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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Late March
Post Posted: Mar 11, 2018 2:33 pm 
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Mostly sunny day across the state with temps near seasonal average values. Some clouds and a few showers will be possible across the southwest portion of the state this afternoon, with snow level near 9000 ft.

For the week ahead, mostly dry conditions expected statewide Monday through Wednesday. A few showers will be possible Monday afternoon over the northern mountains, but nothing of significance. Temps Monday will be slightly above average. Upper level ridge will move over the state Tuesday into Wednesday, so dry conditions statewide and temps will remain above average.

By Thursday models develop a deep upper level low off the northern CA coast with southwest flow aloft over CO. Models suggest some precip may be possible across portions of western CO along and west of the Divide during the day on Thursday, with snow level 8000-9000 ft. Models have come into better agreement recently, and keep the upper lvele low off the central CA coast through Saturday, so Friday weather across CO currently looks mostly dry and mild. Clouds and precip will mostly remain to our west on Saturday as well, with just some showers moving into western CO late in the day on Saturday with snow level 10,000 ft. Temps will be above average most areas on Saturday. Upper low become an upper trough and moves across CO on Sunday, but current track would keep energy mostly across western CO, so not a lot of precip for eastern CO at this time. Precip would move into western CO Saturday night into Sunday with snow level near 6000 ft. Some showers may move into the foothills Sunday afternoon as snow level remains near 6000 ft, but nothing significant with a dusting to an inch currently forecast. Mountains could see 5-12 inches of snow. Temps look to be cooler than average on Sunday.

For the next week, Monday could see a few mountain flurries, but dry elsewhere as temps remain on the cool side of average. Tuesday should be mostly dry with temps near seasonal norms. Tuesday through Thursday look dry with temps above average. Models then suggest we could see precip chances Friday into Sunday, but too early to tell details.

The first 11 days of March have resulted in no measurable snowfall, so we are falling more and more behind as fire danger continues to increase with less and less snow on the ground. The only sign of hope I see is a new positive phase of a MJO building in the western Pacific, that may make its way towards Norther America by April. So I will continue to hold out hope for a wet (snowy) April for us.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late March
Post Posted: Mar 14, 2018 1:18 pm 
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Mostly sunny and mild day across the state with temps well above average once again, but some change is on the way. A complex upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will create precip chances over CO Thursday and again Sunday. First impulse will move across CO on Thursday, but even ahead of this some showers will be possible across western CO this afternoon into tonight with a snow level near 10,000 ft. The primary precip will move into western CO late Thursday morning and into eastern CO by Thursday afternoon and evening. SNow level will remain near 10,000 ft Thursday during the day, then lower to near 8000 ft by Thursday evening and down to 6000 ft Thursday night. Best chance for precip in the foothills will be from 3 pm Thursday to 9 pm, thus the initial precip may fall as rain and then latter part could become snow. Even a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two Thursday afternoon and evening as enough instability will exist in the atmosphere to create a few isolated thunderstorms from the foothills to the plains. Precip amounts should remain light in the foothills, with under 0.10 inches of liquid, thus just a dusting to an inch of snow possible above 8000 ft, and roads should remain just wet for the most part. Mountain areas could see 4-8 inches of snow at higher elevations through Friday morning. Even the eastern plains could see up to 0.25 inches of rain from this system as it intensifies as it moves into western KS Friday morning, which could create gusty northerly winds over the plains Thursday night into Friday morning. Remainder of Friday should be dry with temps near average.

Saturday should be a fairly nice day, especially the first half. The second portion of the upper level trough over the Pacific will move across the northern and central Rockies on Sunday. Some showers will develop across western CO Saturday afternoon with snow level near 8000 ft. Temps across eastern CO should be above average. Precip will spread east Saturday night to about the Front Range Crest as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft by Sunday morning. Mountains could see another 3-7 inches of snow from this system. Showers will spread into the foothills and eastern CO during the day on Sunday as snow level lowers to near 5000 ft. Again, precip am amounts will remain light across eastern CO, so only a dusting to an inch of snow expected in the foothills on Sunday, so do not expect any road issues. Mountains could see more winter like conditions. Temps on Sunday should be below average most areas.

