Weather Outlook into Mid April
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Author:  wxgeek [ Apr 5, 2018 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Weather Outlook into Mid April

Dry and mild day across most of the state today with temps running on the high side of average. Clouds will increase late today, especially across western CO and lead to a chance for precip tonight from the Divide west with snow level 9000-10,000 ft. Precip will increase in the mountains Friday morning with snow level lowering to near 8000 ft and a cold front will back into eastern CO from the Great Plains Friday morning as well, so highest temps across eastern Co will be early Friday morning, with temps dropping through the day, thus temps will be well below average statewide on Friday. Precip will be possible across much of eastern CO Friday from about Noon through 6 pm with snow level 5000-6000 ft, but precip amounts should remain light, generally a trace to 2 inches including in our foothills. Upslope flow will create foggy conditions in the foothills with some ice fog, so roads may become slick Friday afternoon and evening. Precip will persists in the mountains through Friday evening, with 5-10 inches possible above 8000 ft.

Saturday will start out cool with temps warming to near average values by Afternoon. Some lingering flurries in the mountains Saturday morning, then clouds in advance of the next Pacific system will increase Saturday afternoon leading to precip chances along and west of the Divide Saturday afternoon and evening, but snow level will remain quite high around 11,000 ft. Precip will persist overnight into Sunday morning along and west of the Divide as snow level lowers to near 8000 ft. Some precip may move into eastern CO, but remain mostly along and north of I-70, although local foothills may see a dusting to an inch or so of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning above 8000 ft. Conditions should rapidly clear Sunday morning with mostly sunny skies by afternoon statewide, outside of a few isolated showers, and temps should be near average. Mountains could see some decent precip, with another 4-10 inches of snow above 8000 to 10,000 ft. A weak system may bring some light precip Sunday night into Monday morning for much of CO with snow level near 6000 ft. Currently only light precip is expected, so not much beyond a dusting to an inch in the foothills expected, maybe 1-3 inches in the mountains. Remainder of Monday should be dry with temps near average.

For next week, Tuesday through Thursday look dry statewide, and temps should be well above average each day. Thursday night into Friday a strong Spring system will move across CO bringing good precip chances for the mountains. At current time the main energy with this system moves to our north, so limited precip across eastern CO, but if this system tracks farther south, could be a different story.

Next weekend currently looks dry statewide, with temps near seasonal norms. Outside of the system next week, no significant looking Spring storms on the horizon.

Author:  wxgeek [ Apr 6, 2018 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Mid April

Two distinct weather regimes across the state today. Pacific air from the Divide west with rain at lower elevations and snow above 9000-10,000 ft, while much colder air from the Great Plains have moved across eastern CO with light snow and temps in the 20's, while Grand Junction is in the 60's. Light snow and fog will persists from the foothills east today into this evening, then begin to clear overnight. Amounts still look to remain on the light side, generally under 2 inches, with some areas maybe up to 3 inches. With warm temps earlier this week roads remaining mostly wet, but that may change later this afternoon and evening with some ice and slush likely to build up on roads. Mountains looking at 4-10 inches above 9000 ft.

Saturday looks mostly dry statewide as temps return to near average values. Moisture from Pacific Atmospheric River event will begin to move into western CO Saturday evening and night with snow level near 12,000 ft. Precip will move east into the foothills and points Saturday night into Sunday morning as snow level lowers to 9000-10,000 ft, so for most foothills areas this precip will be mostly rain. Most precip will end statewide by Noon on Sunday, as temps remain near seasonal norms with mild Pacific air in place.

For next week, weak secondary system moves over CO Sunday night into Monday morning, with some light precip expected with snow level near 6000 ft, so foothills areas could see a dusting to an inch of snow with this, and create some slick conditions for the Monday morning drive. Temps will be on the cool side of average Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday will be dry and warm statewide as temps rise well above average. System for next week looks impressive, but models keep the majority of energy to our west and north, so mountains may see a good dose of precip, but areas east of the Divide likely to see very little precip. Lots of southerly winds ahead of system on Thursday, then strong northerly winds as system passes on Friday. Snow levels should lower down to 6000 ft or lower, so travel impacts likely across the mountains Thursday night into Friday morning. Temps will be below average on Friday.

Next weekend currently looks pretty nice, dry statewide with temps near average Saturday, then above average Sunday.

Following week looks dry early, then some precip chances mid to late in the week.

