Weather Outlook into Late January
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Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 7, 2018 12:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Weather Outlook into Late January

Mountains picked up 6-12 inches of snow Saturday afternoon into this morning, while foothills were left dry. Mostly sunny today with temps near to slightly above average. For the week ahead, models have begun to downplay snow chances mid week as all models are taking the energy from upper level trough farther south into central NM. Monday and Tuesday will be dry and mild statewide, as temps rise well above seasonal norms each day, possibly near record levels Tuesday. Westerly winds will pick up Tuesday as well, so higher fire danger this week for much of eastern CO. Models now move upper level trough across southern AZ and central NM Wednesday, so majority of precip will remain south of US 50 with this next system. Precip will move into western CO Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with snow level near 8000 ft. During the day on Wednesday precip will move across CO into eastern CO mostly along and south of I-70 with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will begin to taper off Wednesday evening but some flurries may persist into Thursday morning. For snow amounts, mountains could see another 5-10 inches, while foothills look to receive 2-6 inches, with mostly rain below 6000 ft for eastern CO. If models continue to take energy farther south, then snow amounts could be reduced for local areas.

Thursday looks dry as temps remain near average. Models then bring a fast moving system from the northwest across CO on Friday. This will be a colder system so snow down to 4000 ft. Mountains will begin to see some snow Friday morning with precip moving into eastern CO Friday afternoon. Snow amounts will remain on the light side, with 2-6 inches in the mountains, and 1-3 inches possible in the foothills with lesser amounts farther east.

For the upcoming weekend, conditions look to remain dry, with temps Saturday near average, then above average Sunday. For the next week, dry and mild conditions look to extend through Friday with temps above average. Models suggest precip may return to CO over the weekend.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 9, 2018 1:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Late January

Near record warmth across much of CO today ahead of incoming Pacific system. Clouds will increase especially across western CO this afternoon as isolated showers develop with snow level near 9000 ft. More numerous showers develop along and west of the Divide tonight with snow level near 8000 ft. Majority of system moves into CO on Wednesday as precip increases along and west of the Divide through Noon with snow level remaining near 8000 ft. Precip begins to move into eastern CO Wednesday afternoon and evening as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft by Wednesday evening. As upper level system remains to our south, a cold front will push south across eastern CO Wednesday evening between 5 pm and 8 pm and lower snow level to 4000 ft behind front. Majority of precip will end by midnight Wednesday night. For amounts, mountains will pick up 6-14 inches along and west of the Divide above 8000 ft, and 4-8 inches from the Divide to the Front Range Crest with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories issued by NWS. For our foothills, looks like only a trace to 2 inches will be posisble for most areas. Areas farther east from I-25 into the plains may see higher precip amounts, but mostly as rain. Local roads should remain mostly wet below 8000 ft Wednesday, with some slush possible at higher elevations. Mountains roads will become difficult on Wednesday above 8000 ft.Conditions should clear overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thursday should be mostly clear but temps will return to near average values.

Next system will move quickly from the northwest across CO on Friday. Fairly weak system that should bring mostly light snow to the northern and central mountains with snow level 4000-5000 ft. Precip should remain along and west of the Front Range crest, with only a dusting possible in local foothills. Temps should remain near average on Friday.

Weekend weather looks dry with temps slightly above average statewide.

For next week, GFS keeps things mild and dry all week, while the ECMWF brings a system down from the north Monday afternoon with snow down to 4000 ft across much of eastern CO. ECMWF has much cooler temps Monday through Wednesday, with light snow possible again Wednesday. Not sure which model has a better handle on this yet, but dry conditions are expected through next Friday, then models suggest additional precip possible next weekend.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 11, 2018 8:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Late January

Mountains received 6-12 inches of snow yesterday, with some roads still closed (Loveland Pass) while foothills received a dusting. After a cool start today, mostly sunny skies will prevail with temps holding near seasonal norms. Next system will move quickly across CO tonight into Friday. Snow will develop over the northern and central mountains after midnight tonight and persist through about Noon on Friday. Temps will remain near average on Friday with sow level 5000-6000 ft. Mountains could see an additional 2-6 inches of snow, while foothills may see a dusting to an inch. Conditions should clear by Friday evening. Some gusty northwest winds will be possible over higher terrain of the mountains and foothills from tonight into Friday afternoon, creating some blowing and drifting of snow over the High Country.

Weekend weather looks dry as temps climb back above average each day, with Sunday being the warmer day.

For next week, expect mostly dry and mild weather through Friday. Some cold air may clip eastern CO on Monday, so temps cooler across eastern CO, but no precip expected. Temps will rise above average Tuesday through Friday. Next precip chances will be late Friday into next weekend. Models suggest a system will move across CO bringing precip to western CO Friday night then into eastern CO Saturday into Sunday morning with snow level near 5000 ft, but time will tell whether this system comes to fruition.

Author:  wxgeek [ Jan 12, 2018 1:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weather Outlook into Late January

Snow in the mountains, and blustery across eastern CO with northwest winds of 20-45 mph and some rain and snow showers across the eastern plains. Mountain areas have reported 2-4 inches of snow so far. Snow will be winding down this afternoon with some lingering flurries through this evening. Winds will begin to diminish this evening, but may remain gusty at higher elevations into Saturday. Temps today will remain near to slightly above average, but wind chill values will make it feel colder.

Weekend weather should be fairly nice with mostly sunny skies statewide, and temps should be 5-10 degrees above average each day.

Models have come back to the earlier ECMWF solution for Monday now, bringing some sold arctic air from the Northern Plains into eastern CO Sunday night into Monday. Arctic front will move into northeast CO early Monday morning near Dawn and move up against the Front Range Crest by afternoon. Arctic air will not make it into western CO, so temps there will remain above average. Across eastern CO, very cold temps will move over the region during the day on Monday with some light snow possible, especially up against the foothills where fog and freezing fog may reduce visibility and make roads slick on Monday. Temps will steadily drop during the day with overnight lows at or below zero by Tuesday morning. Currently only looks like very light snow accumulations, so a trace to possible an inch or two of snow in the foothills on Monday.

After a cold start Tuesday morning, temps should warm to near average under mostly sunny skies. A weak system will skirt to our north on Wednesday and bring a chance for some light precip to the northern and central mountains, but eastern CO should remain dry with temps slightly above average. Thursday and Friday next week look dry and mild statewide with temps well above average. Models then bring a stronger system into CO Friday night into Saturday. Decent mountain snow above 6000 ft Friday night then chance for snow across eastern CO Saturday as snow level lowers to near 4000 ft. Sunday looks to remain cool with snow showers possible for much of CO. Following week then looks to return to mostly dry and mild conditions.

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