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 Post subject: Holiday Weather Outlook
Post Posted: Dec 17, 2017 2:04 pm 
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Partly to mostly sunny day across CO as temps remain on the cool side of average.

For the week ahead, we will start out dry and mild Monday through Wednesday as flat ridge remains over the Great Basin. No precip is expected across the state and temps will be near to slightly above average.

Models suggest a significant change in our weather pattern beginning on Thursday. Vigorous upper level trough will move into the Great Basin on Wednesday and develop a closed circulation as the system moves across CO on Thursday. As the system has become more intense, models have slowed progress slightly. Precip is now forecast to begin after midnight Wednesday night across western CO then move to near the Front Range Crest by early Thursday morning with snow level near 4000 ft, and spread across eastern CO during the day on Thursday as temps continue to drop, then begin to diminish Thursday evening. Models suggest 5-10 inches possible in the mountains, with 2-6 inches possible in our foothills, and 1-3 inches possible along the Urban Corridor and plains. Temps will be well below average Thursday with temps in the single digits Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday looks to be dry but cold as temps remain well below average.

Upper level ridge is forecast to move west back into the Pacific late next week into next weekend, which will allow cold systems to move from western Canada into CO. Next system is forecast to move down across CO next Saturday and will bring an extended period of very cold temps and light snow, with snow persisting into Sunday afternoon. Snow amounts will likely remain on the light side with such cold, with a few inches possible from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Very cold arctic air will move into CO next Saturday, and remain entrenched across CO into xmas day and possibly beyond. Temps will drop below zero next Saturday and then remain below zero through at least xmas day, and possibly through Wednesday Dec 27 as Polar Vortex drops down over south Central Canada bringing very cold arctic air to much of the western and central U.S. Forecast now brings snow to much of CO just before xmas day and with very cold temps much of CO will have some snow on the ground for xmas day.

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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Weather Outlook
Post Posted: Dec 18, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Nice start to the work week weather wise with mostly sunny skies and temps near average today. Skies will remain mostly sunny through Wednesday with no precip expected statewide, as temps will rise above average Tuesday and Wednesday. Enjoy the warmth, as the big chill is on the way.

The big change begins Thursday. Upper level trough with closed low circulation will move into the Great Basin on Wednesday and move across CO on Thursday. Cold front will move across CO Wednesday night bringing northerly upslope flow behind the front. Temps will also cool down from midnight Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. Precip will move into western CO west of Vail Pass Wednesday night and then move across all of CO Thursday morning through the day on Thursday with snow level below plains level. In the foothills, snow will begin around dawn on Thursday and continue into Thursday evening then dissipate by midnight. For snow amounts, most model output between 0.25 and 0.5 inches of liquid in the foothills, so expect 2-6 inches. Mountains could see 4-8 inches, with 1-3 inches along the Urban Corridor, and less than 2 inches across the plains. Temps will be in the teens during the day on Thursday, then drop to near zero by Friday morning. Friday will be dry but cold as temps remain in the 20's in the foothills.

Next surge of arctic air will move south into CO by Saturday morning with light snow and very cold temps. Snow begins sometime after midnight Friday night and persists through Saturday evening. Temps Saturday will start in the teens and lower to near zero by Saturday evening. Snow amounts look to remain on the light side due to cold arctic air, so generally 1-3 inches expected across most of eastern CO with perhaps up to 6 inches in the foothills. Snow should end by 6-9 pm Saturday, then temps will get very cold. Low temps Saturday night could drop to -10 to -25F and then remain below zero during the day on Sunday.

For xmas day, temps will moderate some but remain very cold as temps climb back into the teens. For the rest of next week, temps gradually warm each day and conditions are expected to remain dry statewide. Temps may get above freezing by Wednesday and perhaps back to seasonal norms late next week. Next chance for precip looks to be New Years weekend as another surge or arctic air moves south over CO, so more light snow and cold temps to end the year and could persist into the New Year.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Weather Outlook
Post Posted: Dec 19, 2017 12:27 pm 
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Nice day across the state today with temps above seasonal averages and mostly sunny skies. Wednesday will be similar, with temps even warmer than today, but some gusty westerly winds and some increasing clouds in the afternoon.

