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 Post subject: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 19, 2017 12:17 pm 
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Temps will return to near average values today under mostly sunny skies, with some mountain wave clouds near the foothills.

For the week ahead, little if any precip is expected Monday through Sunday. A few mountain showers will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning mostly over the northern mountains with snow level near 8000 ft. Temps Monday will be near average, then slightly cooler on Tuesday as system skirts to our north. Upper level ridge will build over the Rockies Wednesday through Sunday creating mostly sunny skies statewide and temps will rise well above average through Sunday. For those traveling over the holiday period, you should have very nice weather across CO.

Models keep dry and mild weather pattern over CO early next week, then finally brings some precip into CO Wednesday into the weekend as upper level ridge shifts farther east. Hopefully this will allow additional systems to deposit moisture across CO as December begins.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 20, 2017 2:48 pm 
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Partly to mostly cloudy day across CO today as high clouds stream over top of upper ridge to our west, and enhanced mountain wave clouds due to brisk northwest flow aloft over the state. Temps will once again be above average today statewide. Brisk winds will be present over much of the mountains and foothills today into tonight with speeds generally in the 25-35 mpg range with gusts to 50-60 mph possible at times. Latest models have better precip chances tonight into Tuesday morning for the mountains, with better precip chances in the foothills and adjacent plains Tuesday morning. System will dive down from the northwest and bring good precip chances to the central and northern mountains from about midnight tonight through Noon Tuesday. Snow level will be 7000-8000 ft overnight and around 8000 ft Tuesday with 1-4 inches possible in the mountains. Models suggest banded type precip will be possible Tuesday morning from the foothills east into the plains until about Noon, but mostly only light precip expected with a dusting to a half inch of snow possible in the western foothills. Temps will be near to slightly below average Tuesday.

For the rest of the week, upper ridge build along the Rockies keeping any precip well to our north through at least Sunday. Temps will be well above average Wednesday through Sunday, with temps some 10-20 degrees above average, and low temps will remain above freezing which is very unusual for late November. Good travel weather for holiday travelers, not so great for skiers.

For next week, models bring a chance for precip Tuesday into CO, mostly along and west of the Divide. GFS currently stronger with this system, but neither models brings much if any precip to eastern CO. GFS brings some mountain precip into CO Wednesday into Thursday while ECMWF keeps CO dry through Friday of next week. Overall, it appears November will end as a drier and warmer than average month across most of CO. SO far 4.5 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain in November, and our average is around 15 inches so we will likely be below our average snowfall through the end of November, which is typical for a La Nina year. Our biggest hope is the negative MJO that has been over the eastern Pacific most of November will shift to a positive phase sometime in December which would bring better precip chances to CO.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 21, 2017 1:56 pm 
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Banded precip associated with strong upper level jetstream and cold front brought up to 2 inches of snow to foothill areas above 8000 ft this morning, and up to 4 inches of snow over the mountains. Precip has mostly dissipated except for a few lingering flurries in the mountains. Temps will be near seasonal norms today before the warmup begins.

Dry and warm conditions will move into Colorado Wednesday as upper ridge build over CO and persist through Monday with high temps some 10-20 degrees above average, and low temps remaining above freezing in most foothill areas. Thanksgiving looks to be the warmest day of the week and temps may approach record levels. No precip expected statewide through Monday, so good travel weather for the Thanksgiving holiday.

For next week, models bring a weak cold front through CO Monday night into Tuesday morning which will cool temps back to near average Tuesday. Some light precip will be possible in the northern and central mountains with snow level down to 5000 ft Monday night, but only a few inches at most expected.

Wednesday and Thursday next week look dry statewide with temps near to slightly above average. Late next week into next weekend models suggest slightly better precip chances across the state with cooler temps.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 22, 2017 2:11 pm 
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Pretty nice day across the state today as upper level ridge builds to our west. CO still under a brisk northwest flow aloft, so some gusty northwest winds possible in the mountains and foothills today. Temps will be well above average statewide. A few mountain flurries will be possible, but nothing significant.

Thanksgiving will feature mostly sunny skies statewide with some high clouds drifting by, and temps will approach record levels in many parts of the state. Upper 60's to low 70's will be common across much of eastern CO, with 60's in the foothills. Across the nation, pretty tranquil weather with some precip across the Pacific Northwest and across Florida as a tropical disturbance moves across northern FL from the Gulf of Mexico.

Friday through Monday will remain dry statewide as upper level ridge remains in place over the Rockies. Temps Friday will lower a few degrees from Thursday but remain 5-15 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance may bring a few mountains showers to the northern and central mountains Friday afternoon with snow level around 10,000 ft. Temps Saturday will be slightly cooler but will remain above average under mostly sunny skies. Temps rise back up Sunday and Monday and will approach record levels as dry conditions prevail across the state. Some gusty southwest winds could develop in the foothills late on Monday.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, GFS brings an open upper trough across CO with some mountain snow and much cooler temps. The ECMWF meanwhile develops a closed upper low near the 4 Corners and creates a good upslope snowstorm across eastern CO Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. We will have to wait and see how models handle this moving forward, but some hope for additional moisture is there.

Models then keep CO dry Thursday into next weekend as temps remain near seasonal norms.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Thanksgiving Week Forecast
Post Posted: Nov 24, 2017 4:59 pm 
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Warm and breezy day across much of the state today with northwest winds of 25-50 mph across much of the mountains and foothills. Temps remain well above average statewide. A cold front associated with a upper level trough skirting to our north will bring showers to north central and northeast CO this afternoon and evening. Majority of precip will be along and north of I-70, with some showers in our foothills possible, but precip will be light. Snow level will be 9000-10,000 ft with perhaps 1-2 inches of snow possible in the mountains.

Saturday will be cooler with temps closer to or slightly above seasonal norms, with lighter winds than today. No precip is expected statewide as upper level ridge builds over the Great Basin. On Sunday, upper level ridge axis will be over CO, so temps will be well above average once again with light winds, so a very nice late November day.

For the week ahead, CO will see a couple of chances for precip. On Monday, upper level closed low will dig into the Great Basin and create brisk southwest flow aloft over CO, which will create windy conditions in the mountains and foothills, and southwest flow will raise temps well above average with warming downslope component. Upper low moves into the 4 Corners region Tuesday morning then moves across southern CO during the day. This track should bring some precip to eastern CO including the foothills by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Currently only looks like 1-3 inches will be possible in the foothills above 8000 ft. Conditions should clear by Wednesday morning, but another system will be close behind and move down over CO from the northwest Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Snow level with this system will be much lower at plains level and could bring 2-5 inches of snow to the mountains and foothills, with lighter amounts for the Urban Corridor and plains. Temps will be much cooler Wednesday into Thursday, feeling much more like late November normally feels in CO. Friday into Sunday looks dry statewide with temps returning to near average values.

Models suggest additional precip chances will be possible the following week as systems drop down from the Gulf of Alaska into CA and then across the Desert Southwest and into CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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