It is currently Jul 22, 2019 9:28 pm 






Reply to topic  [ 6 posts ] 

Previous topic | Next topic 

  Print view

Offline 
 Post subject: Mild and Dry Through Friday, Snow Possible This Weekend
Post Posted: Jan 16, 2018 12:43 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 3093
Location: Conifer Mountain
Mostly sunny day today across the state as temps will remain on the cool side of average. Arctic air will be replaces by much warmer Pacific air this week, so temps will be above average Wednesday through Friday, and conditions are expected to remain dry statewide as well through Friday.

Models suggest a potential big change this weekend as they develop an upper level trough that will move to our south Saturday into Sunday. Early stages, so not a lot on confidence yet, but incoming system could become a closed upper low that passes along the CO/NM border which would provide a good upslope flow and snow potential for much of CO, including eastern CO. As usual, some differences in models exist. GFS is faster and keeps upper trough open, while the ECMWF is slower and develops a closed upper level circulation. As usual, I prefer the ECMWF solution at this time. If correct, ECMWF would bring precip into western CO Saturday afternoon, and move precip into eastern CO beginning Sunday morning and persist precip into Sunday evening. Snow level would begin around 6000 ft Saturday then lower to below plains level by Sunday morning, so an all snow event for eastern CO. ECMWF suggests 6-12 inches would be possible in the mountains and foothills, with 3-8 inches possible across the Urban Corridor and plains. I suspect models will have various solution options during the week, so hopefully will have more confidence in a solution later this week. Will keep my fingers crossed that system intensifies and we end up with a good upslope snowstorm to watch football with on Sunday.

Models clear things out Monday but temps remain cool, then another chance for some light snow Monday night into Tuesday. Drier and warmer conditions expected next Wednesday and Thursday, then potential for a more significant system next Friday into Saturday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Mild and Dry Through Friday, Snow Possible This Weekend
Post Posted: Jan 17, 2018 3:26 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 3093
Location: Conifer Mountain
Temps have warmed above average today statewide under mostly sunny skies. Temps will continue to rise to near record levels Thursday and Friday as our state remains abnormally dry.

Attention turns to potential winter storm for this weekend. Models continue to have some differences, but the general consensus is to bring a upper level trough/closed upper low across CO from sometime Saturday into Sunday. ECMWF remains the slower and stronger model with this system, and I suspect American models will come into more alignment with ECMWF later this week. Assuming that is the case, then precip would spread into western CO Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will move into eastern CO beginning Sunday morning as snow level lowers to 4000 ft and persist through Sunday evening. Mountains should see 6-14 inches of snow, while foothill areas could see 4-8 inches, and Urban Corridor and plains 2-6 inches. Roads willbe quite warm to start, but moderate snow should create ice and snow packed roads, especially above 6000 ft during the day on Sunday. Precip should end by midnight with clearing overnight and cold temps.

Next week looks to remain mostly dry but cool Monday through Thursday, then another chance for snow next Friday into Saturday. Following week looks dry and mild to start through Wednesday, then precip chances late that week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Mild and Dry Through Friday, Snow Possible This Weekend
Post Posted: Jan 18, 2018 2:13 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 3093
Location: Conifer Mountain
Some clouds beginning to spill into CO ahead of next system, but temps are 10-20 deg above average across most of eastern CO and approaching record temps in some areas. Pretty similar day expected Friday, but we should see more clouds so temps may not reach record levels, but they will be close.

Models have generally come in line with ECMWF forecast, so with better consistency confidence in forecast for the weekend is increasing. Upper level trough currently approaching the West Coast will move into the Great Basin on Saturday, and become a closed upper low into southeast CO by Sunday morning. Precip will move into western CO mostly west of Vail Pass Saturday afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Precip will gradually move east overnight and will move into eastern CO after about midnight Saturday night as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Precip will cover all of eastern Co by Sunday morning with snow level down to 4000 ft or lower. Heaviest snow for the foothills and Urban Corridor look to be between 3 am and Noon on Sunday. Snow will begin to diminish after Noon on Sunday and be done by around 6-8 pm Sunday. For snow amounts, looks like the following:

Mountains: 6-14 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 4-10 inches
Urban Corridor: 3-7 inches
eastern plains: 2-5 inches

Roads will likely become difficult on Sunday across much of CO, especially above 6000 ft. Expect delays and closures on higher mountain roads. Conditions should be decent by Monday morning.