For next week, Monday looks to remain on the cool side of average with some continuing mountain flurries, but not much accumulation expected. Tuesday looks to be mostly dry but temps will remain slightly below average. Models not in very good agreement for mid to late next week. GFS brings precip into western CO Wednesday and into eastern CO by Thursday, while ECMWF hold off precip until Thursday night into Friday morning, with some light precip into eastern CO Friday afternoon. Snow levels would be pretty high with this system, and any precip in eastern CO looks to remain light at this time. Currently no significant snow events for eastern CO on the horizon through the end of March.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late March
Post Posted: Mar 15, 2018 12:50 pm 
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Another warm day across the state with temps running 10-20 degrees above average, although a dynamic weather day ahead. Upper level trough and associated cold front will move across Co during the day today. Showers along this front have already developed over western CO with isolated embedded thunderstorms, as snow level is currently around 10,000 ft. Front and precip will move into eastern CO later this afternoon and evening and will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the foothills between 3 pm and 6 pm and continue to move east into the plains later this evening and tonight as snow level lowers to near 8000 ft by 6 pm, and down to 6000 ft by midnight. A surface low has formed over east central CO this afternoon creating gusty westerly winds south of I-70 and easterly wind north of the low. Models suggest upper level circulation will intensify overnight and move into northwest KS by Friday morning. This will create strong and gusty westerly winds in the foothills tonight into Friday morning, as NWS has issued a High Wind watch for winds of 25-50 mph with gusts to 70 mph. Another concern will be for near blizzard conditions across the northeast plains tonight into Friday morning in wrap around circulation from upper low as snow level lowers to 4000-5000 ft by Friday morning. Mountains have Winter Weather Advisories issues for 5-10 inches of snow from this afternoon through Friday morning, thus difficult travel conditions overnight through the mountains as snow and wind combine. For our foothills, believe most of the precip we see from this system will fall as rain, or a combination of rain and sleet this afternoon and evening, so doubt there will be any travel issues unless a thundersnow squall moves through and deposits and inch or two of snow in localized areas.

Wind should subside during the day on Friday, but temps should remain on the cool side of average for a blustery feeling kind of day.

For the weekend, Saturday looks to remain dry and mild, with temps above average statewide. The general trend in latest models has been to slow next system down, but also intensify it a bit as the main energy now moves across the CO/NM border late Sunday into Monday morning. Models bring precip into western CO Sunday morning with snow level around 6000 ft. Models then develop a surface low over southeast CO with good upslope flow over much of eastern CO Sunday afternoon and evening as snow level remains near 6000 ft. Precip has mostly moves east into KS and NE by Monday morning as snow level lowers to 4000-5000 ft overnight. Models suggest between 0.5 and 1.0 inches of liquid equivalent across much of eastern CO from this system, which would translate to 5-10 inches of snow above 6000-7000 ft in the foothills by Monday morning, so could be a slow and slick Monday morning commute if latest models are correct. I will remain optimistic for some good moisture from this system, but it will ultimately depend on how the system evolves.

For next week, looks like Monday and Tuesday remain cooler than average with some lingering flurries, mostly in the mountains. Wednesday and Thursday temps will rise above average, with a chance for some precip along and west of teh Divide late Thursday into Friday as snow level begins around 10,000 ft Thursday lowering to 8000 ft Friday. Saturday looks dry and mild, then more precip possible Sunday into Monday according to longer range models.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late March
Post Posted: Mar 16, 2018 1:55 pm 
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Windy day across the state with west to northwest winds of 20-45 mph and some higher gusts. Winds will gradually diminish through the day as temps will be near seasonal norms for most areas. High fire danger exists today due to strong winds and low RH values. Appears a wildland fire has broken out on Ft. Carson property already today. Saturday looks to be a mostly sunny day with temps 5-10 degrees above average.

