It is currently Dec 11, 2019 4:07 pm 






Reply to topic  [ 8 posts ] 

Previous topic | Next topic 

  Print view

Offline 
 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 25, 2017 12:34 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 3246
Location: Conifer Mountain
Yet another mostly sunny and warm day across CO. Temps today will again be above average by 10-20 degrees across the state as winds have diminished from Friday's gusty conditions. Expect temps to be even warmer on Sunday as upper level ridge axis moves over CO. Temps will approach and possibly break records over many areas of CO on Sunday.

For the week ahead, Monday will start out with more near to record breaking temps. Upper level trough will move into the Great Basin on Monday which will increase southwest flow aloft over CO. This combination will create high fire danger across much of eastern CO Monday afternoon with Red Flag conditions expected in many areas. Latest models are in pretty good agreement on track of incoming system, with upper level trough moving along the CO/NM border during the day on Tuesday. As system remains an open upper trough and moves along fairly quickly, snow amounts will be limited, with heaviest amounts along and south of I-70 in mountain areas. Precip looks to move into western CO Monday night and move into the foothills by about dawn Tuesday morning with snow level 5000-6000 ft. Precip should mostly be done by about Noon on Tuesday with clearing by afternoon. For snow amounts, looks like 3-7 inches possible in the Southwest Mountains with lower amounts in other mountain areas. For our foothills, currently looks like 1-3 inches possible Tuesday above 6000 ft. If current timing holds, I don't believe foothills roads will be adversely impacted as heaviest snow will occur after morning commute begins, and roads should be clear by the evening commute on Tuesday. Also with such warm temps ahead of system, most snow will melt on paved roads, with some snow on secondary roads Tuesday morning.

Latest models now keep next system mostly to our north, so upper trough skirts to our north Wednesday night into Thursday, with only some light snow across the northern mountains expected. Temps on Wednesday will again be above average, then cooler air Thursday in wake of system will bring temps down close to seasonal norms. Dry conditions are expected Friday and Saturday as temps warm back above average. Sunday temps should be near average as clouds begin to move into western CO ahead of a closed upper low forecast to develop over southern CA. Models are not quite certain what will transpire the following week, as ECMWF keeps closed upper low over over SoCal through the middle of the week and CO mostly dry, while the GFS brings a new upper trough from the Pacific Northwest over CO by Thursday with cold temps and snow. We will have to wait and see how things are resolved. The end result for November was to have temps well above average statewide and for most areas to have below average precipitation. Hopefully we see a change in December.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 26, 2017 2:44 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 3246
Location: Conifer Mountain
Record warmth across portions of CO today, as Denver has already eclipsed the old record for the date of 72 degrees with 73. Breezy conditions in some mountain and foothills areas through this evening. Expect even warmer temps on Monday as southwest flow aloft increases and adds to downslope warming. Many record high temps will be broken across the state on Monday with highs in the low to mid 70's across eastern CO. Also expect gusty southwest winds of 25-50 mph with higher gusts during the day on Monday, which will increase fire danger. Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday across portions of eastern CO including sections of the Palmer Divide. Upper level trough currently along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin on Monday which will bring precip into western CO Monday night with snow level near 7000-8000 ft. Precip will move east to near the Front Range Crest by Tuesday morning and then move into southeast CO Tuesday afternoon as snow level lowers to 6000-7000 ft. Majority of precip will be along and south of I-70 and west of the Front Range Crest. Southwest and Central mountains could see 2-5 inches of snow, while foothill areas may see a dusting to an inch or two by Tuesday morning. With such warm temps expect roads to remain mostly wet for the Tuesday morning commute, so no big problems expected. Conditions should improve through the day Tuesday as temps will be below average.

Wednesday will start out mostly sunny, then a fast moving upper level trough will skirt to our north and bring increasing clouds and a chance for some precip across the northern and central mountains Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with snow level near 6000 ft. Currently no precip is expected in the foothills from this system. Wednesday temps will be above average before cold front moves through Wednesday evening lowering temps.

Thursday through Sunday looks dry statewide with temps above average.