Latest models bring closed upper level low to near the 4 Corners by Thursday morning and then move it across southern CO during the day on Thursday. Cold front will drop south over CO Wednesday night bringing cooler temps and northerly upslope flow. Snow level will down to plains level, so this will be an all snow event for CO. Snow will begin to move into western CO Wednesday evening and will spread east overnight with snow moving into the foothills and Urban Corridor by early Thursday morning (3-6 am) with snow persisting during the day on Thursday, then diminish Thursday afternoon and ending Thursday evening. Heaviest snow in the foothills looks to be from 6 am through Noon, creating a slower and slick commute. Snow amounts look as follows:

Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-4 inches
Plains: 1-2 inches

Temps will be cold on Thursday mostly in the teens, then drop to near zero by Friday morning. Friday will begin mostly sunny and temps will warm to near seasonal norms.

Next system may move in a bit sooner according to latest models, with snow moving into northern CO Friday evening and moving south to near US 50 by Saturday morning. Light snow will continue through Saturday afternoon, then begin to clear. Temps Saturday will drop during the day, with high temp around midnight lowering to near zero by Saturday evening, and lowering to the -5 to -15 F range by Sunday morning, so pets and livestock will need special attention if outside. Models now brings temps up to the 0-10F range Sunday so not as cold as previous model runs, but still very cold.

Temps will continue to moderate for xmas day, with high temps in the teens under mostly sunny skies, so snow will be on the ground for most areas of CO.

For the week between xmas and New Year, latest models bring warmer air into CO on Tuesday with temps in the 30's in the foothills with dry conditions statewide. Models now move upper level ridge farther west into the Pacific, which will allow for systems to move into the Pacific Northwest and then down across CO. First system will bring some light snow and cooler temps to CO Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. For Friday into New Years Day models suggest near average temps and periods of light snow in the mountains will be possible.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Weather Outlook
Post Posted: Dec 20, 2017 3:51 pm 
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Near record warmth across the state today ahead of incoming system, with temps over 20 degrees above average in many areas. Gusty southwest winds will be across the state today before cold front moves south across the state tonight. As front moves south gusty northerly winds and much cooler temps will move across the state after midnight. Precip will move into western CO after midnight and close to the foothills and Urban Corridor by Dawn on Thursday. Precip will be all snow with snow level below 4000 ft. Snow will continue with light to moderate intensity through about Noon, then begin to diminish in the afternoon and dissipate by 6 pm. Snow amounts the same from yesterday with a Winter Weather Advisory over the mountains.

Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-3 inches
Plains: 1/2 to 2 inches

Driving could be slick across much of the state from early Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Temps will decrease during the day, with max temp for the day at midnight. Temps on Thursday will be in the teens to 20's so any melting of initial snow will quickly freeze underneath new snow. Conditions will clear Thursday night with low temps in the 0-10F range Friday morning.

Friday will be mostly sunny and temps will warm into the upper 20's to low 30's during the day.

For next system, timing differences in latest models. American models bring next system into the mountains Friday night with snow into eastern CO Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. ECMWF holds system off until Saturday evening into Sunday morning. ECMWF seems to be the outlier on this, so will go with faster start and end to snow on Saturday. For amounts, Mountains could see 2-6 inches while foothills and Urban Corridor/plains should be in the 1-3 inch range, but even colder temps. Latest models not as cold as earlier, but temps Saturday look to be in the teens to low 20's during the day, dropping to near zero by Sunday morning.

Temps look to remain on the cold side Sunday into xmas day, but not as cold as previously advertised. Temps Sunday and Monday should be in the upper 20's to low 30's with low temps in the teens, so not too bad.

