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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Mid December
Post Posted: Dec 4, 2017 1:11 pm 
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Location: Conifer Mountain
After some light snow overnight, mostly sunny skies, cool temps and gusty northerly winds today. Northern mountains picked up 6-12 inches of light dry snow overnight, while foothill areas received a dusting to an inch or two. Temps will remain below average today and northerly winds will remain strong then subside this evening, which will allow temps to drop overnight into the teens for most foothill areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday will remain cool, with temps at or slightly below average, but most areas should remain dry. Northerly winds will just be in the breezy category for most areas, although higher elevations will see stronger winds. On Thursday, a weak system slides down the east side of high amplitude upper ridge along the West Coast which will bring a chance for some light showers to CO. Best precip chances will be over the northern and central mountains, but foothill areas could see some light snow Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Mountains could see 1-3 inches while foothill areas likely will see only a dusting to perhaps an inch of new snow. Temps will remain below average on Thursday. Northerly winds could also be quite strong on Thursday into Friday morning with speeds of 30-60 mph possible across higher elevations.

Friday into the weekend, upper ridge shifts east slightly into the northern Great Basin which will create a warmer northwest flow aloft over CO and conditions will remain dry. Temps should rise above average Friday through Sunday under mostly sunny skies.

For next week, upper level ridge will remain along the West Coast and keep a dry northwest flow aloft over CO. No precip expected Monday through Wednesday and temps should remain above seasonal norms. Later next week, models suggest a chance for a system to slide down teh east side of upper ridge and bring better precip chances to CO late Thursday into Friday, then more precip chances next weekend. None of these systems look overly wet, mostly will just bring more cold air and some light snow to higher elevations. Of course, things can always change and a more significant system could develop if the upper ridge were to become unstable and a more intense upper low could form over the Great Basin and into CO. Will keep my hopes alive we will actually have some snow on the ground for the Holidays.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid December
Post Posted: Dec 7, 2017 9:51 am 
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Location: Conifer Mountain
Cold and breezy day across the state today as temps remain well below average, and gusty northerly winds lowering wind chill values. A weak upper level system will slide over CO this afternoon into this evening and bring decent chances for snow over the northern and central mountains where 1-4 inches of new snow will be possible. In the foothills, we may see some light snow that could create a dusting to an inch of new snow over some areas, including the Palmer Divide. Snow should end after 9 pm with clearing and more cold temps overnight.

The primary weather pattern over the U.S. is not expected to change much over the next week. Large and high amplitude blocking upper level ridge will remain along the West Coast through the end of next week, which puts a deep upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. This pattern will keep the Western U.S. dry and mild, whereas areas east of the Rockies will remain cold with precip possible. This pattern does not show signs of breaking down until just before xmas. Thus, until then, expect more of the same across CO. Our state will remain mostly dry the remainder of this week as well as all of next week into next weekend. Temps will begin to moderate on Friday becoming closer to average. This weekend into next week temps are expected to be above average, and breezy to gusty northwesterly winds will be possible at times. Fire danger will remain elevated for this time of year due to very dry conditions and lack of snow cover. Models suggest the weekend of xmas the pattern may break down and be replaced with a more zonal pattern, but my experience indicates these blocking patterns usually persist longer than models indicate, and can last weeks to months at times. La Nina conditions are typically associated with these types of blocking upper level patterns, so the bad news for us is that this type of pattern could persist much of the winter season. Hopefully that is not the case this year and things will chance late December into January. If it does, we may have to wait until Spring for any significant precipitation.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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