For next week, models not in very good agreement at this time. GFS brings a closed upper low into the Great Basin on Monday and then across CO on Tuesday which would bring cold temps and snow to much of CO, while the ECMWF keeps this closed upper low over southern CA early next week and becomes a cut off upper low off the SoCal coast which would keep precip much farther west of CO. While I like the idea of cold and snow, I prefer the ECMWF solution from a meteorological standpoint, so will have to wait and see how things evolve.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 27, 2017 1:54 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 3246
Location: Conifer Mountain
Denver has smashed the record temp for the day with 80 degrees recorded today, eclipsing the old record of 74 for the date. 80 also ties the record temp for the month of November, doing this on the 27th is impressive. Temps are some 30 degrees above average today. Gusty southwest winds are combining with high temps and low RH values to create dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the state, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for most of southeast CO including the Palmer Divide area. Clouds are beginning to move into western CO ahead of upper level trough over the Great Basin. Models are in good agreement of keeping most of the energy in this upper trough across southern CO and northern NM. Precip is expected to move into western CO around midnight tonight with snow level near 8000 ft. Majority of precip remains south of I-70 with heaviest precip south of US 50. Some light precip will move into the foothills between 3 am and 6 am as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft by dawn. Precip will move into southeast CO by Noon, so pretty short lived precip for most areas. Mountain areas could see 2-5 inches with heaviest amounts across southwest CO, while foothill areas should only expect a trace to 2 inches south of I-70. With such warm temps today, expect most snow should melt on major roadways, but some slush may be possible on secondary roads above 8000 ft. Conditions should clear Tuesday afternoon as temps remain on the cool side of average for a change.

On Wednesday, a fast moving upper trough will skirt to our north, creating some gusty westerly winds, but no precip expected. Temps will climb back above seasonal norms on Wednesday. Thursday through Sunday looks dry statewide as temps remain above average with zonal flow aloft over CO.

For next week, models have not yet agreed upon a solution. GFS brings an open upper trough across CO on Monday with cooler temps and some mountain snow on Monday, then keeps CO dry through the end of the week with cool temps through Wednesday, then warm temps late next week. The ECMWF meanwhile digs a closed upper level low over southern CA on Monday and keeps a cut off upper low over SoCal through late next week forming a Rex Block along the West Coast. ECMWF solution would bring precip to much of CO Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon with snow level near 6000 ft then keep CO mostly dry through the end of next week with temps near average. We will have to see how things evolve, but the bottom line is that no significant moisture appears to be in the forecast for CO through early to mid December.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 28, 2017 11:57 am 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 3246
Location: Conifer Mountain
After some early morning freezing drizzle/fog, skies should be clearing this afternoon across most of the state. Currently precip is confined to the southeast portion of the state and heading east rapidly. Temps will remain slightly below average today after our record warmth yesterday.

The remainder of the work week should remain dry statewide as temps climb back above average Wednesday through Friday as flow aloft become westerly. Winds may be gusty at times over higher terrain, but nothing serious.

For the weekend, upper level tough moves along the West Coast while an upper level ridge builds over CO. This will create dry conditions with temps remaining above average Saturday and Sunday.

Models indicate our weather will take a significant turn towards colder temps and better snow chances early next week. GFS and ECMWF have come into much better alignment towards the previous ECMWF solution. Models have upper level trough from the West Coast digging into the Great Basin on Monday, and then becoming a closed upper low near the CA/AZ border on Tuesday and moving into southern NM by Wednesday. The eventual track and intensity of this upper level low will determine how much snow various areas of CO will receive, but it appears likely that CO will have much colder temps Monday through Wednesday next week, with periods of snow possible. The amount and duration of snow will depend on the track of the upper low.

Models suggest drier conditions will be in place Thursday and Friday next week as temps remain below average. For next weekend, both models have strong upper level High off the West Coast, which puts CO under a cold northerly flow aloft. GFS brings an arctic intrusion of cold air and snow into CO next weekend, so it appears December will feature some more typical winter conditions than we saw in November.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 29, 2017 1:27 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 3246
Location: Conifer Mountain
Warm and breezy day across much of the state today. Westerly winds of 25-50 mph will be possible at higher elevations over the mountains and foothills through this evening. Temps are running 5-15 deg above average today.

