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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into mid March
Post Posted: Mar 1, 2018 3:48 pm 
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Warm, dry and breezy day across most of the state after our brief encounter with snow yesterday evening. Weak system will bring a chance for some light precip over western CO along and north of I-70 this afternoon and evening with snow level around 7000 ft.. Temps are generally above average today across the state with gusty southerly winds east of the foothills and southwest winds along and west of the foothills. Friday and Saturday will continue to be dry statewide, and southwest winds aloft will increase over the state ahead of deep upper level low over the Pacific Northwest. This will combine to raise temps 5-15 degrees above average each day, and create high fire danger in areas absent snow as southwest winds of 20-45 mph will be possible each day.

Models forecast upper level trough to move east across the northern and central Rockies on Sunday which will cool temps back close to or below average, and create precip chances as system moves across CO. Precip will move into western Co Sunday morning with snow level near 6000 ft and cold front will move east into eastern CO Sunday afternoon which will carry precip chances into eastern CO Sunday afternoon and evening as snow level lowers to near 4000 ft. As cold front passes, winds will become northwesterly and become strong with speeds of 20-45 mph possible. Models suggest vast majority of precip will remain along and west of teh Front Range Crest from this system with mountain areas receiving 2-6 inches. Foothills likely to only see a dusting as winds remain westerly during this system, while areas farther east may see a bit more precip, especially far northeast plains. Winds will remain gusty overnight into Monday morning.

For next week, Monday and Tuesday look dry with temps below average. Wednesday through Friday also look to remain dry but temps will rise above average each day. For next weekend, models suggest a chance for some precip across CO, mostly along and west of the Divide, but the chance for precip moving into eastern CO exists early the following week.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into mid March
Post Posted: Mar 3, 2018 5:23 pm 
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Another sunny and warm day across the state, with temps running 20 degrees above average in may locations with 60's n the foothills, 70's along the Urban Corridor and mid to upper 70's over the plains. Some gusty southerly winds at times which has prompted Red Flag Warnings across much of eastern CO. Upper level trough will move over CO on Sunday and bring some precip to areas along and west of the Divide. Southwest winds aloft will increase ahead of system so expect gusty southwest winds tonight into Sunday morning in the foothills. Models in general have delayed the system a bit, so cold front will move into western CO Sunday morning and into our foothills by 3-6 pm Sunday. Precip will accompany cold front in western CO with snow level near 6000 ft. Mountain areas will see 2-6 inches of snow from this system, along with gusty westerly winds which will make travel difficult on Sunday. As cold front passes, gusty northwest winds and cooler temps will be in place, but little if any precip is expected east of the Front Range Crest from this system, maybe a dusting in the foothills Sunday evening.

Cooler temps and breezy westerly winds will be in place Monday statewide as temps will remain below average. Tuesday will see mostly sunny skies as temps rise to near seasonal normal values. Wednesday through Friday will remain dry and temps will rise above average each day, with near record values Thursday and Friday, which will again create high fire danger across much of eastern CO. Models suggest a chance for precip on Saturday as upper level trough moves into CO. ECMWF is stronger with this system and would bring decent snow to much of CO Saturday into Sunday morning. Too early to tell how this system will evolve, but will keep my hopes up for some good precip this coming weekend.

Models then suggest dry and warm conditions the following week Monday through Friday.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into mid March
Post Posted: Mar 5, 2018 2:14 pm 
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Very windy day across most of CO today, at least from the Divide east as strong northwest flow aloft combines with strong surface pressure gradient to create northwest winds of 25-50 mph with gusts above 60 mph. High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning covers most of eastern CO today, so extreme fire danger for most of eastern CO today. Orographic mountain snow will persists much of the day today into this evening, but only light accumulations expected, however travel will be difficult in mountain areas due to snow and high winds. Really, travel anywhere today may be challenging due to winds, definitely a two hands on the wheel kinda day. Winds will begin to diminish some this evening, but will remain gusty overnight in areas before calming down statewide on Tuesday. Temps will remain on the cool side of average today.

The rest of the week will remain mostly dry, except for a few mountain flurries Tuesday morning. Temps will be back near average on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds calm down. Temps will rise above average Thursday and Friday as conditions remain dry, so fire danger will remain elevated this week for most of eastern CO including the foothills.

Next chance for any precip will be on Saturday, but latest models keep this system weak and to our north, so a chance for some mountain precip on Saturday with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Only a slight chance foothills will see any precip, and dry farther east. Temps Saturday will be near to slightly below average. Sunday looks partly to mostly cloudy with some precip moving into southwest CO by Sunday afternoon with snow level 8000-9000 ft. Temps should be near to slightly above average on Sunday.