Latest models bring next system into CO late Sunday into Monday morning. Guidance is for a upper level low to form along the CO/NM border on Sunday and move into KS on Monday. This system will produce good precip across much of CO Sunday into Monday morning as upslope flow develops across eastern CO Sunday afternoon and night. Precip moves into western CO Sunday morning with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will spread east during the day and move into the foothills Sunday afternoon, then into the plains Sunday night. Snow level remains at 6000 ft through 6 pm Sunday, then lowers to 4000-5000 ft by midnight. This will be a fairly quick shot of precip, but could be heavy at times from 6 pm Sunday through midnight Sunday in the foothills. Models output 0.5 to 1.0 inches of liquid equivalent for foothill areas, so this would suggest 5-10 inches of the wet and heavy Spring variety of snow will be possible in the foothills, which could make driving difficult from Sunday evening into Monday morning. Models suggest most precip will be done shortly after midnight as system moves east quickly, but roads could still be slush and snow packed early Monday morning, then should improve quickly as sun rises and helps melt. Mountains likely to see 5-10 inches of snow as well, while Urban Corridor and Plains should see much lighter amounts in the 1-3 inch range due to warmer temps at lower elevations. Northerly winds will also be fairly strong during the snow making travel difficult and creating higher drifts.

For next week, Monday should be dry outside of a few mountain flurries and some gusty northwest winds will have a blustery feel as temps remain on the cool side of average. Tuesday should be dry statewide as temps return to near average values. Wednesday will be breezy as temps climb well above average. Next system from the Pacific will bring precip into western CO along and west of the Divide during the day on Thursday with snow level near 10,000 ft. Elsewhere dry conditions and temps well above average. Friday will be cooler and breezy, with some lingering mountains flurries and westerly winds of 20-45 mph.

For next weekend, Saturday looks mostly dry with temps near average. Sunday will see temps remain near to slightly below average, and some snow return to mountain areas with snow level near 5000 ft.

For the following week, models suggest more snow chances for CO early in the week then dry and warmer late in the week.

As a side note, yesterday was the first time I have recorded rain at my home on Conifer Mountains in March. First rain has always been from mid April to early May over the previous 12 years.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late March
Post Posted: Mar 18, 2018 1:41 pm 
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Clouds and precip will move into foothills areas this afternoon mostly after 3 pm, with snow becoming moderate at times through midnight. Precip is occurring mover the mountains with snow level near 8000 ft, and will spread east this afternoon. Snow level is forecast to lower to near 6000 ft by this evening, then lower to near 4000 ft overnight. Heaviest snow will be over by about midnight, with lingering light snow and flurries into Monday morning, then gradual clearing during the day on Monday. Latest models have decreased snow amounts for foothills areas, thus for snow amounts, looks like mountain areas should see 5-10 inches, with 2-6 inches in the foothills and Palmer Divide. For the Urban Corridor, perhaps 1-3 inches will be possible mostly on grassy surfaces with lesser amounts on the plains. Travel will become difficult through the mountains today and tonight. Foothills roads will likely become snow and ice packed from late this afternoon into Monday morning. Roads below 6000 ft will likely remain mostly wet. Temps today will be near seasonal norms before precip starts, then cool. Temps Monday will be below average.

For the work week ahead, mostly dry conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as temps rise back to average Tuesday and above average Wednesday. By Thursday, some precip will move into western CO along and west of the Divide with snow level 8000-9000 ft, and dry elsewhere as temps remain above average. Precip chances persist on Friday in the mountains with snow level remaining near 8000 ft. Only a slight chance any precip will move east into the foothills late in the day on Friday.