Thursday through Sunday Saturday will feature more dry weather across CO with temps remaining 5-15 deg above average, so a warm and dry start to December.

Models continue to evolve the solution for next week. Latest GFS and ECMWF now bring an open upper trough into the Pacific Northwest this weekend, and move this upper trough quickly across CO on Monday. Gone are the references to a closed or cut off upper low. The result of this change is that any precip for CO will be brief and light Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. A significant drop in temperatures is still on track with a cold front pushing south across CO Sunday evening, and a cold northerly flow aloft remaining over CO most of next week as upper ridge builds along the West Coast. For precip amounts, GFS has little to none across most of CO, while the ECMWF brings some precip to the mountains Sunday night, but not much precip elsewhere. Mountains could see 2-5 inches, while our foothills may see a trace to an inch or so at best. By Monday evening we will just be left with cold temps.

The remainder of next week now looks mostly dry under this northerly flow aloft, but temps should remain below average through most of next week. We may see brief periods of light snow as disturbances move down the east side of the upper ridge and bring some moisture to eastern CO, but this pattern typically only produces very light precip in the dry and cold northerly flow aloft. Models suggest this pattern will remain in place the following week as well, thus no significant snow is in the forecast for most of CO through the middle of December.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early December
Post Posted: Nov 30, 2017 12:32 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 3246
Location: Conifer Mountain
Yet another sunny and mild day across the state. Temps a little cooler than yesterday as weak and dry cold front passed through last night, but will still be above average today. Thursday through Saturday will also be mostly sunny statewide as temps warm to well above seasonal norms by 5-15 degrees each day.

Sunday will be another warm and breezy day across the state as southwest winds aloft increase ahead of incoming upper trough, thus fire danger will again be elevated across much of eastern CO. Clouds will increase in the afternoon, with some showers possible across far western CO with snow level near 10,000 ft. Models have come in pretty good agreement on incoming system today, but still some differences on timing and amount of precip. Upper level trough will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin on Sunday, and across CO on Monday. At the surface, cold front will move across CO Sunday night into Monday morning and bring decent precip to mountain areas along and west of the Divide as snow level lowers to 5000-6000 ft by Monday morning. GFS delays precip across eastern CO until during the day on Monday, while ECMWF brings only very light precip early Monday morning to eastern CO. ECMWF would bring less than an inch of snow to foothills areas, while the GFS would bring several inches including areas of the plains. Given system trajectory, ECMWF looks more reasonable at this point for precip, but will continue to monitor. Mountain areas could see 5-10 inches of snow from Sunday night through Monday evening. Snow level will lower below 4000 ft during the day on Monday as cold air moves across CO with very cold temps expected Monday night into Tuesday morning with temps in the teens in foothill areas. Precip should be done in most areas by Monday evening.

For the remainder of next week, expect dry conditions statewide with cold temps Tuesday into Wednesday. Depending on position of upper ridge late next week, GFS keeps temps cold, while ECMWF moderates temps as it moves upper ridge farther east into the Great Basin, while GFS keeps it along the West Coast. GFS would be the preferred climatological position, so will have to wait and see.

The following week GFS keeps upper ridge off the West Coast which keeps CO under cold northerly flow aloft with some snow possible during the week as systems move down the east side of the upper ridge. The ECMWF keeps a Rex Block along the West Coast which would keep CO slightly warmer and absent any precip. The month of November will close with 6.5 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain, about half our average snowfall of 14 inches. For the season, we now stand at 22 inches, so 71% of our average through November of 31 inches.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early December
Post Posted: Dec 1, 2017 1:49 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 3246
Location: Conifer Mountain
Warm, dry and breezy day across much of the state today as temps remain above average. Brisk westerly flow aloft will keep some gusty westerly winds in the mountains and foothills at times through this evening. Saturday will see temps even higher with temps 10-20 degrees above average as dry conditions persist across the state. The average high temp in Conifer this time of year is ab out 39 deg F, and temps will be in the low 50's this weekend.

