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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Early April
Post Posted: Mar 27, 2018 1:32 pm 
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Nice Spring snow last night with 6-12 inches reported in the foothills, and 3-7 inches along the Urban Corridor. Mostly clearing skies this afternoon, with a few isolated showers possible over higher terrain and mostly south of the Palmer Divide. Temps will be below average today.

Quick break Wednesday morning, then a fast moving system will move down from the northwest and bring showers to the northern and central mountains by early Wednesday afternoon with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will spread into the foothills and eastern CO by late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as snow level lowers to near 4000 ft. Precip will persist through about midnight, then begin to diminish into Thursday morning. Snow amounts should remain mostly light, with 2-6 inches in the mountains, and a dusting to 2 inches in the foothills and Urban Corridor. Roads may become slick Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, especially above 6000 ft. Clearing conditions will prevail later in the day on Thursday as temps will remain below average Wednesday and Thursday for most areas.

Mostly dry and warmer weather is on tap for Friday into Saturday, as temps should rebound to near seasonal norms each day. Clouds will increase by late in the day on Saturday with some showers developing over the northern and central mountains with snow level near 8000 ft. Precip will expand into eastern CO Saturday night into Sunday morning as snow level lowers to near 4000 ft. Expecting mostly light accumulations from this system, with 2-6 inches possible in the mountains, and a dusting to 2 inches in the foothills and Urban Corridor. So for Eastern Sunday, snow should taper off by about Noon, with clearing skies Sunday afternoon but temps will remain well below average with high temps in the low to mid 30's in the foothills.

For the first week of April, mostly dry and mild to start the week, as temps should be above average Monday through Wednesday. Precip will become possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning with snow level around 10,000 ft Wednesday afternoon, lowering to 7000-8000 ft overnight into Thursday morning. Some showers still possible Thursday afternoon as temps should be near average.

Friday looks dry and mild, then potential for more precip next weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early April
Post Posted: Mar 28, 2018 8:45 am 
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Precip is moving into CO sooner than previously expected, and latest models have slightly higher precip amounts. Precip is already moving into northeast CO, and will soon move into the northern and central mountains and then into foothill areas by late morning into early afternoon. Snow level initially around 6000 ft will lower to 4000-5000 ft this evening. Heaviest precip now looks to be from around Noon through 8 pm this evening, then will taper off through midnight, then clearing overnight. Snow amounts look like 3-7 inches in mountain areas, 1-3 inches in the foothills, and a trace to 2 inches along the Urban Corridor, but some areas over the northeast plains could see 2-4 inches. Flow aloft will be from the northwest, so foothills don't always do too well under this flow regime, but Palmer Divide and plains can do better. Roads may become slick by about 3 pm this afternoon above 6000 ft, so return commute may have slush and snow/ice on roads today, so plan accordingly.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early April
Post Posted: Mar 29, 2018 1:57 pm 
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Isolated showers popping up this afternoon as atmosphere has enough moisture and instability as snow level is near 6000 ft. Most showers will be along and north of I-70 where best dynamics associated with jetstream aloft are, and these showers should only produce light precip amounts. Most activity should dissipate shortly after sunset. Temps should be near to slightly below average today.

Friday should be dry statewide and temps should rise slightly above average. For the weekend, Saturday should start out nice, then clouds will increase late in the day and showers will develop across northern CO from the mountains to the northeast plains Saturday afternoon with snow level near 8000 ft. Some showers may persist overnight into Sunday morning, but remain mostly north of I-70 as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft by Sunday morning. The remainder of Eastern Sunday is now looking quite nice, should be mostly sunny with temps near average.

For next week, Monday start out mostly sunny with temps well above average. By late in the day some showers may develop over higher terrain with snow level near 10,000 ft. A cold front moves south over CO Monday evening so some showers may develop along front as snow level lowers to about 6000 ft overnight. Best precip chances overnight will be along and west of the Divide, but western foothill areas may see a dusting of snow into Tuesday morning. Temps will stay below average Tuesday in wake of cold front.

Wednesday and Thursday look mostly dry as temps warm above average each day. There will be a chance for some isolated showers Thursday Afternoon with snow level near 12,000 ft. By Friday, moisture from the Pacific begins to move into CO with precip chances by Friday afternoon with snow level near 10,000 ft. Temps will remain above average on Friday.

For next weekend, there appears to be good precip chances. Still too early to tell how much and how cold, but it currently looks like wet and warm Saturday, then cooler and wet on Sunday, so decent snow chances Sunday in the foothills and mountains.

Despite our recent snow, we are still well below average for March. Conifer Mountain snowfall for March stands at 15.0 inches, while our average for March is close to 30 inches. Our seasonal snowfall is now 74 inches, while our average through the end of March is 117 inches, so we are at 62% of average snowfall. April remains our snowiest month of the year on average where we average 40 inches of snow, so hopefully that remains the case this year. Our latest snow has reduced fire danger temporarily, but Spring snow melts fast so we need continued moisture to help keep fire danger low.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early April
Post Posted: Mar 30, 2018 1:17 pm 
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Mostly sunny day across the state with temps near to slightly above average. Some gusty westerly winds at higher elevations of the mountains and foothills today with speeds of 20-45 mph. Winds not as strong and southerly across eastern CO.