Next weekend looks mostly dry statewide as temps remain above average. For next week, upper level trough is forecast to remain over the western U.S. which will keep temps on the cool aside of average and create decent precip chances over Co Monday through Wednesday, with drier and warmer conditions late next week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late March
Post Posted: Mar 20, 2018 1:49 pm 
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A Happy Vernal Equinox to everyone, as Spring officially begins today. Spring typically brings out the wild side of weather, and this year will be no exception, outside of Colorado of course. The East Coast will see yet another Nor'Easter today into Wednesday that will cause widespread travel disruptions with 12-30 inches of snow in some areas, and California will see an "Atmospheric River" event that will bring 5-10 inches of rain to coastal areas over the next 72 hours, and 4-8 feet of snow in the Sierras.

For our state, mostly sunny today outside of a few mountain flurries as temps remain near to slightly below average for most areas. Upper level ridge will build over CO the next few days which will cause temps to rise well above average values Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday temps will be 5-10 degrees above average, but temps will rise to 10-20 degrees above average Thursday and Friday. As upper ridge axis passes to our east on Thursday, western Co will see some increase n clouds by Thursday afternoon with a few isolated showers and snow level around 12,000 ft. By Friday, precip will move into western CO mostly along and west of the Divide with snow level near 10,000 ft. Only a slight chance for any precip in the foothills Friday afternoon.

For the weekend, Saturday looks mostly sunny as temps remain well above average. Sunday should also remain mostly dry statewide as temps remain above average. Some light precip may move into western CO west of the Divide by Sunday afternoon and evening, with snow level near 9000 ft.

For next week, upper level trough will replace upper ridge over the western U.S. and this will increase precip chances over CO from Monday into Tuesday along with cooler temps. Precip will gradually move from western CO into eastern CO during the day on Monday with snow level near 8000 ft. Precip will continue across much of CO Monday night into Tuesday morning as snow level lowers to 5000-6000 ft, so foothill areas could see several inches of snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning as temps remain below average on Tuesday. Mid to late next week models have very different solutions, but each keeps CO dry Wednesday through Friday as temps remain near to slightly below average. GFS brings precip into CO next weekend, while ECMWF keeps CO dry and mild. To early to tell which way that will go.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late March
Post Posted: Mar 21, 2018 3:13 pm 
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Partly to mostly cloudy day across CO as moisture from Pacific "Atmospheric River" event moves into CO. Some light snow in the mountains today, dry elsewhere as temps run 5-10 degrees above average. West Coast being slammed with rain and snow at higher elevations while the East Coast is slammed with snow today, causing over 4500 flight cancellations across the country. Not a good day to travel by airplane in some areas.

Thursday should remain dry across our state as upper level ridge moves over the state, and temps will be 10-20 degrees above average. A few isolated showers possible over western CO Thursday afternoon with snow level around 12,000 ft. Additional moisture from Pacific systems moves into western CO Thursday night into Friday morning as snow level lowers to near 10,000 ft. Majority of precip will remain along and west of the Divide, but a few showers may move into eastern CO Friday afternoon with snow level remaining near 10,000 ft.

Weekend continues to look mostly dry as temps remain well above average. A few flurries may be possible over the mountains, but that should be about it.

Next week is beginning to look interesting. Upper level trough is forecast to move into the Great Basin on Monday, and become a closed upper level low over northern AZ on Tuesday, then slowly meander east across central AZ and NM Wednesday into Thursday. Depending on the actual track and intensity of this system, CO could see a significant Spring system for much of next week. Models at this time are bringing good precip to much of the state Monday afternoon into Thursday afternoon. Snow level looks to be near 6000 ft during much of the event, so could be a good snow event for our foothills. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the track of this system, so nothing to bet the farm on at this point, but certainly worth keep a close eye on. This is the time of year for such events in our state. Models today are suggesting 2-3 inches of liquid equivalent may be possible, so will keep my fingers crossed as we desperately need the moisture.

Friday into next weekend looks dry and mild, then more precip possible the following week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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