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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Late April
Post Posted: Apr 13, 2018 12:34 pm 
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Potent Spring system creating blizzard conditions across northeast CO today with many road closures, including I-70 from Limon to the KS border. Northerly winds of 30-60 mph buffeting much of CO today with strongest winds across northeast CO. Most precip will remain east of I-25 and north of I-70 today as system winds up over Nebraska and slowly moves east. Temps will remain below average statewide today.

Strong northerly winds will persist into Saturday morning, with strongest winds across northeast CO. Winds should begin to relax a bit Saturday afternoon as system moves farther east. Temps will remain on the cool side of average Saturday for most areas, with a blustery feel. For Sunday, mostly sunny with temps near seasonal norms and light winds.

For next week, dry and mild Monday with temps rising above average, and some gusty southwest winds in the afternoon. Upper level trough and associated cold front will move across CO Monday night into Tuesday morning with precip developing along and west of the Divide with snow level near 6000 ft. Mountains may see 2-5 inches of snow, but foothills should remain mostly dry, with perhaps a dusting Monday night. Temps will be on the cool side of average Tuesday with just a few lingering flurries in the mountains.

Wednesday and Thursday look dry and mild statewide, with temps above average. Things could change late next week, as models continue to suggest the potential for a significant Spring snowstorm for eastern CO. Models bring a closed upper low over the 4 Corners Friday morning and track it across southern CO into Saturday morning creating a classic upslope system that would bring copious snow to much of eastern CO including the foothills. Snow level would be 5000-6000 ft Friday lowering to 4000 ft Saturday. This far out, nothing is certain, as system could take a very different track, but it is certainly worth watching to see how models evolve things.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late April
Post Posted: Apr 15, 2018 3:25 pm 
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Pretty nice Spring day across the state today with temps near seasonal norms. Some mid and high clouds moving through, but not much precip except for a few isolated showers over the High County. Monday should also be dry statewide with temps above average. Southwest winds aloft will increase in the afternoon prompting some fire weather concerns over south central and southeast CO with a Red Flag Warning in place. Pacific system will move across CO on Tuesday. Associated cold front will move from west to east across CO during the day on Tuesday, moving through the foothills around Noon, so temps will lower in the afternoon as precip moves into the mountains mostly along and west of the Front Range crest with snow level near 6000 ft. Foothills and areas east will remain mostly dry, but westerly winds of 25-50 mph will be in place behind front, and should diminish Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday should be dry statewide with temps near to slightly above average.

Then on to our potentially big Spring storm. Models in decent agreement in bringing closed upper level low to near the 4 Corners Friday morning, then tracking the upper low across southern CO and into southeast CO/southwest KS by Saturday morning. This track would bring precip into much of CO Friday morning with snow level near 9000 ft. Precip would intensify during the day on Friday especially across eastern CO as snow level lowers to near 6000-7000 ft with good upslope flow in place. Precip would continue Friday night into Saturday morning as snow level lowers to 5000-6000 ft. Precip will move east during the day on Saturday, with some precip still over the eastern plains through Saturday afternoon as snow level remains 5000-6000 ft. If current forecast is on track, this would be a good snow event for the foothills, but mostly rain for the Urban Corridor and plains. Models output 1-2 inches of liquid equivalent over the foothills, so this would equate to 8-16 inches of wet, heavy Spring snow. I will keep my fingers crossed that models have this one correct, but a lot could happen between now and Friday.

For next week, GFS keeps CO dry and mild Sunday through Thursday, while ECMWF brings some precip into CO on Tuesday, then dry into Thursday. Some precip may be possible Friday into next weekend.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late April
Post Posted: Apr 22, 2018 12:15 pm 
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After some nice Spring moisture on Saturday, mostly sunny skies across the state today as temps warm back to seasonal norms most areas. A few isolated showers may develop along the Divide with snow level near 11,000 ft.

For the work week ahead, Monday will start out mostly sunny as temps warm above average. Isolated showers will develop over higher terrain Monday afternoon and evening with snow level near 12,000 ft. A cold front associated with a upper level trough to our north will move across CO Monday night into Tuesday morning. Precip will become possible for areas along and north of I-70 Monday night and precip will move south during the day on Tuesday. Snow level will lower to near 7000 ft Monday night and down to near 60000 ft during the day on Tuesday. Current models suggest from 0.10 to 0.5 inches of liquid equivalent from this system for the foothills, so areas above 7000 ft may see 1-4 inches of snow from midnight Monday through Tuesday afternoon. Best chances for precip look to be from 5 am Tuesday through 3 pm Tuesday. Mountains could see 3-7 inches of snow with heaviest amounts north of I-70. Precip should end by Tuesday evening. Temps will be below average on Tuesday.

