday. Models suggest 20-40 inches of rainfall will be possible over the Big Island with 10-20 inches over other islands through Sunday. Waves of 15-35 feet will also erode shorelines along much of the southern and eastern facing shores.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early September
Post Posted: Aug 26, 2018 11:06 am 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 2926
Location: Conifer Mountain
Nice to be able to see more than 5 miles for a change today. Mostly sunny skies and some breezes today with a slight chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with best chances over higher terrain of the mountains and foothills. Temps should be near to slightly above average today.

For the week ahead, a upper level trough will move across the Northern Rockies Monday into Tuesday creating a strong westerly flow aloft over CO. Monday will be dry statewide with some gusty westerly winds that will increase fire danger as ground fuels are beginning to dry out. Temps will remain at to slightly above average with low RH values Monday. On Tuesday, upper level trough will pass to our north which will drag a cold front south across eastern CO which will cool temps below average, and increase low level moisture east of the Divide, so lower fire danger Tuesday. There will be a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, with best chances from the foothills eastward.

For the remainder of the week, upper level ridge will build back over southern NM which will keep a dry westerly flow aloft over CO. Temps should be back above average Wednesday through Friday and very slight chances for any precip across the state.

For the upcoming Labor Day weekend, models are not in good agreement. GFS brings another upper level trough over the northern Rockies with a dry and cooler westerly flow aloft, while the ECMWF keeps a upper level ridge over TX and brings some late season monsoon moisture up into CO. Will have to wait and see how models resolve this. In general the overall pattern is transitioning to a early Fall pattern, which is typical for this time of year. The storm track will become more active and begin to sag south into the northern portions of the U.S. This will bring an end to the North American Monsoon in early September, which is normal.

Southwest of Hawaii, Lane has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and is moving west away from the islands. Reports show 45 inches of rain fell on the big island of Hawaii, while other islands received lesser amounts, generally in the 5-20 inch range.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early September
Post Posted: Aug 27, 2018 1:41 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 2926
Location: Conifer Mountain
Warm and windy day across most of CO today. Strong westerly winds with gusts over 60 mph have been reported across much of CO today, which is very unusual for August. The wind is associated with a very intense upper trough over the northern Rockies that has brought 3-8 inches of snow to portions of MT and WY above 8000 ft today, and an associated 110 kt jetstream over northern CO. Winds will begin to subside this evening as an associated cold front will move south across eastern CO and winds will switch to a northerly direction which will usher in cooler temps and better low level moisture which will lower fire danger on Tuesday east of the Divide. Tuesday temps will be 5-15 degrees below average east of the Divide, and near average west of the Divide. Slight chance for isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, with best chances across northeast CO.

Wednesday through Friday has warm temps return as highs will be above average most areas, and very limited precip chances Wednesday and Thursday, slightly better chances Friday.

For the holiday weekend ahead, models beginning to come into better agreement with temps near average, and a slight chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. So all in all not a bad send off to summer. Mid to late next week models suggest another strong upper trough to move across the northern Rockies, which will bring cooler temps and breezy conditions back to CO with slight precip chances Wednesday into Friday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early September
Post Posted: Aug 30, 2018 1:34 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 2926
Location: Conifer Mountain
Another warm and mostly dry day across the state today. A few high based showers will be possible, but any precip would be on the light side, better chances of gust some gusty outflow winds. Temps will be shy or records, but well above average today. Today will be the warmest day of the week as temps will begin to lower as we head into the holiday weekend.

For Friday, temps remain above average and precip chances remain limited, with just a slight chance for isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Any precip should remain on the light side with best chances for any measurable precip over the higher terrain of mountain areas and higher foothills.

For the weekend, upper level trough will move over the western U.S. as upper ridge remains anchored over the eastern U.S. causing record heat. The upper trough will act to lower temps closer to average Saturday through Monday, and there will be better chances for precip across much of CO as upper trough creates instability that will combine with some late season monsoon moisture coming up from the southwest. Saturday appears to have the best precip chances, with good chances from the mountains into the plains as late morning storms develop over higher terrain and push off to the east at 10-20 mph. Precip amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 inches will be possible in foothill areas. Upper trough remains over the area on Sunday, so a similar pattern is expected Sunday with storms developing over higher terrain and moving east into the foothills and plains by afternoon into evening. Precip amounts should remain under 0.10 inches for most foothill areas Sunday.

For next week, pattern remains similar early in the week with a decent flow of monsoon moisture up into CO Monday and Tuesday, so expected scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with some measurable precip possible each day. Wednesday through Friday upper trough moves across the northern Rockies leaving CO under a mostly dry westerly flow aloft with only isolated precip possible mostly over higher terrain of the mountains. Temps should be near to slightly above average and this pattern is expected to persist into next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 4 posts ] 

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:

Who is online

In total there are 23 users online :: 2 registered, 0 hidden and 21 guests (based on users active over the past 60 minutes)
Most users ever online was 2823 on Mar 26, 2012 6:26 pm

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], yakbard and 21 guests





Powered by phpBB © 2000-2012 phpBB Group

This website copyright © 1994-2019 by
Pinecam.com is a member of the Platte Canyon Area Chamber of Commerce