Author:  wxgeek [ Apr 8, 2018 2:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Mid April

After some overnight rain in the foothills, breezy day today with temps near average. Lingering flurries in the mountains will mostly come to an end this afternoon. Northwest winds of 15-35 mph will keep things feeling blustery today. Another system embedded in brisk northwest flow aloft will bring renewed precip to the mountains and areas east from midnight through about Noon on Monday. Snow level will be near 6000 ft with 1-4 inches possible in the mountains, and only a dusting to an inch or so expected in the foothills. Roads may have some snow or slush above 6000 ft for the morning drive, but should not be too bad. Temps on Monday should be below average with breezy northwest winds creating another blustery feeling day.

Tuesday through Wednesday should be dry and warm statewide as upper ridge moves over CO. Temps will be well above average each day. By Thursday, a Pacific system will move into the Great Basin then skirt to our north Friday. Thursday will start out nice and temps will again be above average, but southwest winds will pick up Thursday afternoon with some precip moving into western CO with snow level above 10,000 ft. Strong cold front will move across CO Thursday night bringing much cooler temps on Friday as precip continues in the mountains. Only a slight chance for any precip in the foothills, maybe a dusting at best Friday morning. Breezy and cool the remainder of Friday.

The weekend ahead is looking nice with dry weather expected statewide. Temps close to average Saturday then above average Sunday.

Next week is looking to remain mostly dry Monday through Thursday as temps remain above average. Fire concerns will continue to rise with limited moisture in April and snow is mostly absent with grasses yet to green up. Next chance for precip will be Friday into Saturday, then Sunday looks dry.

Author:  wxgeek [ Apr 10, 2018 2:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Mid April

Dry and warm day across the state as temps are running 5-15 degrees above average today. As upper ridge moves over CO Wednesday, temps will rise even more and approach record levels. In addition, gusty westerly winds and low RH values has prompted the NWS to issue a Red Flag Warning for nearly all of eastern CO from the foothills to the KS border for Wednesday. Thursday will be as warm as Wednesday, and southwest winds will be even stronger, so expect Red Flag Conditions to persist and fire weather concerns even greater on Thursday. Sadly, this is likely the start of a long and harsh fire season for much of CO.

On Thursday upper level trough from the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and strengthen southwest winds ahead of this system over CO. Some showers may move into western CO west of Vail Pass Thursday afternoon with snow level near 10,000 ft. Surface low is expected to remain over northern CO, thus winds will remain westerly and precip will be mostly limited to areas along and west of the Divide from this system. However, latest models have shifted the upper trough a little farther south, so precip may move into much of eastern CO during the day on Friday. Associated cold front will move across CO Thursday night and lower snow levels down to 4000 ft on Friday, so foothills and plains could see a dusting to an inch or two of snow on Friday. Mountain areas could see 2-6 inches of new snow. Northerly winds will also be quite gusty on Friday creating a very blustery Spring day. Most precip should exist the state by Friday evening with a few lingering flurries through midnight. Temps will be well below average on Friday.

Weekend weather is looking nice. Saturday looks dry as temps struggle to return to average. Sunday will also be mostly sunny and temps should be back to or slightly above average.

For next week, Monday looks dry and warm. System skirts to our north Monday night into Tuesday, so cooler temps on Tuesday and a chance for some precip along and west of the Divide Monday night into Tuesday afternoon with snow level near 8000 ft.

Wednesday looks dry and mild. Late next week GFS brings a upper level trough oevr CO while ECMWF keeps upper level ridge over CO, so GFS brings precip Thursday into Friday while ECMWF keeps CO dry and mild late next week. Given our season so far, ECMWF probably has it right.

Speaking of our snow season, Conifer Mountain has only recorded 74.5 inches so far this season, which is the driest season on record up to this date since 1993. Last year was nearly as dry but we got 46 inches of snow in April to help reduce fire danger. So far this April there has been 0.5 inches, with not a lot more in the medium range forecast, so it is looking like this Spring could be a very bad fire season. Hopefully May brings some additional moisture, but if not all residents should be well prepared for what we all fear. High to extreme fire danger could persist across much of CO until the North American Monsoon begins, which likely will not be until late June or early July.

Author:  wxgeek [ Apr 11, 2018 12:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Mid April