Wednesday looks dry and mild statewide as temps rise back above average. Thursday is a toss-up right now, GFS keeps things dry and mild while ECMWF brings a new system down from the north with cool temps and some precip. Friday through the weekend will have temps above average statewide. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, mostly over higher terrain but foothills could see a few isolated showers. Snow level would remain above 12,000 ft.

For next week, models suggest dry and warm conditions early next week, then temps return to near average mid to late in the week with some precip possible mid week.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late April
Post Posted: Apr 23, 2018 12:20 pm 
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Mostly sunny and warm day for most of the state today as temps are running 5-10 degrees above average today. Isolated showers and even an occasional thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon and evening mostly over higher terrain, but a few showers could move into foothills areas. Snow level will be at or above 12,000 ft today. Some gusty westerly winds will be possible over higher terrain of the mountains and foothills through this evening. Upper level trough will move from the northern Rockies south into the central Rockies tonight into Tuesday. Associated cold front will move south into CO tonight into Tuesday morning and will spread precip south into CO overnight into Tuesday. Snow level will be near 10,000 ft at midnight lowering to near 8000 ft by Tuesday morning and will remain in the 7000-8000 ft level during the day on Tuesday. Heaviest precip will be over the mountains, but models suggest close to 0.25 inches will be possible in the foothills, so areas above 8000 ft could see 1-3 inches of snow tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Best precip chances in the foothills will be from 3 am through Noon on Tuesday, but flurries may linger into Tuesday evening in the foothills. Mountains could see 2-5 inches of snow above 8000 ft. With such warm temps today, currently looks like most main roads will remain just wet below 9000 ft, so currently don't expect big impacts to the commute on Tuesday. Temps will remain well below average on Tuesday.

Wednesday looks dry statewide with temps returning to near average values. On Thursday, a weak system will slide down from the northwest across CO, but not much precip is expected with this system. Best precip chances will be over the northern and central mountains. Foothills may see a brief shower Thursday afternoon, but that's about it. Temps will be near to slightly below average Thursday and snow level should be near 9000 - 10,000 ft.

By Friday upper level ridge builds over CO so expect temps to be above average and any precip should be confined to the southwest mountains. for the weekend, expect temps to remain above average as southwest flow aloft remains over the state. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, mostly over higher terrain of the mountains as snow level will remain above 12,000 ft each day. There could be some gusty southwest winds over higher terrain each day as well.

For next week, Monday looks to remain warm and mostly dry statewide. On Tuesday, a weak upper level trough is forecast to move over CO which could increase precip chances for much of the state, as snow level should remain near 10,000 ft. Temps will be below average for most areas Tuesday. Models suggest better chances for precip Wednesday through Friday next week as upper level trough moves over CO. This should also keep temps at or below average. Next weekend should then be mostly dry with near average temps.

Looking at the Climate Prediction Center, the current La Nina is waning, and conditions have transitioned to ENSO Neutral in the eastern Pacific the past month. This trend is expected to continue through Spring and into Summer with ENSO Neutral conditions. Models then suggest that by Fall, conditions will either remain Neutral or they could warm into weak El Nino conditions. Too early to tell how certain this is, so will need to see how things progress over the summer. For Spring precip and the coming Monsoon season, this transition usually is associated with a relatively dry Spring, and then average precip once the Monsoon begins in June. Thus we will need to hope for some additional Spring moisture to limit our fire season danger. We are currently on pace for record low snowfall, which generally does not bode well for our fire season.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late April
Post Posted: Apr 24, 2018 12:02 pm 
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Pretty gloomy Spring day across eastern CO today. Frontal precip came through late last night into this morning and has exited, but a second surge of energy will bring renewed precip to the foothills this afternoon and evening as good upslope flow remains in place as upper level energy moves south over the area. Models suggest an additional 1/2 to 2 inches of snow will be possible above 7000 ft today. Temps have warmed above freezing below 8000 ft, so expect most roads to remain just wet, but secondary roads may accumulate some slush through this evening above 8000 ft. Fog will also create reduced visibility in the foothills through this evening. Conditions should clear overnight, but some residual fog may be present in the foothills and eastern plains through Wednesday morning.

Wednesday should be mostly sunny statewide with temps near average. System on Thursday should remain mostly north and east of CO, so little if any precip now expected. Temps may be a tad cooler, but still close to average.

The period Friday through Sunday will feature temps well above average statewide. Friday looks mostly dry, then Saturday and Sunday will have better precip chances with afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. Best precip chances will be over higher terrain in the mountains, but some showers may drift east into the foothills and adjacent plains each day. Snow level will remain above 12,000 ft each day, but small hail and graupel may accompany stronger showers/thunderstorms.