For the weekend, Saturday will start out nice under mostly sunny skies, but a system will move to our north over the weekend and affect weather a bit. A cold front will back into eastern CO from the Northern Plains during the day on Saturday which will create gusty easterly winds along and east of I-25, which will keep temps near average across eastern CO. Disturbance aloft will bring showers to northern CO Saturday afternoon with snow level near 8000 ft. Best precip chances will be along the CO/WY border Saturday afternoon, then precip will extend into the northern and central mountains Saturday night into Sunday morning as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Only a slight chance for precip in our local foothills, so nothing beyond a light dusting expected at this time. Skies should generally clear during the day on Sunday outside of a few lingering mountain flurries through about Noon. Temps should rise to near normal values on Sunday for most areas, so all in all not a bad Easter Sunday across Colorado.

For next week, models keep Monday dry with temps rising well above average. Latest models bring a stronger system into CO Monday night into Tuesday now, with precip developing along and west of the Divide Monday night then moving into eastern CO Tuesday morning with precip diminishing late Tuesday morning, and clearing by Tuesday afternoon. Snow level looks to be near 6000 ft for this event, so snow in the mountains and foothills, rain across eastern CO. ECMWF is much wetter with this system, so mountains could see 3-8 inches of snow, while foothills could see anywhere from an inch or two up to 6 inches if ECMWF is correct. Temps Tuesday will remain below average.

Wednesday looks dry statewide with near average temps. A weak system to our north may bring some showers mostly along and north of I-70 Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, but snow level will be near 10,000 ft Thursday lowering to near 8000 ft by Friday morning. Precip amounts should remain mostly light with this system. A few showers over higher terrain will be possible Friday afternoon with snow level near 10,000 ft.

For next weekend, GFS bring precip into western CO on Saturday and spreads across eastern CO Saturday night into Sunday morning, while the ECMWF builds a ridge over CO and keeps CO dry and warm Saturday into Sunday, with only a few isolated showers over higher terrain Sunday afternoon. Will have to wait and see how this unfolds with models next week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early April
Post Posted: Apr 2, 2018 3:43 pm 
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Warm and windy day across the state today with high to extreme fire danger across much of south central and southeast CO. Temps well above average, and westerly winds of 25-50 mph with higher gusts buffeting the mountains and foothills, as well as eastern plains today. A cold front associated with a weak upper level trough will move across CO this evening and tonight. Isolated showers beginning to develop with snow level near 10,000 ft. As cold front pushed east across state this evening into midnight, showers will become possible along front but best chances will remain along and west of Front Range Crest. Temps will lower as front passes, with snow level down to 4000 ft by Tuesday morning. Mountains may see 1-4 inches of snow, while foothill areas likely to see a dusting at best. The primary impact from this system will be wind. Strong westerly winds will shift to northwesterly tonight into Tuesday morning and increase in intensity, so winds of 30-60 mph with higher gusts will be likely across much of CO, with emphasis over the mountains and foothills, as well as eastern plains. Winds will gradually diminish during the day on Tuesday, but temps will remain on the cool side of average for most areas in wake of cold front.

Wednesday and Thursday look dry and warm across the state. Brisk northwest flow aloft will remain over the state, so breezy to windy conditions will be possible for mountain and foothill areas. Clouds will begin to increase late in the day on Thursday with isolated showers possible west of the Divide with snow level near 10,000 ft. Another weak disturbance will skirt to our north and drag associated cold front into CO Thursday night into Friday morning which will increase precip chances across much of CO. Best precip chances will remain along and north of I-70, but precip could move south top Palmer Divide region with snow level near 6000 ft. Thus, foothill areas could see a trace to 2 inches of accumulation above 6000 ft Thursday night into Friday about Noon, then conditions begin to improve. Roads could become slick Thursday night into Friday morning, and temps Friday should be below average.

Saturday looks mostly dry for eastern CO, some lingering flurries possible in the mountains as temps return to near to slightly above average. Next Pacific system will bring precip to western CO Saturday night into Sunday morning with snow level near 10,000 ft. Some precip may spread into the foothills and Urban Corridor Sunday morning as snow level lowers to 8000-9000 ft, but any precip looks to remain light. Conditions should clear Sunday afternoon with a few lingering flurries in the mountains.

For next week, Monday through Wednesday looks dry statewide as temps climb above average. Some precip will be possible, mostly along and west of the Divide Wednesday night into Thursday morning with snow level around 10,000 ft Wednesday afternoon lowering to near 6000 ft Thursday morning. Remainder of Thursday looks dry, then next precip chances will be Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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