Weather Outlook into mid July
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Author:  wxgeek [ Jul 8, 2018 2:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Weather Outlook into mid July

Ah, back from a nice trip with my wife's family to Lake of the Woods in Ontario Canada. Sadly conditions here in Colorado have not changed much.

Upper level ridge remains near the 4 Corners region today with a northerly flow aloft over CO. Isolated afternoon storms will form over higher terrain, but flow aloft will likely keep any precip over the mountains, so little if any precip expected in our foothills today as temps remain well above seasonal norms.

For the week ahead, sadly not much precip is expected through Friday. Monday through Wednesday will be mostly dry statewide as temps remain well above average as upper level ridge remains from the Great Basin east to the Central Plains. Late in the week the upper ridge splits with one center over the Great Basin and one over the mid Mississippi Valley. This may allow slightly better precip chances over CO Thursday into Saturday with the focus on higher terrain for afternoon and evening storms. Temps will remain above average during this period. BY Sunday, ECMWF suggest a nice plume of Monsoonal moisture will move up inot CO as upper ridge builds over the southern Plains, while GFS keep upper ridge over the Great Basin which keeps Monsoon moisture away from us. Hopefully the ECMWF is correct as the GFS does not bring monsoon moisture into CO until late the following week. Tucson today will have an average daily dew point above 54 deg F, and it will continue so that the official start of the North American Monsoon in the U.S. will be Tuesday July 10. When this moisture moves up into CO is still a bit uncertain. Hopefully by Sunday, but could be as late as the following week. It is about as dry as I have seen it over the past 12 years in early July around here.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jul 9, 2018 2:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into mid July

Yet another hot and dry day across our state with temps 5-10 degrees above average. Large upper ridge extends from NV eastward into the Mississippi Valley with a circulation center over NE, yielding easterly winds aloft and at the surface across CO, which is unusual for summer. The good news is all of our smoke is blowing westward for the next few days. Precip will be limited to southwest CO today. On Tuesday, temps should approach record levels in many areas. Easterly flow will remain in place and limit precip to areas along and west of the Divide. The big news Tuesday will be the official beginning of the North American Monsoon in Tucson as dew points will be in the low 60's across southern AZ and NM as moisture from Mexico begins it's annual trek northward. It is still somewhat in question when this moisture will make it's way into Colorado.

By Wednesday models suggest some monsoon moisture will work it's way into western CO as upper level ridge circulation center moves over MO. Best chances will remain along and west of the Divide, and easterly flow aloft and at the surface should keep all storms to our west instead of allowing them to move eastward. Temps will remain above average on Wednesday, but should cool a few degrees from Tuesday. It appears best chances for precip in our foothills will come Thursday and Friday, as a weak upper level trough will move to our north and allow monsoon moisture to push farther east into eastern CO each day, so decent chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Temps will cool to near average values each day with increased cloud cover and some cooling rain.

For the weekend, models build upper High center back over the Great Basin, which will act to suppress monsoon moisture as northerly flow aloft returns to CO. Precip chances will be limited to southwest and south central CO each day as temps rise back above average each day.

For next week, models diverge. GFS keep upper ridge over the Great Basin with a warm and dry westerly flow aloft over CO, while the ECMWF builds upper ridge to our east and allows monsoon moisture to move over most of CO early next week, with potentially heavy rain in some areas that persist through Wednesday. Later next week both models suggest drier and warmer conditions for most of CO with more isolated afternoon and evening storm chances.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jul 10, 2018 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into mid July

The news today is that the North American Monsoon has officially begun in the U.S. Plenty of moisture and precip has invaded AZ and NM, but upper level pattern is keeping most of this moisture south of CO and moving into southern CA. This will change later this week and allow some good precip into CO Thursday and Friday.

Hot and dry day across most of the state today as temps will be near the century mark in may areas and approach records. Broad upper ridge aloft remains the dominant feature across a large portion of the Central U.S. and ridge axis remains to our north providing easterly flow aloft over the state. Gusty southerly winds exists across eastern CO today. Precip today will be isolated and confined to areas along and west of the Divide, with amounts generally under 0.10 inches.

On Wednesday, temps will lower a few degrees but remain well above average. A little more precip is expected in CO as monsoon moisture tries to push northward, but majority will remain along and west of the Divide. A slight chance for some isolated storms in our foothills and the Palmer Divide Wednesday afternoon and evening, but any precip would remain light.