For next week, temps look to remain below average all week. Conditions should remain dry Monday through Wednesday. Some precip will be possible along and west of the Divide on Thursday with snow level near 6000 ft. Next system will bring precip Thursday night into Friday afternoon across most of CO with snow level down to plains level on Friday. Could see decent snow amounts from this system.

Next weekend looks dry statewide, temps near average Saturday, then above average Sunday. The following week brings a more progressive pattern to CO as systems move from the Pacific Northwest across CO. This will mean good chances for mountain snow, and some chances for precip across eastern CO Tuesday and then over the weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Mild and Dry Through Friday, Snow Possible This Weekend
Post Posted: Jan 19, 2018 2:58 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 3093
Location: Conifer Mountain
Another warm and dry day across the state as temps once again approach record values. Southwest winds will also increase during the day ahead of incoming upper trough with speeds of 20-45 mph over higher terrain. This will act to increase fire danger across much of eastern CO including our foothills today and Saturday. Expect winds to remain gusty overnight and into Saturday afternoon.

Models generally in good agreement on incoming system, with of course some subtle differences that have a big impact on local snowfall amounts. ECMWF remains the strongest of all models while the GFS appears to be the weakest. I will trend towards the ECMWF as it has been very consistent and the NAM for the forecast. Upper level trough will move into the Great Basin on Saturday, and then become a closed upper level low Saturday night and move over southwest CO Sunday morning and track along the CO/NM border during the day on Sunday, moving into southwest KS by Sunday evening. At the surface, showers will spread into western CO, mostly along and west of Vail Pass Saturday afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Eastern CO will remain warm and breezy Saturday as temps again will be well above average. Surface low pressure will develop over southeast CO Saturday evening, and help bring a cold front south from WY into CO. As precip gradually moves east Saturday night, snow level will lower to 6000 ft by midnight. Precip begins to move into our foothills and eastern CO around midnight Saturday night as snow level lowers to 4000 ft or lower. Heaviest snow will move into the foothills and Urban Corridor between 6 am and Noon on Sunday. There is some concern about wind direction with this system. Some models suggest a limited upslope component keeping winds from the north, while others have full blown upslope flow from the northeast. If the more northerly flow develops, this will limit snowfall in our foothills, and favor heavier snow over the Palmer Divide and eastern plains. I will continue to trust the ECMWF with its better northeast flow, so have the following snow amounts:

Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 4-8 inches, with up to 12 inches in favored areas
Urban Corridor: 3-7 inches
eastern plains: 4-8 inches north of I-70, 2-6 inches south of I-70

Roads will likely become difficult during the day on Sunday statewide. With warm temps this week, initial snow likely to melt and then freeze as heavier snow develops creating very slick roads. Strong northerly winds will create blowing and drifting of snow in the mountains as well over the eastern plains that could lead to delays as well as road closures. Snow should begin to diminish Sunday afternoon and mostly end by Sunday evening except across far eastern CO where snow could persist through midnight Sunday night. Roads should be in pretty good shape Monday morning with some slick spots remaining.

For next week, expect mostly dry conditions Monday through Thursday statewide. Temps will remain on the cool side of average Monday and Tuesday, then warm to near average Wednesday and Thursday. Models bring a upper level trough over CO Thursday night into Friday which will bring snow to the mountains, and a chance for some precip across eastern CO. GFS has better precip for eastern CO while the ECMWF keeps precip along and west of the Front Range Crest. Saturday looks cool with some flurries possible, mostly over higher terrain.

