Weather Outlook into Early February
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Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 28, 2018 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Weather Outlook into Early February

Mostly sunny and dry day across the state, with a few mountain flurries possible along and north of I-70. A few isolated showers over the far northeast plains this morning, but should dissipate this afternoon. Flow aloft will be from the northwest over CO today and wind speeds will be increasing during the day, so expect gusty northwest winds over the mountains and into our foothills this afternoon into this evening. Speeds will mostly be in the 20-45 mph range, with some gusts to 70 mph over higher terrain. Temps will be near to slightly above average today for most areas of the state.

For the week ahead, mostly dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday across the state, with temps expected to be above average each day. Models suggest a cold front will drop south out of WY Wednesday evening and move south over CO Wednesday night. Behind the front much colder temps will move over CO and some light snow will be possible early Thursday morning into Thursday evening over much of CO north of US 50. Snow amounts are expected to remain light, with 1-3 inches possible. Temps will be below average on Thursday as well. After a cool start Friday morning, mostly sunny skies will allow temps to rise to near average values.

For the weekend, mostly sunny with temps near average on Saturday. A arctic front is forecast to move south over CO Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some light snow will be possible in cold arctic air behind front Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, but amounts will again remain on the light side, with a trace to 2 inches possible.

Arctic air is short lived as warmer air moves over CO to start next week as temps return to near average values Monday. Mostly dry and mild conditions are expected to persist next week into next weekend across CO.

From the Climate Prediction Center, weak La Nina conditions persist in the Pacific. Model consensus is that ocean temps will begin to warm this Spring and move ENSO conditions back towards Neutral heading into the summer. A positive phase of the MJO appears to have formed out in the central Pacific and will move towards North America in February, so this may help lead to better precip chances over CO by late February into March. We have been in a negative phase of the MJO since December, which has assisted in our prolonged dry period. As we transition into Neutral ENSO values, better hope for at least average precipitation as we head into the spring and summer months. If not, it could be a very dangerous fire season across our state.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 29, 2018 3:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Early February

Mostly sunny and mild day across the state as temps are running 5-15 degrees above average. Tuesday should be very similar to Monday with temps even warmer, so close to 20 degrees above average in some areas. Westerly winds will begin to increase Tuesday afternoon, especially at higher elevations but this will also increase fire danger in areas absent snow, so Red Flag Warnings will be likely across portions of south central and southeast CO. Westerly winds will continue to increase into Wednesday, so expect windy conditions on Wednesday with wind speeds of 25-50 mph with higher gusts at higher elevations. A cold front will begin to move south across CO Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, making it south to about US 50 by midnight. Before the cold front moves south, temps will once again be above average across most of CO. Northeast winds will develop behind cold front and temps will drop. Latest models are pretty sparse on moisture, so currently only think a dusting to an inch will be possible for most areas, with best chances of accumulating snow over the northern mountains and Palmer Divide Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then a few mountain flurries possible Thursday afternoon. Temps will drop below average on Thursday statewide.

Friday looks dry with temps neat to slightly above average. Latest models bring next system into CO a bit faster, with arctic front dropping south into CO Saturday afternoon and evening. Temps before the front moves through will be near average, then temps will lower dramatically behind front. Models also are bit more robust with moisture from this system, although with arctic air moist6ure is usually pretty limited, so perhaps 1-3 inches possible across much of eastern CO from the Divide east from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Also expect foggy conditions in the foothills with ice fog creating slick roads. Snow should diminish by Sunday afternoon, but low clouds and fog may hang on until Sunday evening.

For next week, new system is forecast by models to bring precip into western CO during the day on Monday, spreading into eastern Co Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Snow level will be near 6000 ft Monday and down to 5000 ft Tuesday. Amounts should be fairly light, with 2-5 inches in the mountains and a trace to 2 inches in our foothills. Temps near average Monday and below average Tuesday. Rest of next week looks dry and mild Wednesday through Friday, then cooler with snow possible across eastern Co Saturday, dry and warmer Sunday.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 31, 2018 5:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Early February

More clouds and cooler today with temps near average. Cold front will push south this evening across CO and bring cooler air into the state. Moisture is pretty limited with this system, so most areas will not see any snow accumulation. Best chances are across the northeast plains and over the northern mountains. There will be a chance for some light freezing drizzle tonight over the Metro area and eastern plains, so roads could be slick where freezing drizzle fall in the morning. For out foothills, perhaps a dusting of snow in some areas, but not much more. Upper level winds will remain very strong from the northwest into Thursday, so gusty winds possible at higher elevations of the mountains and foothills. Mountains could see some lingering snow during the day on Thursday, otherwise dry elsewhere with temps below average.

Friday looks dry with temps slightly above average on Friday except a few mountain flurries above 6000 ft. Saturday should also be dry and mild as latest model keep arctic air farther north now, so no arctic front moving into CO on Sunday, this just a few flurries across the far northeast plains Sunday morning, otherwise dry with temps above average elsewhere.

Another system will skirt to our north on Monday, so precip chances mostly along and north of I-70 and west of the foothills with snow level near 6000 ft Monday afternoon and evening. Foothills may see a dusting, but that's about it. The rest of next week now looks dry and mild with temps well above average Tuesday through Friday, and likely extending into next weekend.

Author:  wxgeek [ Feb 1, 2018 3:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Early February

Cooler temps today, especially across northern CO where some light snowfall occurred along and north of I-70. Precip has mostly cleared out with a few lingering flurries over the mountains north of I-70.

Friday will return to dry and mild conditions as temps rise back above average across the state. For the weekend upper level ridge will build just off the West Coast which will keep a dry and mild northwest flow aloft over CO. Some mountain precip will be possible Saturday afternoon as snow level will be near 6000 ft. Remainder of CO will remain dry as temps remain above average. The arctic air previous models suggested for Sunday is now off the table. Arctic air will remain to our north, and with it any snow, so CO will remain dry and mild on Sunday.

For next week, upper level ridge is forecast to remain just off the West Coast, so a continuation of our dry and mild conditions is expected for most of next week. A system will skirt to our north late Monday into Tuesday, so a chance for some precip across the mountains Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning mostly along and north of I-70 once again. Only a slight chance foothill areas will see any precip as snow level remains near 6000 ft on Monday afternoon. Cooler temps are expected on Tuesday into Wednesday, so closer to slightly below average temps expected with dry conditions. Late next week dry conditions will persist, as temps rise well above average to near record levels Thursday into Saturday. Perhaps cooler on SUnday with some mountain precip.

Overall February is starting out as November through January has been, mostly dry and mild across our state. We can only hope the pattern begins to change later this month into March. For now, expect more of our abnormally dry and warm winter to continue.

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