For the remainder of next week, models have some differences. Overall upper ridge will remain off teh West Coast and allow some systems to slide down from the Gulf of Alaska over CO. GFS brings system across CO Tuesday night into Thursday with some light snow and more cold temps, while the ECMWF keeps temps near average Tuesday into Wednesday, then brings a system across Thursday with cold temps. Next Friday and Saturday look dry with cool temps, then more snow and colder temps possible Sunday into Monday to ring the New Year in.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Weather Outlook
Post Posted: Dec 21, 2017 1:46 pm 
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A more typical day to begin winter today. Light snow will continue into late afternoon/evening then clear overnight. Reports show 2-5 inches in the foothills with 1-2 inches across the Urban Corridor. Temps will continue to drop today down to the 0-10F range tonight. Friday looks mostly sunny as temps climb back to near freezing.

Models still have about a 12 hour time difference on snow Saturday. GFS and NAM bring snow to the mountains Friday night spreading into eastern CO during the day on Saturday, ending Saturday evening, while the ECMWF begins snow Saturday morning and continues snow into Sunday morning. Either way expect light snow on Saturday, possibly into Saturday night. Generally 1-3 inches for most areas including the mountains. Temps will be below average Saturday as snow level should remain below 4000 ft. Temps will drop again in the 0-10F range Saturday night into Sunday morning.

For Sunday, mostly sunny skies as temps climb to near freezing. Models now bring some moisture across CO Sunday night into xmas morning, so a dusting to an inch of snow seems possible over the mountains and into the foothills for a freshening of snow on xmas day. Temps will remain cool xmas day with temps in the upper 20's to low 30's.

Tuesday and Wednesday look dry statewide with temps near seasonal norms. Next chance for snow will be Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon as an upper level trough moves across CO. Generally light amounts expected at this time, so 1-3 inches for most areas. Temps will be below average Thursday into Friday, but mostly sunny skies on Friday. For New Years weekend, GFS keeps CO dry with average temps, while the ECMWF brings more snow and much cooler temps next weekend. GFS then brings more snow to CO to start the New Year. AT least a more typical winter pattern for CO as upper level ridge remains off the West Coast.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Weather Outlook
Post Posted: Dec 22, 2017 9:28 am 
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Beautiful start to the day today. After a cool start temps will warm to near freezing today in the foothills under mostly sunny skies.

Models beginning to come into better agreement on incoming system, but have the energy in two phases. First wave will move into the northern and central mountains tonight after midnight with snow level near 4000 ft. Strong northwest winds aloft will create blowing and drifting of now in mountains making travel difficult. Snow will continue in the mountains overnight and all day Saturday, so more tough travel through mountain passes on Saturday. Next surge of energy moves across northern CO Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This will bring renewed snow to the High Country and bring some light snow to eastern CO, with highest amounts along and north of I-70. In our foothills, models suggest we will mostly be skipped of any significant snow as flow aloft remains northwesterly. As second cold front moves south Saturday evening foothills may see a dusting to a couple of inches from 6 pm Saturday through midnight. Mountains will receive bulk of snow, with 8-14 inches possible over northern mountains and 5-10 inches for the central mountains. Northeast plains may see 1-2 inches as well. Temps on Saturday will be near freezing during the day, then drop as cold front moves across Saturday afternoon/evening lowering to the 0-10F range Sunday morning.

Sunday looks to remain mostly dry statewide, with a few flurries possible in the High Country. After a cool start temps will rise back to near freezing. Some Pacific moisture is now forecast to move into CO Sunday night into Monday morning with snow level near 6000 ft. This will make for some residents waking to fresh snow xmas morning. Mountain areas seem likely for this, while there is a chance for some light snow into the foothills through Monday morning, but amounts will be less than an inch in the foothills, with a few inches possible in the mountains. Temps xmas day should be near seasonal norms,low to mid 30's for the foothills as conditions clear in the afternoon.