For next week, Monday will see more cloudy conditions with some mountain flurries along and west of the Divide with snow level near 9000 ft. Temps will be above average most areas. Tuesday will see more mountain precip with snow level remaining near 9000 ft and temps will be above average most areas. Only a slight chance for any precip in the foothills Tuesday afternoon. Upper level ridge moves over CO late next week, which will mean dry conditions statewide and temps well above average Wednesday through Friday. Next chance for any precip will be St. Patrick's Day weekend. Too early to tell how much and how likely at this time.

The first half of March is starting out very dry for most of the state, so hoping the latter half will change. This time of year it only takes one big Spring storm to make a big difference in moisture levels, so will keep my hopes up for a big system later in March or April to help us out.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into mid March
Post Posted: Mar 7, 2018 2:07 pm 
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Mostly sunny day across the state today as temps rise slightly above seasonal norms. Upper level ridge axis will move over CO the next 48 hours, so expect more dry weather and temps will rise 10-20 degrees above average Thursday and Friday. Upper level winds will become westerly, with some gusty surface winds across eastern CO on Friday, which will create very high fire danger as RH values remain very low.

On Saturday a weak disturbance will skirt to our north which will cool temps back closer to average values, and create a chance for some light snow over the northern and Central mountains above 6000 ft. Currently only looks like a couple of inches of accumulation possible, and some brief showers may be possible from the foothills to the eastern plains Saturday afternoon as snow level remains in the 6000-7000 ft range. Temps will be a bit cooler Sunday as cold front moves over eastern Co late on Saturday. Mostly dry weather expected Sunday across the state, except for a few showers possible across southwest CO late in the day with snow level 8000-9000 ft.

For next week, Pacific system will bring precip chances to western CO mostly along and south of I-70 on Monday with snow level near 8000 ft. Precip will mostly remain along and west of the Divide during teh day on Monday, but lots of mid and high level clouds will spill into eastern CO. Temps on Monday will be near seasonal norms. On Tuesday, a weak upper level system will move over CO from the northwest which will bring enhanced precip chances across much of the state with snow level near 6000 ft. Currently does not look like much beyond a dusting to an inch or so in the foothills, but any moisture is appreciated at this point.

For mid to late next week, models currently not in very good agreement. Wednesday looks dry and warm on both model solutions. After that they diverge. Both models develop a deep upper level low off the CA coast late next week, but GFS as usual is faster with the system and brings precip into western CO by Thursday afternoon, while the ECMWF does not bring significant precip into western CO until Friday night into Saturday morning. My usual bias prefers the ECMWF with a slower system this time of year, but models hopefully better align by early next week. This system has the potential to bring decent precip to much of CO next weekend so will keep a close eye on how things develop.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into mid March
Post Posted: Mar 8, 2018 1:56 pm 
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Yet another warm and dry day across CO this winter, kind of a theme this season. At least winds are relatively light, except for some gusty westerly winds at higher elevations. Temps will run 10-20 degrees above average in most areas today. Pretty much a repeat of today for Friday, dry statewide with temps again 10-20 degrees above average, and Friday may see stronger winds in many areas creating high fore danger for most of eastern CO including the foothills, where not much snow remains below 9000 ft.

For the weekend, expect cooler temps closer to seasonal norms, and a chance for some light precip in the foothills on Saturday. A weak system will drop down from the northern Rockies and skirt northern CO Friday night into Saturday morning bringing snow chances to the northern and central mountains above 6000 ft, and then lesser chances for precip into the foothills and northeast plains Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Not expecting much beyond a dusting of snow in our foothills from this system. Sunday will be mostly dry statewide after a cool morning start, temps will climb to near average values. Western part of our state may see some precip by Sunday afternoon/evening with snow level near 9000 ft. as moisture from a Pacific systems moves into CO. This system will bring precip to much of CO along and west of the Front Range Crest Sunday night into Monday morning as the snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Mountains could see 2-5 inches of snow.

Previous system will linger over CO during the day on Monday bringing more precip to mountain areas, and a slight chance of precip into our foothills with snow level 7000-8000 ft on Monday. Once again, not much more than a dusting expected in the foothills from this system. Precip should exist the state Monday night. Mostly dry conditions expected Tuesday with temps near average. Wednesday should also be dry statewide with temps above average.

By mid to late next week, models develop a deep upper level low off the CA coast that eventually tracks inland and brings precip to CO. Models currently are not in very good agreement as to the when and how much precip side of the solution. Leaning towards the ECMWF solution, CO would see mostly dry and mild conditions Thursday, but southwest winds would begin to increase. By Friday, some precip would move into western CO along and west of the Divide with snow level near 8000 ft. The bulk of precip would move across most of CO Saturday during the day through Sunday morning as upper level trough moves over CO with snow level near 6000 ft lowering to 4000 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning. Still a lot of uncertainty with the track and intensity of this system, so it bears watching as it could produce a fair amount of snow for mountain and foothill areas, or it could wash out like many of the systems have this year. Models suggest the potential for more precip the following week as upper level trough remains over the western U.S.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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