Sunday will be another warm and breezy day before a big change in temps occur. Clouds will increase by Sunday afternoon and some showers will be possible across western CO with snow level 9000-10,000 ft. Upper level trough and associated cold front will move from west to east through CO Sunday night into Monday morning. Mountains will receive decent snowfall Sunday night as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Snow will push east to about the Front Range Crest by dawn Monday morning, then model suggest snow will move east into eastern CO during the day on Monday behind cold front as snow level lowers to plains level. Latest models suggest mountains will see 4-10 inches of snow, while foothill areas may see 1-3 inches, and a trace to 2 inches will be possible over the Urban Corridor and eastern plains through Monday evening. Snow should end statewide by 6 pm Monday with cold temps in the wake. For travel impacts, mountains will have winter driving conditions Sunday night through Monday afternoon. In the foothills, snow looks to begin just after 6 am, so I do not believe it will create adverse conditions until about 9 am, then roads should be mostly clear by the return commute as snow ends between Noon and 3 pm.

For the remainder of next week, dry conditions are expected but temps will be cold, well below average as temps are likely to remain below freezing through Thursday as cold northerly flow aloft remains over CO. Upper ridge axis will be along the West Coast and deep upper trough will be over the eastern U.S. where temps will be very cold for much of the Nation. Models suggest upper ridge axis shifts farther east by late next week into next weekend, which will bring temps back to near average over CO and keep conditions dry. The following week models move upper ridge axis farther west off the West Coast which would allow colder air back into CO along with some light snow at times as systems move down the east side of upper ridge. Then models break down blocking ridge along the West Coast and bring a more zonal flow across the western U.S. which may bring better precip chances to CO, especially the mountains. It has been an unusually dry start to the ski season across most of the U.S. this season, with Washington State being about the only place to receive near average snowfall. We can blame this on La Nina for now.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early December
Post Posted: Dec 3, 2017 3:59 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 5:52 pm
Posts: 3246
Location: Conifer Mountain
Warm and windy day across the state as temps are 10-20 degrees above average across the state. Southwest winds of 25-50 mph with higher gusts will impact the mountains and foothills today into Monday morning as winds turn westerly but remain strong. Upper level trough currently over the Great Basin will move across CO tonight into Tuesday morning. Associated cold front will move across western CO this evening and into eastern CO by Monday morning. A few light showers over western CO this afternoon with snow level near 10,000 ft. Bulk of precip will move across CO this evening and tonight to about the Front Range Crest by morning as snow level lowers to plains level by morning. Heaviest snow will be over the northern mountains north of I-70 where 2-6 inches of snow will be possible. Models now keep most areas east of h Front Range Crest dry, so foothills will be impacted by strong winds, but little if any snow expected, with a possible dusting in some western foothill areas about it. Temps will be much colder after front passes, and strong winds will make for a blustery day on Monday, but precip should mostly end statewide by Noon. Travel in the mountains will be difficult tonight along and north of I-70 due to snow and strong winds.

The remainder of the week should remain dry statewide. Temps look to remain below average Tuesday through Thursday as CO remains under cool northerly flow aloft as upper level ridge builds along the West Coast. By late this week into the weekend, upper level ridge shifts east over the Inter-Mountain West which will raise temps close to or slightly above average.

For next week, upper ridge remains over the West Coast which is expected to keep CO dry with temps above average through Dec 18. Sadly, little if any precip is expected over CO through mid December.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 8 posts ] 

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:

Who is online

In total there are 16 users online :: 1 registered, 0 hidden and 15 guests (based on users active over the past 60 minutes)
Most users ever online was 2823 on Mar 26, 2012 6:26 pm

Users browsing this forum: CodeOfVim and 15 guests





Powered by phpBB © 2000-2012 phpBB Group

This website copyright © 1994-2019 by
Pinecam.com is a member of the Platte Canyon Area Chamber of Commerce