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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into the New Year
Post Posted: Dec 26, 2017 4:44 pm 
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Fairly nice day across western CO, while eastern CO (up to 7000 ft in the foothills) was dealing with a cold arctic air mass. Breezy conditions with a strong northwest flow aloft over the state over the mountains and upper foothills with temps near average above the arctic air. Upper level pattern will remain about the same this week, so no big changes in our weather expected through Saturday. No precip is expected statewide through Saturday and temps will be near seasonal norms through Thursday, then temps are expected to warm above average Friday and Saturday.

For Sunday, models are at odds. GFS brings a new surge of arctic air into CO late Saturday into Sunday morning with some light snow while the ECMWF keeps arctic air to our north and east, so near average temps and no precip. Not sure which model has a better chance at this point, will need to wait and see future runs. GFS keeps arctic air entrenched over CO for New Years Day, while the ECMWF has near average temps across the state.

Models continue their divergence next week as the GFS keeps an upper ridge along the West Coast and a dry northwest flow over CO with no precip, while the ECMWF develops a closed upper low that passes to our south late Wednesday into Thursday that would bring precip to much of the state. Again, not sure which way things are likely to go at this point, will need to wait and see how the pattern develops next week.

With little if any precip expected through the end of 2017, we have received 11.5 inches of snow so far in December, which is below the average of 20 inches. For the season, we are now at 33.5 inches, which is below the average of 50 inches through December, so we are about 66% of average snowfall for the season. Unfortunately, when La Nina conditions are present, the winter months tend to be drier than average for much of CO, so I would expect January and February to remain below average snowfall, with the best hope of abundant snowfall in the March through May period.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into the New Year
Post Posted: Dec 27, 2017 9:00 am 
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Strong northwest winds will create very windy conditions in the mountains and foothills today with speeds in the 30-60 mph range. Winds will increase this afternoon and evening, then diminish some overnight but remain strong. These winds will scour out cold arctic air across eastern CO this afternoon allowing temps to rise above average for most areas, although wind chill values will remain quite low in windy areas of the mountains and foothills.

Pattern will remain similar through Saturday, so no precip expected statewide through Saturday, and another high wind event will be possible Thursday night through Friday evening. Temps will remain above average through Saturday for most areas.

Models now agree that an arctic front will move across eastern CO Saturday night into Sunday morning, drastically lowering temps along and east of the Divide Sunday into Monday. Some light snow will be possible as front moves south over area Saturday night into Sunday morning, but likely only a dusting and the potential for freezing drizzle is there from the foothills east. Temps Sunday will remain in the single digits to low teens for most of eastern CO including the foothills. Eastern CO will remain in the deep freeze on New Years Day as well. GFS brings warmer air to most of CO Tuesday, while the ECMWF keeps arctic air in place through next Thursday. Either way, no additional precip expected through the end of next week. GFS brings some precip across CO Sun Jan 7.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into the New Year
Post Posted: Dec 28, 2017 8:19 am 
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Strong northwest flow aloft over CO creating high winds in the mountains and foothills overnight. Winds will subside some during the day today but speeds will remain in the 25-50 mph range most of the day at higher elevations. Downslope winds will warm temps above average for most of the state today. Attention then turns to potential for a High Wind event tonight as NWS has issued a High Wind Watch. Models suggest favorable enhanced mountain wave conditions after midnight through Friday morning, with speeds of 30-60 mph likely and gusts to 75-80 mph possible. Winds will subside some during the day on Friday but remain in the 25-50 mph range much of the day at higher elevations. Unfortunately, these conditions are fairly common during a La Nina season, along with very cold temps over the Great Lakes and Northeast.

Saturday will also feature temps above average, along with more breezy conditions with northwest winds of 20-45 mph at higher elevations. As High pressure builds over the Northern Great Plains, an arctic front will push south over eastern CO Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temps will dramatically drop with below average temps on Sunday that will persists into New Years Day. Temps will be in the single digits to teens Sunday and Monday across most of eastern CO, while farther west temps will be near average in the mountains and western slope.

For next week, temps remain near average Tuesday and Wednesday with no precip expected statewide. Temps warm above average Thursday into Friday as conditions remain dry statewide. Models indicate cooler temps Saturday into Sunday as a cold front brings chances for snow to much of the state Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into the New Year
Post Posted: Dec 29, 2017 9:11 am 
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High Wind Warning will remain in effect until 3 pm today along the foothills. Strongest winds have been along and north of I-70 with 70-90 mph gusts in many locations. Winds should subside some this afternoon and tonight, but will remain gusty as strong northwest flow aloft remains over CO. Temps will also remain well above average today into Saturday across most of CO, leading to Red Flag Warnings for some areas of south central and southeast CO.

Models continue to push arctic air from the Northern Plains into eastern CO Saturday night after midnight. Model soundings showing the arctic air mass will only extend up to about 8000 to 9000 ft MSL, so areas west of the Front Range Crest will not experience arctic air and temps will remain above average. From the foothills east however, much colder temps will be in place Sunday into Monday, with coldest temps across far northeast CO. Temps should be in the 5-15 deg F range on Sunday and perhaps a tad warmer on Monday, but still much colder than average. Very little precip expected with this arctic intrusion, a dusting of snow for most areas is about it, maybe up to an inch in favored areas Saturday night into Sunday morning. Low clouds will accompany arctic air mass so foggy conditions may exist on the foothills between 6500 and 8000 ft with ice fog and reduced visibility.

The remainder of next week looks warmer and mostly dry. Temps should be back to near seasonal norms Tuesday through Thursday. A weak system will bring a chance for some light mountains snow Thursday with snow level near 6000 ft. Temps should rise a bit above average Friday and Saturday with dry conditions statewide. Next chance for precip will be Sunday Jan 7 into Monday Jan 8 as models suggest some Pacific moisture may make it into CO, which would result in warmer temps and higher snow levels.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into the New Year
Post Posted: Dec 30, 2017 5:37 pm 
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Another warm and windy day in the foothills. First surge of arctic air made it into eastern CO this morning, so temps from I-25 east were quite cold, while west of I-25 warm and windy conditions exist. Northwest winds will remain strong into tonight, then begin to dissipate some after midnight as next surge of arctic air moves in across eastern CO. This next surge is forecast to be deeper, up to about 9000-10,000 ft so much colder temps expected for most of the foothills Sunday into Monday. Some snow is expected in the mountains tonight into Sunday morning, mostly along and north of I-70 with 1-3 inches possible. Very little if any snow is expected in the foothills, with a dusting about as good as we will get. Low clouds will follow arctic front tonight, so foggy conditions may be possible in the foothills tonight into Sunday morning, and may cause roads to become icy. Temps expected to remain in the single digits to low teens Sunday east of the Front Range Crest, with near average temps in the mountains and western CO. After a cold start to the New Year on Monday, temps will warm some, but likely remain below average.

The remainder of next week looks dry and warm statewide as upper ridge moves into the Great Basin, so expect temps near average Tuesday and above average Wednesday through Saturday with no precip expected. Next chance for any precip will be next Sunday into Monday, but models do not anticipate anything significant at this time. Mostly dry conditions look to persist through Jan 10.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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