For the following week, Sunday through Tuesday look mild and dry, then more precip possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, then again Friday into Saturday. As the persistent upper level ridge appears to have moved farther west into the Pacific, this will allow more frequent storms to move across CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Mild and Dry Through Friday, Snow Possible This Weekend
Post Posted: Jan 20, 2018 5:29 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 3093
Location: Conifer Mountain
Overall trend in models past 24 hours is to slow system down as ECMWF has suggested, and keeps the track of upper level low along the CO/NM border which will create a powerful winter storm for much of our state tonight into Sunday evening. Upper level low currently near Las Vegas will move along the UT/AZ border tonight and then along the CO/NM border on Sunday as the upper low intensifies. This should provide a good northeast upslope flow across much of eastern CO. Showers have developed across western CO this afternoon with snow level near 8000 ft. As upper low approaches the 4 Corners region overnight, precip will increase in coverage and intensity as it spreads eastward and snow level will lower to near 6000 ft by midnight. Models bring precip into our foothills around midnight and will intensify and spread into the plains by Sunday morning as snow level lowers below 4000 ft. There is also the possibility of a period of freezing drizzle overnight across the eastern plains before snow moves in Sunday morning creating very slick roads. Heaviest snow looks to be between 6 am and 3 pm for foothills, and from Noon to 6 pm over the plains. Strong northerly winds of 20-45 mph will accompany snow which will create near blizzard conditions for much of eastern CO on Sunday making travel difficult to impossible. Snow amounts have crept up with slower storm movement, so looking at the following:

Mountains: 6-16 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 6-12 inches with up to 18 inches possible in favored areas
Urban Corridor: 5-10 inches
eastern plains north of I-70: 5-10 inches
eastern plains south of I-70: 3-7 inches

Travel Sunday will be difficult at best, and likely impossible at times Sunday as road closures will be likely. Expect delays as well as mandatory traction laws on most major highways Sunday.

Snow will begin to diminish Sunday afternoon in our foothills, ending Sunday evening, while snow persists through midnight across the the eastern plains. Due to later end of snow, roads could still be slick and snow packed for the Monday morning commute, so expect a slower drive down the hill. Roads should be fine by Monday afternoon/evening for the return commute.

Expect dry and cool conditions Monday and Tuesday next week as temps remain below average. Dry conditions persist Wednesday and Thursday as temps warm back to near seasonal norms or slightly above.

Next precip chances will be Friday as upper trough moves over CO. Majority of precip will be in the mountains where an additional 3-7 inches will be possible. Some snow will be possible for eastern CO Friday afternoon, but likely less than 2 inches for most areas.

Next weekend looks dry with temps near average. For the following week, dry Monday then more precip possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, then more precip Friday into Saturday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Mild and Dry Through Friday, Snow Possible This Weekend
Post Posted: Jan 21, 2018 1:22 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 3093
Location: Conifer Mountain
Upper level low center just south of Pueblo at the Noon hour and will continue to track eastward through this evening. Storm is on track with latest forecast snow amounts, with reports showing 6-12 inches in the mountains, 5-10 inches in the foothills, and 2-6 inches over the Urban Corridor and eastern plains so far. Moderate snow will continue this afternoon and gradually diminish with heaviest now moving into the eastern plains late this afternoon and evening. Snow should finally stop between 6-9 pm in the foothills, and by midnight across the eastern plains. Northerly winds of 15-40 mph currently creating blowing and drifting snow across much of CO, and winds will increase this afternoon into tonight, so driving conditions will remain difficult through tonight, especially across the eastern plains where blizzard conditions will be likely through Monday morning, so road closures very possible if not likely east of the Front Range later this afternoon through Monday morning. Elsewhere traction laws in effect for most mountain and foothills highways, including US 285 from Kenosha Pass to the C-470 interchange. Roads will likely still have some snow and slush for the morning commute, so expect slower speeds and a longer commute. Roads should be fine for the return commute Monday afternoon/evening.

Forecast from yesterday still looks goof for the work week ahead. Dry and cool Monday and Tuesday, dry and mild Wednesday and Thursday statewide. Next system will bring snow to the mountains Thursday night into Friday evening, but latest models keep nearly all precip along and west of the Front Range Crest, so little if any precip expected for our foothills and eastern CO. Some flurries possible in the mountains on Saturday as temps will be below average. Then dry and mild Sunday into Tuesday of next week, before more snow will be possible statewide next Wednesday, then dry and cool Thursday and Friday with some flurries in the mountains possible. Models suggest a more significant system may be possible next Sunday into Monday, time will tell.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 6 posts ] 

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:

Who is online

In total there are 29 users online :: 0 registered, 0 hidden and 29 guests (based on users active over the past 60 minutes)
Most users ever online was 2823 on Mar 26, 2012 7:26 pm

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 29 guests





Powered by phpBB © 2000-2012 phpBB Group

This website copyright © 1994-2019 by
Pinecam.com is a member of the Platte Canyon Area Chamber of Commerce