Red Flag Warning is in effect today through 7 pm this evening for all of eastern CO, including foothill areas up to 9000 ft. Temps will be nearly 20 degrees above average today near record levels, and westerly winds of 25-50 mph with higher gusts will buffet areas from the mountains east to the plains along with RH values below 10%. Basically the definition of critical or extreme fire weather conditions. Upper level trough moving onto the West Coast today will move into the Great Basin on Thursday. This will keep warm and windy conditions over CO on Thursday as well. Temps may be a few degrees cooler on Thursday, but still way above average. In addition, southwest winds of 30-60 mph will persist over much of CO Thursday creating another extreme fire weather day, so expect Red Flag Warnings to be in effect most of Thursday as well. Upper level trough will move over CO on Friday with associated cold front moving through CO from west to east Thursday afternoon through evening, thus winds will shift to northwesterly Thursday evening and then northerly by Friday morning as temps cool drastically. Showers will move into western CO Thursday afternoon and evening with snow level near 10,000 ft. As cold front progresses, snow level will lower accordingly and precip will intensify along and west of the Divide Thursday night into Friday morning with snow level 4000-5000 ft by Friday morning. Latest models suggest good chances for precip will occur from the foothills into the plains during the day on Friday, from 6 am through 6 pm. Amounts are expected to remain light, with a trace to 2 inches for most areas, but northerly winds of 25-50 mph will accompany snow on Friday making for blustery conditions. Mountains look to pick up 4-10 inches of snow from Thursday evening through Friday evening. Temps will remain well below average on Friday statewide. Precip should mostly exit the state by midnight on Friday night. Areas of the northern Plains and Midwest will see blizzard conditions Friday into Saturday, and severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be possible across much of the South on Saturday.

Weekend weather for CO will be mostly dry, but cool and windy conditions will persist on Saturday, especially across eastern CO with northerly winds of 20-45 mph expected. Temps will remain below seasonal norms on Saturday. Sunday will be nicer, with temps near average and light winds.

For next week, another warm and windy day expected on Monday with temps well above average and southwest winds of 20-45 mph by afternoon, so expect more Red Flag Warnings across CO on Monday. Upper level trough will skirt to the north of CO Monday night into Tuesday morning, with an associated cold front moving across CO Monday night. Some light precip will be possible in the mountains Monday night into Tuesday afternoon with snow level near 6000 ft. Otherwise, cooler temps statewide on Tuesday along with gusty westerly winds.

Upper level ridge builds over CO Wednesday into Thursday next week creating temps above average and dry conditions, which also means high fire danger. Models suggest a vigorous upper level trough will move over CO next Friday, creating cooler temps along with precip chances for much of the state with snow level near 6000 ft.

Next weekend currently looks dry with mild temps.

Author:  wxgeek [ Apr 12, 2018 1:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Mid April

There is nothing like Spring to bring our the dynamic nature of our atmosphere. Very colorful NWS highlight map over CO today, with a Winter Weather Advisory across the mountains, a Red Flag Warning in the foothills, High Wind Warning on the plains, and a Blizzard Warning across far eastern CO. Potent Spring system currently in the Great Basin will move across CO tonight into Friday. Ahead of the system, gusty southwest winds of 30-60 mph buffeting much of CO creating extreme fire danger. Temps well above average but will likely remain just shy of record temps. As cold front moves into western CO late this afternoon, some showers will develop along front with snow level near 12,000 ft. Cold front will move through foothills between 6 pm and 9 pm this evening, little if any precip expected outside of a few isolated showers, but dramatic change in temps and wind direction expected. Winds will become northwesterly behind front and increase in intensity, while temps will dramatically lower with snow level down to 8000 ft by midnight and 4000 ft by Friday morning. Precip will intensify along and west of the Divide this evening through about midnight, then diminish into Friday morning. As system winds up as it moves east of CO on Friday, very strong northerly winds of 25-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph will occur from the Divide east with strongest winds across the eastern plains of CO. This area will also see wrap around snow from system with blizzard conditions for much of Friday that will impact travel from northeast CO into Nebraska and South Dakota. Precip will increase in the mountains during the day on Friday, and coupled with strong northerly winds will make travel difficult. In our foothills, wind will be the biggest impact. Only a trace to an inch or so of snow currently expected. Mountains will see 4-10 inches of snow, while northeast plains will see 3-6 inches.

By Saturday, most precip will have moved east of CO outside of a few lingering flurries in the mountains and across the northeast plains. Northerly winds will remain strong through about Noon on Saturday, then begin to diminish. Temps will remain below average, so another blustery Spring day. Temps return to average on Sunday with only light winds, so a pretty nice day on tap for the weekend.

For next week, models remain consistent in bringing a system to our north late Monday into Tuesday, then a potentially significant Spring snow event for eastern CO Friday into Saturday. This is a fairly new development from the models, so will need to see how future model runs handle this system, but I will remain hopeful that this could be our long awaited big dump for the season. Otherwise, Monday will be warm and dry statewide with southwest winds increasing in the afternoon to elevate fire danger. Cold front moves across the state Monday night creating much cooler temps on Tuesday, with some light precip along and west of the Divide with snow level near 6000 ft, but little if any precip in the foothills expected. Strong westerly winds on Tuesday. Mild and dry Wednesday into Thursday, then potential for snow Friday into Saturday.

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