For the remainder of next week, Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain dry statewide, but temps will remain near to below average each day. Next chance for precip will be Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon as system moves across CO from the Pacific Northwest. Should be an all snow event as snow level remains below 4000 ft, so temps will remain below average on Thursday. Snow amounts currently look to be several inches in the mountains, and 1-3 inches in the foothills.

Friday through Sunday look mostly dry statewide, with a few lingering flurries in the mountains on Friday and cool temps Friday. Temps warm to above average Saturday and Sunday next week as we prepare to usher in the New Year. Models suggest New Years Day will be dry and mild statewide as well and remain that way into Tuesday. Longer range models suggest a chance for more snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Weather Outlook
Post Posted: Dec 23, 2017 9:43 am 
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Blustery day across most of CO today, with snow along and west of the Front Range Crest. Northwest winds of 30-60 mph will impact much of the mountains and foothills today as snow increases in the mountains during the day today. Lots of winter advisories in the mountains, and traction laws are in effect on most mountain roads this morning, so expect tough travel conditions with blowing and drifting snow in the High Country today. Temps will get near freezing in the foothills, with wind chill values 10-20 degrees lower. Models keep snow going in the mountains through tonight with 8-14 inches possible north of I-70, and 5-10 inches possible over the central mountains. Cold front will move south across eastern CO this evening, between 6 pm and midnight and this will be the best chance for snow from the foothills to the eastern plains. Due to northwest flow, amounts will be light in the foothills, generally a dusting to an inch or two is all we can expect. Northeast plains may see 1-3 inches, with lesser amounts over the remainder of eastern CO. Temps will lower to 0-10F tonight into Sunday morning, but northwest winds will remain strong in the mountains and foothills overnight creating dangerous wind chill values. Snow should end most areas after midnight tonight.

Sunday should be another cool and blustery day for most of the state as temps remain below average. Northwest winds will persist through most of the day in the 15-35 mph range in the foothills with higher gusts over higher terrain. Most areas should remain dry until after 6 pm Sunday, when more snow will begin to move into western CO with snow level near 6000 ft. Snow will intensify Sunday night into Monday morning along and west of the Front Range Crest with an additional 2-6 inches possible in the mountains. Foothills may see a dusting of new snow Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow should mostly end by Noon on Monday in the mountains with dry conditions elsewhere. Temps will remain below seasonal norms as winds finally begin to diminish.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain dry statewide with temps near to slightly below average. A weak system will skirt to our north Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and bring some light snow to the mountains mostly along and north of I-70, and a slight chance for some light snow in the foothills. Precip should be done by Noon on Thursday and temps will remain on the cool side of average.

Models suggest the period Thursday through New Years Day will remain dry across the state with temps near seasonal norms. Next chance for precip looks to be the Tuesday through Thursday period of the first week of January.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Holiday Weather Outlook
Post Posted: Dec 24, 2017 1:15 pm 
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Nice day today for xmas eve after 1-3 inches of snow yesterday to freshen things up. Mostly sunny skies statewide today but some gusty northwest winds at higher elevations will persist today creating some blowing and rifting of snow in the High Country. Temps will remain below average today but sun will provide for some melting. Next system will move into western CO after midnight and bring additional snow to the mountains. Winter Storm Warnings go into effect after 11 pm tonight through Monday evening for 6-18 inches of new snow in the mountains. Snow level will be in the 5000-6000 ft range through Monday evening. Vast majority of snow will remain along and west of the Front Range Crest, but foothill areas may see some light snow tonight into Monday morning, generally a dusting to an inch or so with better chances farther west. Most of eastern CO will remain dry xmas day.

As upper ridge builds back along the West Coast, models now keep the periood from Tuesday through New Years Day dry across CO. Temps should remain near seasonal norms. There may be a few flurries in the mountains late next week, but not much if any snow expected for the foothills and eastern CO. Models suggest percip will be possible to start the New Year from Tuesday into Thursday the first week of January.

No matter how you celebrate this time of year, I hope everyone is able to enjoy with family or friends.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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