Some bigger changes Thursday and Friday as monsoon moisture will be able to move across all of CO as a weak upper level trough moves over the state. Temps will lower to near average values each day as more clouds and better precip chances occur. Models suggest 0.25 to 0.50 inches will be possible each day in local areas as slow moving thunderstorms may drop heavy rain on isolated areas. This will provide some much needed moisture to parched areas, but we will also see numerous lightning strikes that will need monitoring in areas that do not receive much rain. Precip could last into nighttime hours Thursday night into Friday morning.

For the weekend, temps rise and things dry out across the state on Saturday. Mostly dry conditions statewide as temps rise above average. Models now in better agreement that a cold front will drop south across eastern CO Sunday afternoon and bring better precip chances from the Divide east.

For next week, models agree that upper ridge will re-build over the Great Basin that will keep CO under a northwest flow aloft. This will likely keep temps at or above average next week, and keep precip on the more limited side, as monsoon moisture will remain suppressed to our south. Precip will be mostly isolated afternoon and evening storms that will develop over higher terrain and drift into the foothill and Urban Corridor, but precip amounts likely to remain on the lighter side.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jul 12, 2018 8:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into mid July

Monsoon moisture finally expected to move east of the Divide today, a very welcome event. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain this morning and move into the foothills and areas east this afternoon into this evening. Upper level flow is very weak, so storms that develop will move very slowly (less than 10 mph) from the northwest. This will leave the possibility of localized flooding in areas where storms sit. In general, models suggest 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain possible for most foothill areas, but some areas could get less, and some more depending on where storms develop and sit. Activity should get going shortly after noon and end by around 9 pm tonight, with activity persisting into overnight hours on the plains. Frequent lightning and small hail will be possible in heavier storms in our area. Temps today will be near average, so a welcome cool down from the recent heat.

Models now suggest Friday will be drier for most areas. Some monsoon moisture will remain in place which will provide isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon, but precip amounts look to remain less than 0.10 inches for most foothill areas. Best chances for heavier precip will be across the southwest and central mountains on Friday. Temps Friday again expected to be near average.

For the weekend, drier and warmer weather on tap for Saturday as only precip looks to be across southwest and south central CO. Temps will once again rise above average by 5-10 degrees most areas. On Sunday, a upper level trough will move to our north and allow better precip chances for much of the state. This will combine with a cold front moving down from the north in the afternoon, so temps will again be warm before cold front moves through late afternoon. Models suggest precip amounts of 0.10 to 0,25 inches will be possible in our foothills. Mountain areas and eastern plains could see heavier precip with activity lasting through about midnight.

For next week, models are in stark contrast. GFS keeps CO mostly dry and warm Monday through Friday, while the ECMWF keeps a plume of monsoon moisture across CO most of the week and temps near to slightly below average. Not sure what will actually happen, but certainly rooting for the wetter ECMWF solution to verify.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jul 13, 2018 1:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into mid July

After a mostly sunny start, typical summer clouds have formed over mountain and foothills areas. Atmosphere remains relatively moist and unstable today which will lead to a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Best precip chances will be across southwest and south central CO, but most areas west of the Urban Corridor may see isolated precip. Precip amounts will be light in the foothills, generally just a few hundreds of an inch expected today. Activity should dissipate shortly after sunset. Temps will be near average today.

Saturday promises to be warmer and drier for most areas as temps rise above average, and precip should be limited to southwest CO. Then a passing upper trough to our north on Sunday should increase precip chances for most of CO. Temps will warm to near average, then a cold front will lower temps in the afternoon and increase shower and thunderstorm chances, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across north central and northeast CO. Models suggest foothill areas could see 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain on Sunday, which would be very welcome.

For next week, models now in decent agreement that precip chances will persist Monday and Tuesday in our local area with temps remaining near average, then warmer and drier conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday as upper ridge builds back over CO. Better precip chances look to return next weekend as temps remain above average. Our typical monsoon pattern is not yet in place as the upper level ridge that determines the monsoon flow has been over the Great Basin. In order to produce a moist monsoon flow into CO we need the upper ridge to be centered over the Central to Southern Plains or the Lower Mississippi Valley. Models at this time do not suggest this will happen anytime soon, so our drier than average pattern will likely persist into late July. We may receive some rain, just not a whole lot until a better monsoon pattern is in place.

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