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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Early November
Post Posted: Oct 27, 2017 2:37 pm 
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Cold day across eastern CO after a brief dusting of snow yesterday. Reports show generally 1-2 inches in local foothills, with up to 4 inches in foothills north of I-70. Temps will remain below average today and another cold night on tap with low temps again in the teens to low 20's.

After a cool start Saturday, mostly sunny skies expected statewide with temps remaining shy of seasonal norms. Sunday will also be sunny with temps warming back to average, so a pretty nice weekend ahead.

For next week, another system similar to yesterday is forecast to move from western Canada into the Northern Plains and clip CO. A cold front is expected to move into eastern CO Sunday night into Monday morning bringing much cooler temps along with some light snow by Monday morning to much of eastern CO with snow level in the 5000-6000 ft range. At this time, snow amounts look to remain very light, generally less than an inch or two in most areas as light snow may persist much of the day on Monday, and may extend into Tuesday morning. ECMWF has a secondary disturbance reinforcing precip Tuesday morning, but US models lack this feature so not much confidence in that for now. As precip may start overnight Sunday, roads at higher elevations may have some light accumulation or slush for the Monday morning commute. Roads should be mostly wet for the remainder of the day.

For the rest of the week, cold day on Tuesday but dry, then temps warm back near seasonal norms the rest of the week and conditions should remain dry statewide through Friday.

Saturday looks mild and dry, then some precip may be possible Sunday night into Monday across western CO as upper level pattern changes. A long wave upper level trough is forecast to develop along the West Coast and this will allow a series of Pacific storms to move from the West Coast into CO November 6-10. Areas along and west of the Divide will receive the majority of moisture in this scenario, but eastern CO may see some precip during that week with snow levels generally near 8000 ft.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early November
Post Posted: Oct 29, 2017 1:13 pm 
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Beautiful Fall day across the state today with abundant sunshine and temps above seasonal norms. Winter arrives tonight....

Another Alberta Clipper will bring a upper level trough into the Northern Plains tonight into Monday, and associated cold front will move south across eastern CO tonight bringing much colder temps to eastern CO along with northeast upslope flow which will usher in low clouds and some lights precip. Cold front will move south across northern CO tonight, and precip will follow moving south of the I-70 corridor from the Divide east between 3 am and 6 am, thus expect winter driving conditions for the Monday morning commute. Precip will be mostly light snow but we could also see some freezing drizzle. With warm temps today, expect most precip to melt off primary roadways, but there could be some slick spots at higher elevations and over bridges and elevated road surfaces. Snow level will be near 6000 ft by 6 am lowering to 4000-5000 ft by Noon on Monday. Temps will basically drop throughout the day on Monday. For snow amounts, looking at generally less than 1 inch for most areas, maybe up to 2 inches in favored areas in the foothills. Snow will begin to diminish Monday afternoon and should move south of US 50 Monday night into Tuesday morning. Low clouds and fog may remain in foothills areas Monday night into Tuesday morning with some freezing fog, so roads could remain slick in areas.

Weather should improve Tuesday although temps will remain well below average. The rest of the week Wednesday through Saturday looks to remain dry statewide with temps well above average. Next chance for precip in CO looks to be next Sunday into Monday as an upper level trough moves into the Great Basin and across CO. Majority or precip should remain along and west of the Divide with snow level 7000-8000 ft. The rest of that week now looks mostly dry across CO with temps near average into the following weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Early November
Post Posted: Oct 30, 2017 1:34 pm 
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As cold front moved south across eastern CO last night, mix of freezing drizzle and light snow coated much of the area. High pressure in the northern Great Plains is keeping a push of cold air from the northeast into eastern CO, while west of the Divide more sun and warmer temps. As low clouds interact with the foothills, fog with below freezing temps will keep roads and vegetation coated with ice. AS we move into this evening, a weak upper level system from the southwest will interact with a second weak disturbance moving down from the northwest over CO. The result will be an increase in precip across much of southwest CO and this will extend into the mountains and foothills overnight. Primary precip will be snow in the mountains with snow level near 8000 ft, but as low clouds and cold temps remain entrenched along the foothills, we could see a mix of freezing fog, freezing drizzle and light snow overnight into Tuesday morning. Mountain areas may see 4-8 inches of snow overnight into Tuesday morning with heaviest snow over the southwest and central mountains. Area roads are likely to remain slick tonight into Tuesday morning, so expect a slower than average and slick commute again on Tuesday morning, as well as the return commute this evening. Primary roads with treatment should remain mostly in good shape, but secondary roads will be slick. Conditions are expected to improve Tuesday afternoon with partial clearing and temps rising above freezing in most locations.

The rest of this week will be dry and mild, with lots of sun and temps above average Wednesday through Saturday. Mountains and foothills may see some gusty southwest winds Friday into Saturday as flow aloft becomes southwesterly. By late on Sunday, clouds will increase with precip spreading across much of western CO from the Divide west, with snow level near 9000 ft. Models suggest upper level trough will move across CO on Monday, which will increase precip chances from western CO into the foothills and Urban Corridor Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning with snow level remaining in the 8000-9000 ft range. Mountains could see significant snow at higher elevations. The rest of next week should be mostly dry in our area, perhaps a few showers over the mountains on Wednesday, but mostly dry with temps near seasonal norms late next week. Models indicate some precip chances for CO next weekend, mostly over the mountains.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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