For next week, models agree Monday will be dry and warm. Beyond that there is not much agreement. GFS brings an upper level trough over CO Tuesday into Wednesday with decent precip chances and snow down to 8000-9000 ft and then dries and warms things Thursday into Friday. ECMWF meanwhile develops a cutoff low over Baja early next week which keeps CO dry and mild through Wednesday, then brings upper level trough from the northwest over CO late next week with precip and cooler temps possible.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late April
Post Posted: Apr 25, 2018 11:56 am 
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After a cold and snowy day yesterday, mostly sunny day today with temps remaining a few degrees below average for most areas.

A system currently over the northern Rockies will skirt CO tonight into Thursday morning. This will be a mostly dry system as a cold front will move south across eastern CO after midnight tonight. Main impact will be cooler temps and strong northerly winds behind front. A few showers will be possible between 6 am and Noon on Thursday, with best chances north of I-70, but foothills south of I-70 could see a brief shower with snow level down to neat 6000 ft Thursday morning. Not much more than a dusting of snow expected, so do not anticipate any road issues Thursday. Northerly winds will increase during the day, with strongest winds across the eastern plains with speeds of 20-45 mph. Winds should subside Thursday evening.

Friday into Sunday will feature much warmer weather as temps rise well above average. Friday should remain dry statewide with temps 10 degrees above average. Saturday will see temps rise 10-15 degrees above average, but models suggest fairly widespread convective activity will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, with best chances over higher terrain of the mountains and foothills. Snow level will remain above 12,000 ft so a more summer type pattern with isolated thunderstorms and some small hail possible in heavier storms. Storm motion will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph. Some stronger storms may drift into the Urban Corridor and plains later Saturday afternoon and evening. On Sunday, temps will again be 10-15 degrees above average, but models suggest lower precip chances as southwest flow aloft increases and dries out the atmosphere some. Issue Sunday will be increased fire danger as southwest winds of 20-45 mph kick up, so areas without snow will have increased fire danger. Some isolated showers may still pop up, but coverage and intensity should be less than Saturday as snow level remains above 12,000 ft.

As we move into next week, models still not in very good agreement. They agree an upper level trough will move from the Great Basin across CO, but timing is different. GFS brings upper trough over CO Tuesday into Wednesday with precip and cooler temps and snow down to about 8000 ft. The ECMWF brings this feature across CO Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with precip and cooler temps with snow also down to 7000-8000 ft. So expect some additional precip towards the middle of next week. Friday into next weekend upper ridge is forecast to move over CO with much warmer temps and isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Models suggest May will transition to our more typical summer pattern, and mostly be done with snow and cold temps. If this is correct, this could be our lowest snowfall season on record (since 1993) on Conifer Mountain, as we current stand at 88 inches of snow for the season, and the current record is 99.25 inches in 2005/2006. Fortunately that season did not have any significant fires in our area as there was an early and robust monsooon rainy season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late April
Post Posted: Apr 26, 2018 12:56 pm 
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Mostly cloudy, cool and breezy day across eastern CO, while mostly sunny and mild west of the Front Range Crest today. Cold front that dragged south across eastern CO this morning brought some light precip and clouds into the foothills and Palmer Divide. Clouds and precip should dissipate this afternoon, but northerly winds of 30-60 mph will be howling along and east of I-25 through this evening.

Much nicer weather in store Friday through Sunday. Temps will be 5-15 degrees above average statewide with mostly sunny skies on Friday. Saturday will see an increase in clouds in the afternoon with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the mountains and then drifting into the foothills and adjacent plains. Snow level will be near 14,000 ft, so precip will rain for most, with some small hail in heavier thunderstorms. Because we are getting into thunderstorm season, lightning will pose a significant fire risk this season until we get more moisture. Precip should quickly dissipate after sunset Saturday. Sunday will be as warm as Saturday, but southwest winds will pick up at 15-35 mph which will increase fire danger. Models agree Sunday will be drier, so only a few isolated showers possible, with better chances across the eastern plains Sunday afternoon.

Models are beginning to come into better alignment for next week. Upper level trough will be over the Great Basin on Monday, and this will increase precip chances across much of CO Monday afternoon with snow level near 11,000 ft. Best precip chances will be along and west of the Divide, but foothill areas may see some light precip. On Tuesday a new upper level trough will develop over the Great Basin and move slowly over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday and across CO on Thursday. The details of this still remain a little uncertain, but in general models suggest good rpecip chances across much of CO from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. Heaviest precip looks to be from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Snow level will remain pretty high Tuesday above 10,000 ft, then begin to lower down to 8000 ft on Wednesday and down close to 6000 ft Thursday. So foothill areas could see some decent Spring snow Wednesday into Thursday next week. Temps expected to be well below average Wednesday and Thursday next week.

Conditions improve just in time for the weekend, with mostly sunny skies on Friday, but temps will likely remain on the cool side of average. Next weekend looks to remain mostly dry and temps should be back to near seasonal norms. Models suggest more precip may be possible early the following week, which is good news for fire danger.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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